mvrv

$BTC BTC update : Bitcoin price recovery? 3 signals reveal why traders remain cautious
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight band between $89,000 and $93,000, a range defined by alternating phases of investor profitability and profit-taking. On-chain metrics suggest momentum is quietly strengthening beneath the surface, even as parts of the market remain cautious.
Glassnode data shows BTC drifting further above its True Market Mean Value at $81,900, pushing overall profitability higher. The#MVRV MVRV ratio ticked up to 1.67, while daily trading volume spiked to $22.6 billion. However, US spot ETF holders responded by shifting from accumulation to distribution, rotating from $134.2 million in net buys to $707.3 million in net outflows — reinforcing lingering bearish pressure.
In the derivatives market, skepticism remains elevated. The 25-delta skew climbed to 12.88%, signaling demand for downside hedging as traders paid a premium for protective puts.
Yet, market momentum continues to rebuild. The 14-day RSI surged from 38.6 to 58.2, moving above neutral levels and confirming an emerging uptrend. Supply in profit also increased to 67.3%, though this raises the risk of additional sell pressure during rallies.
Glassnode notes Bitcoin is showing early recovery signals but still operates within a sentiment backdrop shaped by volatility and macro uncertainty. Expert Analyst Shawn Young emphasized that unresolved macro factors are keeping BTC capped below $94,000, even as equities strengthen.
Short-term holders currently drive market structure. The STH-SOPR rising to 18.5% and Hot Capital Share at 39.9% indicate active positioning from newer entrants. While STHs remain at a net loss with an average cost near $109,000, sustained momentum could shift behavior toward holding as BTC aims to reclaim six figures.
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$BTC Bitcoin’s MVRV Signal Points to a $140K Target Before Any Deep Reset 📈🟪

Bitcoin has repeatedly tapped the MVRV +1SD band (🟪) at this cycle’s local tops — a level that historically aligns with overheated yet not blow-off conditions.

Right now, that band sits near $139.4K, which is nearly $50K above the current ~$91K price.

If BTC continues to respect this cyclical behavior, the risk–reward strongly tilts toward a push into the $140K region before any major correction unfolds.

Your projection highlights the volatility perfectly:
📊 $50K swings in either direction remain firmly on the table.

A run to ~$140K → then a deeper retest into the ~$40K zone is not unrealistic given BTC’s historical pattern of expansion followed by aggressive mean reversion.

In short:
Upside still has room before the real cycle top arrives — but the eventual correction could be just as violent.

Follow Wendy for more latest updates

#Bitcoin #MVRV #CryptoCycle

📉 The Liquidity Cascade: Using {BTC.D} and the {MVRV} Z-Score to Frontrun Altseason 🗓️

🔄 Reading the Rotation:

The {ETF} Effect on Altcoins
Bitcoin's consolidation phase, after a rally fuelled by {ETF} inflows, is historically the precursor to the Altcoin Season. ETF-driven profits exit {BTC} and rotate into higher-beta assets. However, the {Altcoin Season Index} is currently at a low of \mathbf{27} (Dec 2025), showing we are still early.

🎯 Multi-Factor Confirmation: {BTC.D} + \{MVRV} Signal
The best signal for the shift involves combining Bitcoin Dominance {BTC.D}) with the {MVRV} Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value).
{$BTC .D} Break: Wait for {BTC.D} to break and hold below the 56\% support line for a sustained period (2-3 weekly closes). This confirms liquidity is flowing out of Bitcoin.

{MVRV} Z-Score: Simultaneously, look for the \{MVRV} Z-Score to be rising from the 'Green Zone' (accumulation) but still remaining comfortably below the 'Red Zone' (overheating). This suggests the market has plenty of room to run without being overbought, creating a high-conviction entry point for altcoins.
#AltcoinSeason2025 #BTCdominance #MVRV #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSignal

Ethereum Eyes Key Support Amid Bearish Pressure

ETH retests critical support zones near $2,820–$2,830, with potential downside toward $2,200 if bearish patterns persist.

