Brothers, regarding the matter of Dogecoin, I still say this — the ETF thing, it's better to come at the right time than to come early.
According to current insider information (including tweets from several institutions tracking crypto ETFs and the SEC's internal timeline), the Dogecoin-related ETF (likely futures-linked, not involving spot for now) is very likely to have substantial progress next week, and direct approval cannot be ruled out. Don't get caught up in whether it is 'authentic spot'; getting hung up on this at this time is completely missing the point — the key is that it just happens to fall within the market-sensitive window after the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, which is the most critical 'timing'.
One, why do we say 'clever'? Rate cut window + sentiment gap, funds are just waiting for a spark.
First, understand the current market's 'itch points': after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September, market liquidity loosened, but money hasn't found a clear speculation direction—Bitcoin is fluctuating between 45,000 and 48,000, Ethereum's ecosystem is dragged by its merger iteration, and other altcoins are either 'small meme coins' (under 500 million in market value) lacking consensus or institutional coins (like CRO) lacking sentiment. At this time, the Dogecoin ETF is the thing that can 'fill the sentiment gap'.
1. The 'speculative inertia' of funds after rate cuts.
Historical data shows: when the Bitcoin ETF was approved in 2024, it coincided with the Fed's first rate cut one month earlier, and at that time, the funds flowing into the ETF reached 2.3 billion dollars in a single day, directly driving Bitcoin from 32,000 to 48,000. The current situation is similar—after the rate cut, risk appetite has returned, but retail funds are reluctant to easily touch niche coins, so they need a target that is 'both familiar and has topics', and Dogecoin just fits that.
Moreover, the expected funding amount for the Dogecoin ETF has references: according to Bloomberg analysts, even for a futures ETF, the initial daily subscription scale could reach 500-800 million dollars, which is enough to support a short-term market of 15%-20% for Dogecoin, which currently has a market value of 36 billion (referring to the elasticity of Dogecoin, which rose 30% with a single influx of 500 million dollars last year).
2. 'Sufficient narrative' is more important than 'how pure the product is'.
Don't be discouraged by 'not being a spot ETF', you have to know that when the Ethereum futures ETF was approved in 2023, it was initially criticized as 'not authentic', but the funds flowing in the first week still broke 1 billion dollars, driving ETH from 1800 to 2400. The core logic of Dogecoin has never been about 'asset attributes', but rather 'emotional attributes'—as long as the ETF launch can bring in 'new funds + community enthusiasm', what does it matter if it's spot or futures?
Just like in 2021, when Musk posted a Dogecoin meme, it could drive the price from 0.05 to 0.74; now with the ETF as a 'compliance entry', even if it's a futures type, it can attract a group of 'newbies who dare not buy coins privately but dare to buy ETFs' (like retail investors in the US buying through Robinhood), that's the key.
Two, why do we say 'ignition still depends on Dogecoin'? It is the only established meme that can rally support.
In the entire altcoin season, if you want to find something that can withstand selling pressure and also pull sentiment, you still have to look at Dogecoin. I'm not boasting, but its 'consensus foundation' is right there:
1. Compared to 'small meme coins': it has an 'undying grassroots base'.
Recently, several small meme coins that were popular (like a certain animal-themed new coin) relied on hype to rise, but when they fell, there was no one to catch the fall—less than 500 million in market value, with fewer than 100,000 holding addresses, a slight sell-off leads to 'a total disaster', ending up in a mess.
But Dogecoin is different: as of the end of September, it had over 4.8 million holding addresses, with 38% being 'long-term holders' who have held for over a year (Glassnode data). The topic tag #DogeCoin on Twitter has accumulated over 8 billion discussions, three times more than the second place, Shiba Inu. What does this mean? Even if there is selling pressure in the short term, there are plenty of retail investors willing to buy—last May, when Dogecoin dropped from 0.32 to 0.21, at least 10 of my friends added to their positions, which is the consensus of 'one call gathers a hundred responses'.
