"In 2026, $BTC will transition to growth, but the shocking events of early February were not the final bottom for the asset. This was stated by Bitwise's investment director Matt Hougan on the Blockspace podcast. Hougan admits that the asset's correction is not over:"
"There are often one or two major jolts. I wouldn't be shocked by a repeat of such an event in the future."
He disagreed with the opinion that the record liquidation on October 11, exceeding $19 billion, marked the beginning of a bear market. According to Hogan, the crypto winter started in January 2025 after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump. At that time, a sell-off began outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Institutional investors reacted slowly to the situation, which led to a loss of $19 billion. This event confirmed the onset of the crypto winter, crashing both leading digital assets.
Historically, price movements $BTC occurred within four-year cycles related to halvings. After the block reward is reduced, the asset's price initially rises, then sometimes crashes by 80-90%.
Hogan believes that with the massive influx of large players into the industry, the depth of such declines will decrease to 50-60%. He linked this to the fact that institutional and retail traders operate in different cycles — when one cohort sells, the other may buy.
"This is the new reality we find ourselves in," Hogan said.
Worrisome signals for Bitcoin
Retail traders holding less than 0.01 BTC aggressively buy cryptocurrency at every slight price dip. In contrast, institutional investors (10-10,000 BTC) have sold a 'huge volume' of the asset in the last five weeks, which Santiment pointed out.
Experts from the company called such divergence 'worrisome.'
"Historically, sustainable bull markets require accumulation by 'smart money,' rather than retail purchases during dips," they explained.
Santiment specialists pointed out another negative trend for Bitcoin — the volume of on-chain transactions, the number of new addresses, and the growth rate of the network are steadily declining.
"Real market expansion must be supported by increased user activity, which is currently not observed," the experts noted.
At the same time, they provided positive signals:
the number of extremely optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin's price has decreased on social media, which is a 'healthy market indicator';
The 30-day MVRV ratio for the first cryptocurrency was -6, confirming a fairly high probability of a recovery rally.
There will be no quick rebound
Bitcoin rarely forms V-shaped lows outside of periods of economic stimulus, as during COVID-19 times. Typically, once hitting the bottom, the asset tends to stay at that level for quite some time. This was stated by macroeconomist Lyn on the Coin Stories podcast.
"I think we are currently in a state of stagnation," she noted.
During this 'prolonged phase,' the price may drop another $10,000-20,000, Alden acknowledged.
In her opinion, a catalyst for the next major rally of the first cryptocurrency could be a peak in AI company stocks. When investors understand that the segment is no longer growing as rapidly as before, they will start looking for alternatives for potentially profitable investments. Bitcoin could become one of those assets. Moreover, for the digital gold to resume its growth, a large influx of capital is not needed — just a slight increase in demand, Alden explained.