Ethereum (ETH) continues to face pressure after a 30% decline over the past three months. Recent price action shows ETH retesting the −0.5σ MVRV band near $2,820–$2,830, an important mid-cycle support level. Analysts suggest that a decisive breakdown here could drive ETH toward the $2,500–$2,200 range, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and previous demand clusters.

A bearish pennant pattern on the daily chart indicates a continuation of the downtrend, with the apex of a falling wedge potentially marking a local bottom around $2,200–$2,220. Conversely, a breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline could trigger a rebound toward $3,550, offering bullish potential. Traders should monitor these support and resistance levels carefully while managing risk, as market volatility remains elevated.

#Ethereum #MVRV #Write2Earn

ETH tests critical support levels, with potential downside to $2,200 but room for upside if patterns reverse.

Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice
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The $3,000 $ETH Wall Is A Lie

$ETH is currently the quiet giant. We are seeing textbook cautious optimism, holding the $3,000 line despite recent harsh market swings. Early Q4 buyers are deep underwater, yet the market hasn't capitulated. The MVRV ratio sits precisely at 1.27—the definition of neutrality. This is not a panic zone, nor is it euphoria; it is the calm before the structural shift. The realized price is $2,315, meaning current price is only 27% above the average cost basis. Smart money understands this. Staking flows are confirming a massive conviction trade, with 160,000 $ETH added to the network in just ten days. Key institutional players are stacking. Furthermore, the network is preparing for the December 3 Fusaka upgrade by raising the block gas limit from 45 million to 60 million. This dramatically increases throughput and reduces congestion. The fundamentals are strengthening rapidly while the sentiment remains flat. This is the setup for a high-conviction move. Do not mistake neutrality for weakness.

This is not financial advice.
#CryptoAnalysis #Ethereum #Fusaka #MVRV #DeFi
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$ETH Is Holding $3,000, But The Real Bomb Is Set To Detonate.

$ETH is locked in a seemingly painful consolidation around the $3,000 mark. While surface-level traders are focused on short-term lag compared to $BTC, the underlying fundamentals are setting up a massive structural shift.

The current MVRV ratio sits at 1.27, placing the market squarely in a neutral zone. This is critical: we are seeing neither panic capitulation nor overheated euphoria. It is a textbook accumulation phase supported by rising institutional conviction. Staking flows are accelerating, with major entities adding significant capital, confirming that smart money is not selling into this dip.

The approaching Fusaka upgrade is more than just a date on the calendar. Ahead of December 3, Ethereum proactively increased its block gas limit from 45 million to 60 million. This drastic boost to throughput addresses congestion and positions the network for superior performance post-upgrade. With neutral market sentiment, rising staking flows, and a massive capacity increase already deployed, $ETH is quietly establishing the perfect launchpad. Focus on the long-term foundation being laid, not the short-term noise.

This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#Ethereum #CryptoAnalysis #Fusaka #MVRV #TechStack
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The $BTC Floor Just Vaporized. 42% History Is Calling.

The defining metric of this entire cycle, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, just broke below its critical support level. This is not a slight dip; this is a structural failure.

The last time $BTC lost this specific on-chain floor, the market experienced a vicious 42% crash in the immediate aftermath. The key support that underpinned this entire rally is now eliminated. This breakdown signals that the foundation holding up the current price structure is gone. Prepare for panic exits and cascade liquidations to severely impact $ETH and all risk assets. This is the moment when patience is a liability.

This is not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #OnChain #MVRV #CryptoCrash
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Ethereum ($ETH ) is showing strong bullish signals! 🚀

The recent 15%+ rebound from lows, coupled with a bull flag pattern and positive on-chain data, suggests we could see significant upside momentum.
A key indicator, the MVRV deviation bands, shows ETH stabilizing near historical support, which has often been a launching pad for rallies toward $5,000!
The critical hurdle to watch? Holding above the 200-day EMA near $3,550 to confirm the bullish setup.
Can ETH reclaim $4,500 this October? Things are looking promising! 👀

#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #BullFlag #MVRV

Bitcoin($BTC ) hit bottom, according to the indicator
#MVRV 👀

The MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) indicator is a key thermometer that compares the current market value of bitcoin ($BTC ) with the price at which its coins were acquired on average. 📈

This reveals whether the market is overheated (overvalued) or oversold (undervalued).