2. Musk's 'implicit endorsement' is still there.
Don't think that Musk is mentioning Dogecoin less now; in fact, his actions haven't stopped: in early September, Tesla's official website added a DOGE payment deposit feature (although only for the US Model 3/Y), and over 2,000 orders were placed within 10 days; last week he also replied to the Dogecoin community on X platform, saying 'DOGE Chain (Layer 2) testing is progressing faster than expected'—this isn't overtly bullish, but for long-term holders, this is a 'comforting pill'.
Last year, at the peak of 0.32 dollars, I added a position of 6 million coins (costing about 2 million at that time), and when it dropped to 0.21 and 0.18, I thought about running—but every time I saw Tesla's payment data and the community was still discussing the ETF, I felt 'it's not the right time yet'. Now my holding cost averages around 0.28, and when it hit 0.33, I didn't reduce my position—not because I am foolish, but because I understand Dogecoin's temperament: it has never risen based on fundamentals but on 'consensus + events', and this ETF is the biggest event this year.
Three, can we achieve 'single coin A8' this year? Let's break down the goals and risks.
Many brothers ask, 'Can we rely on Dogecoin for single coin A8' (meaning assets reaching 10 million), let's not make empty promises, let's break it down rationally:
1. What conditions does 'single coin A8' require?
Based on my current holding of 6 million coins, to reach 10 million in assets, the price of Dogecoin needs to rise to 1.67 dollars; if I hold 3 million coins, it needs to rise to 3.33 dollars. Can this goal be achieved?
Look at history: Dogecoin peaked at 0.74 dollars in 2021, without an ETF, without Tesla payments, and without Layer 2; now with the ETF as a 'compliance entry', if it can replicate the emotional heat of 2021 and add in the liquidity after rate cuts, reaching 1.5-2 dollars is not impossible—referring to Bitcoin's 50% rise after ETF approval, Dogecoin's elasticity is 3-4 times that of Bitcoin, rising 150% to 1.2 dollars is not hard, and there is also a chance to push towards 1.67.
Just a reminder: this requires three conditions to be met at the same time: 'ETF exceeds expectations + Musk supports again + the market cooperates', it's difficult with just one missing.
2. Don't ignore the risks: 'good news has run its course' and 'volatility trap'.
It's not to pour cold water, but to be objective:
What if the ETF lands and 'good news has run its course'? On the day Solana ETF was approved in 2024, SOL rose by 12%, but the next day it fell by 8% because funds 'speculated in advance and cashed in upon landing'. If Dogecoin rises too much in advance (like rising to 0.4), it might actually trap people on the day of the ETF landing.
The 'volatility nature' of Dogecoin hasn't changed: it can rise by 28% in one day (like on September 20), and it can also drop by 15% in three days (like in mid-August); if the position is too heavy, a single correction may lead to a forced sell-off— the reason I can hold on is that this part of my position only accounts for 20% of my crypto assets, so even a 30% drop doesn't affect the overall.
Four, let's talk frankly: those who laugh last are always the ones who 'understand the logic + can hold on'.
When the market hasn't exploded, saying 'Dogecoin can A8' will surely make someone laugh—just like in 2020 when I said Dogecoin could reach 0.5, some people said 'you're crazy', but in 2021 it reached 0.74. But when the market really explodes, you will find that those who laughed either 'sold out early' or 'only chased high after it rose'.
Dogecoin is essentially a 'game of consensus'—if you believe in its consensus and are willing to wait for events to materialize, go for it; if not, then don't touch it. But don't criticize it as 'air' while envying others who hold and double their investments.
Brothers, how long have you held onto your Dogecoin? Do you think it can reach over 1.5 dollars this year and achieve a single coin A8? Let's discuss in the comments.
If you want to track the Dogecoin ETF approval progress, intraday fund flows, and 'single coin A8' position management techniques (like how to set stop-loss and take-profit, and how to average costs), feel free to follow Dong Ge's crypto talks—here we don't hype, we just discuss the real holding logic, market sentiment, and risks, helping you navigate the volatility of Dogecoin without missing out or getting stuck, sharing more practical insights on crypto investment.
