On Monday, influenced by heightened uncertainty over the Fed's monetary policy and mixed signals from the technology sector, U.S. stock index futures fell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also declining. This drop comes just before the release of key economic data and earnings reports, including quarterly performance reports from leading AI companies.
Nvidia Corporation
Nvidia (NVDA) is the core force behind the recent rise in technology stocks.
The Fed will release the minutes from its October meeting on Wednesday, and traders are closely watching the further direction of the central bank's interest rate path. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in October, but the decision was divisive, with two members voting against it. Fed Governor Stephen Miland advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmidt opposed any rate cut. Traders currently estimate the probability of another rate cut at the Fed's December meeting to be about 50%.
It was 67% a week ago, now it has decreased.
Disagreements within the central bank have heightened market tensions.
Nvidia is a major driver of the artificial intelligence industry's development, facing increased scrutiny ahead of its earnings report on November 19. Due to concerns about overvaluation and the emergence of an 'AI bubble,' Nvidia's market value has fallen from a peak of $5 trillion to $4.5 trillion.
Despite analysts expecting strong revenue growth—FactSet predicts $54.8 billion—even with a decline in quarterly sales, some investors remain cautious. Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners is the only analyst on Wall Street to give the company’s stock a 'sell' rating. He believes that Nvidia's dominance may only be temporary. 'Since April, Nvidia's performance in the AI sector has lagged behind that of other companies,' he said, pointing out that the oversupply from chipmaker TSMC and low corporate adoption of AI are major risk factors.
Volatility in the technology sector has been exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds.
Bitcoin
As a barometer of risk appetite, Bitcoin's price has erased its gains from the beginning of the year, falling below $93,000. Concerns over tariffs during the Trump era and profit-taking by long-term holders have intensified the sell-off. Meanwhile, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and the delayed release of the September U.S. employment report, overall market anxiety remains high, as both reports could influence the Fed's next steps.
Additionally, reports indicate that the first long-term liquefied petroleum gas import agreement reached between India and the United States is seen as a strategic initiative aimed at diversifying energy supply and addressing trade imbalances with Washington. Under this agreement, Indian state-owned refineries will purchase 2.2 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas annually from the U.S. Gulf Coast, marking a shift in India's energy supply sources from traditional suppliers like Qatar and the UAE to the U.S. The agreement is based on the Mont Belvieu benchmark price, aiming to reduce India's dependence on the volatile Middle Eastern market and responding to President Donald Trump's call to strengthen energy ties.