🗞 More details

CryptoQuant warns: a "second hump of the camel" is forming on the BTC chart 🐪

🔍 The MVRV ratio indicates a possible beginning of a downtrend as early as the end of August — until September 10.

Analysts compare the current situation to market movements in 2021 — back then, the second peak ended with a strong correction.

📉 If the signal is confirmed — this could mark the beginning of a medium-term decline phase in the market.

❓ What do you think, will the 2021 scenario repeat? Or is the market already operating under new rules? Write in the comments 👇

#btc #bitcoin #crypto #CryptoQuant #MVRV
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#Bitcoin Shows Signs of Stabilization: Can $BTC Rebound Toward $120K?
Since mid-2025, institutional confidence in Bitcoin (#BTC ) has steadily increased, as the asset’s annualized volatility fell to near 30%, the lowest ever recorded in its history. This decline in volatility has drawn attention from long-term investors, signaling that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a purely speculative asset toward a more mature macro hedge in institutional portfolios.

Financial giant #JPMorgan recently emphasized that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, highlighting its evolving role in diversified investment strategies rather than simply being a speculative vehicle. This view aligns with a broader trend of growing institutional adoption, particularly among hedge funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries.

On-Chain Metrics #Signal Structural Strength
Several on-chain indicators reinforce the argument that Bitcoin’s current price may underestimate its intrinsic value.

#MVRV Ratio at 2.1: This metric, which compares market capitalization to realized value, remains well below overheated levels near 4, suggesting BTC is not in a speculative bubble.

Shrinking Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, reflecting a trend of long-term accumulation rather than short-term trading.

ETF Inflows: Despite volatility, exchange-traded fund inflows have remained steady, indicating sustained institutional demand.

Together, these indicators suggest a structurally bullish foundation, with both long-term holders and institutional investors supporting Bitcoin at current levels.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch...

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Bitcoin Oversold — Is Accumulation Underway?

Oversold metrics are signaling a potential buying opportunity. With the MVRV ratio at -11.5%, Bitcoin sits in a classic accumulation zone where long-term holders quietly accumulate supply.

The recent bounce, however, is not yet a confirmed trend—it reflects a short-term reaction driven by support levels holding firm and clear oversold conditions. While these signals highlight opportunity, a true reversal in momentum will require Bitcoin to reclaim and sustain $95,000.

Investors monitoring this phase can interpret it as a measured accumulation window. The market is quietly preparing, and those with patience may position themselves advantageously for the next significant move in BTC.

#BTC #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoAccumulation #MVRV #MarketInsight

Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? CryptoQuant Issues a Warning!

Recently, analysts at CryptoQuant have discovered some concerning signals through on-chain data, indicating that Bitcoin may be at the beginning of a bear market. While pullbacks in Bitcoin are not uncommon during a bull market, the current valuation indicators suggest that this adjustment could be deeper than before.

CryptoQuant's analysts found some troubling signals in the on-chain data. For instance, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator is currently at the most bearish level of this cycle, and the Z-score of the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has fallen below the 365-day moving average. This indicates that Bitcoin’s upward momentum has weakened.

Moreover, Bitcoin's demand is also contracting, and the pace at which whales are accumulating has slowed. Last week, Bitcoin's demand plummeted at the fastest rate since July 2024, dropping by 103,000 BTC in one go. It's not just the whales; the annual accumulation rate of other large investors has also significantly decreased, from 368,000 BTC in January to 268,000 BTC now.

