Based on the position volumes of large players in Bitcoin, it is evident that the number of coins accumulated by them during this four-month price decline $BTC is currently near historical highs. This observation is based on strict statistics, not on the subjective opinions of market participants.
According to COT (Commitments of Traders) reports, which are published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the size of long positions among the category of non-commercial traders in Bitcoin futures on CME has reached levels close to historical highs. It is important to understand that we are talking specifically about the regulated derivatives market in the US, where data transparency is significantly higher than on cryptocurrency exchanges outside the US, which gives these signals additional weight in the eyes of institutional investors.
In commodity markets, commercial traders are traditionally considered the "smart money": they know the fundamental balance of supply and demand in their industry better than anyone else. However, in digital assets, the structure of participants has a somewhat different specificity.
In the case of Bitcoin, there are virtually no producers hedging risks through futures. Miners can use hedging tools, but their share in the CME futures market does not dominate as farmers do in grain markets. Therefore, the role of smart money here shifts to non-commercial, while small non-reportable traders, on the contrary, historically serve as a contrarian indicator. When the crowd is maximally bearish, large players often begin to accumulate the asset.
Twice already in this cycle
The closest historical analogs of the current situation are September 2023 and April 2025. In both cases, a similar extreme entry of large players at the maximum capital size coincided with a local price bottom of Bitcoin.
This is a pattern that is observed when analyzing medium-term and long-term market cycles: when "smart money" starts to accumulate an asset amid general pessimism, it often precedes a significant price movement.
After the September 2023 low (around $25,000), a powerful rally of more than 190% followed — Bitcoin reached $73,000 by March 2024, and then $109,800 in early 2025. This growth was driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, the "Trump factor", and the influx of capital through spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and several other major market participants.
After April 2025, there was also a rise of about +70%, to an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. However, this rally proved to be less sustainable: the subsequent pullback returned quotes to current levels. Volatility in the second case was stronger, which is typical for overheated markets. In the current situation, the volume of longs slightly lags behind the two precedents mentioned above, which may indicate a more cautious mood among institutions, but the overall direction remains bullish.
"It only takes one piece of news"
If we look at the charts, on the weekly time frame, the price of Bitcoin reached the 200-day moving average, bounced off it on quite decent volumes, and from the candlestick patterns, it can be seen that a clear bottom is forming.
The nature of the price movement also suggests that it only takes one serious piece of news for the downward trend to shift to an upward or at least sideways consolidation followed by a breakout upwards. If such an impulse occurs, there is a high probability that BTC will go to close the "gap" between $70,000 and $95,000 in the coming month. What this news will be — another "Trump factor case", the re-election of the head of the US Federal Reserve, an "unexpected" rate cut, or another "black swan" — is an open question, but something from this is quite likely to trigger the price.
"The fundamentals are strengthening"
Large players are currently accumulating long positions in Bitcoin at an accelerated pace. This indicates that professional market participants see value at current levels, despite the negative information background.
By itself, this is not a buy signal, and it is important not to make a mistake here. Many traders lose capital trying to enter the market early, expecting a reversal that may take time. COT data describes the condition, not a trigger. They say: the ground for an upward reversal is forming. The fundamentals are strengthening, but the building has not yet begun to rise.
Until the price has definitively confirmed the reversal with its movement, this is just potential, not a signal. Patience is a key quality in such periods of uncertainty.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $63,000 — approximately 50% lower than the October all-time high of $126,000. Such a deep corrective movement is typical for crypto assets after reaching new peaks, however, it evokes a strong emotional reaction from participants.
The market is experiencing extreme fear: the "fear and greed" index dropped to single-digit values — 5. Historically, zones of extreme fear often coincide with points that are favorable for medium-term investment, but catching the bottom "on the fly" is practically impossible.
The direct price trigger has not yet emerged, and we need to observe at what level it will appear and keep our finger on the pulse. The market may test liquidity below current values before the actual movement.
In my opinion, such a trigger — a signal to increase the probability of forming a local minimum — could be a breakthrough of the $72,500 mark and a consolidation above it. This level will return the medium-term trend to a neutral zone and confirm the strength of buyers.