📉 🔥Fed September: Rate Cut – Certain or Still Hesitant?
The FOMC meeting on September 16-17 is the focus of global attention. After several months of cooling inflation but still not reaching the 2% target, along with signs of a weakening labor market, most analysts believe that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points.
🔎 Key points:
1. Growth pressure: The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing down, with many companies reporting reduced hiring and weakened consumption.
2. Persistent inflation: CPI remains around 2.9-3%, higher than the target, making it difficult for the Fed to cut too deeply.
3. Market expectations: Futures contracts have reflected over 90% likelihood of the Fed reducing interest rates in September.
⚠️ Risks: If the newly released inflation data is hotter than expected, or if global financial markets experience significant volatility, the Fed may choose to adopt a “soft talk – slow action” approach, meaning a slight reduction but maintaining a cautious tone.
🎯 Expected impact:
• Stocks & Crypto: Money flows may continue to pour into risk assets, creating a short-term euphoria.
• USD & Gold: A weaker USD will support rising gold prices.
• Crypto mid-cap & altcoin: May benefit the most from expectations of rate cuts.