Many people like to ask: Is there any trading indicator that can see through the market at a glance?
To be honest, no. A single indicator in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is just a joke. However, over time I have summarized a few reliable "observation points" that I can share:
1. CEX funding rates
The funding rates of perpetual contracts can intuitively reflect long and short sentiments. In extreme situations, these can be contrary indicators. For example, a few days ago, the ETH funding rate skyrocketed, resulting in a surge in spot prices, burying all high leverage positions.
2. On-chain active addresses and real interactions
It's not about the number of wallets but rather the depth of interaction. For example, with Pendle and Pump, users are actively engaging on-chain, and the active curve's correlation with token prices is very clear. Conversely, some projects with air tokens claim to have hundreds of thousands of community users, while the on-chain activity is dead silent.
3. Large transfers and smart money movements
One advantage of on-chain data is that you can see the movements of whales. Particularly, the entry and exit of known addresses often act as a barometer. During the mid-stage of a bull market, the points where smart money enters in large scale often mark the starting point of a major rally.
4. BTC.D (Bitcoin market dominance)
This is an indicator that must be watched during altcoin seasons. Once BTC.D continuously declines, funds flow from Bitcoin to altcoins, which is when the main event begins. Observing the TOTAL3 curve in conjunction with BTC.D is very accurate.
My own experience is:
Indicators are not used for prediction but for "confirmation." Market movements often stem from macro factors or narratives, but indicators can help you judge whether funds have actually entered and if the market is keeping up.
——Don't blindly trust indicators; they are not prophets, just your rearview mirror and navigation device.