What's more concerning is that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now become net sellers of BTC, in stark contrast to the frenzied buying seen during the same period last year. So far this year, these ETFs have only bought about $700 million worth of BTC, whereas last year around this time, they bought $8.7 billion. This adds additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

Additionally, the number of BTC flowing into the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, from other platforms has also fallen below the 90-day moving average. Since February 13, Coinbase has been in a price adjustment period, when BTC was approximately $96,000. Typically, when demand is high, BTC flows into Coinbase, but the situation has reversed now.

CryptoQuant's analysts also mentioned that if BTC cannot maintain the support level between $75,000 and $78,000, the price could drop to $63,000. As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at $83,400, while $63,000 is the lowest on-chain realized price range for traders.

Do you think Bitcoin has entered a bear market? Will Bitcoin rebound or continue to decline in the coming weeks? At this moment, would you choose to buy the dip or continue to wait and see?

#比特币 #熊市预警 #CryptoQuant #MVRV

🛑 BTC ready to move: STH MVRV indicates $115,000-120,000

According to data from CryptoQuant, the key on-chain indicator STH MVRV (market value to realized value ratio for short-term holders) signals a potential rise of Bitcoin to the $115,000-120,000 range.

This indicator reflects the behavior of "weak hands" - when short-term holders start to take profits, it often coincides with local maxima. Currently, the model shows that the potential for growth is not yet exhausted.

It is especially important that the signal is confirmed against the backdrop of declining retail interest - a classic combination for the start of a sustained bull movement. For me, the key level remains support at $100,000.

When on-chain metrics and price action synchronize - it is the strongest signal for careful examination of the asset.

make difference: your difference in the market. Hugging you 🫂
#bitcoin #CryptoQuantitative #CryptoQuant #MVRV $BTC

The CEO of CryptoQuant says that the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended, is Bitcoin's consolidation long-term?

Young Joo, the CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin prices may see a decline over the next six to twelve months.
Recent Bitcoin trading activity suggests that the cryptocurrency is entering a consolidation phase.
It seems that the cryptocurrency market has entered a phase of consolidation over the past few days.
The lack of any significant moves has led to a sense of doubt and skepticism among investors, which in turn has resulted in a wave of selling among short-term traders. In the meantime, the ETF sector and cryptocurrency reserves are still witnessing increased activity despite falling prices.

Confirming investors' worst fears, Ki Young Joo, the CEO of CryptoQuant, published a forecast about Bitcoin a few hours ago.
According to this forecast, Joo stated that the Bitcoin bull cycle has officially ended. He also pointed out that over the next six to twelve months, we can expect bearish or sideways prices.

Cryptocurrency communities have paid close attention to these predictions and discussed them enthusiastically. The CEO of CryptoQuant applied the PCA risk indicator to chain metrics such as MVRV and SOPR.
#CryptoQuant #sopr #MVRV
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🚨 ETHEREUM MVRV FLIPS BULLISH: NEXT LEG UP STARTING?

📈 Breaking: Ethereum's MVRV ratio just crossed into positive territory, signaling:

✅ Early accumulation phase

✅ Historically strong buy zone

✅ Average +82% gains post-cross

💎 Key Metrics:

🔹 Current MVRV: 1.02 (first time >1 since April)

🔹 Price Target: $3,800 based on 30-day MVRV trajectory

🔹 Exchange Reserves: At 5-year lows (supply squeeze incoming)

🚀 3 Smart Moves:

Buy ETH Now → 0% Fee Entry

Trade the Breakout → VIP Futures

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✨ Support Our Research:

"If this technical insight helps you profit, consider leaving a tip!"

⚠️ Historical Window: 90-day average return after this
signal: +58%

#Ethereum #MVRV #TechnicalAnalysis #ETH

❗️The next 6–12 months will be bearish or show sideways price movement, as the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended – CEO #CryptoQuant Ki Yong Joo.

Among the indicators, he noted the market value to realized value ratio (#MVRV ), the spent coin output ratio (#SOPR ), and net unrealized profit or loss (#NUPL ) – these indicators showed turning points in past market cycles.

💡 Some users reminded that in 2020 CryptoQuant already gave a false sell signal #BTC .
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