Over the past weekend, the price $BTC fluctuated from $63,000 to $66,000. Analysts noted the high resilience of the segment: the round-the-clock nature of trading allowed investors to quickly manage risks while traditional platforms were closed.
Dominic John from Kronos Research emphasized that cryptocurrencies quickly regained positions after local downturns. Chief analyst at CoinEx, Jeff Ko, added: Bitcoin held around $66,000 even amidst stock sell-offs in Asia. In his opinion, the market perceived the price spike as a temporary phenomenon rather than a signal of a prolonged decline.
Macroeconomic pressure: indices and oil
Traditional markets opened lower after the weekend. The Japanese index Nikkei 225 lost about 2.5%, while the broader Topix fell nearly 3%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng and Singapore's Straits Times dropped by about 2%.
At the same time, Brent oil prices rose by more than 8.38%, to $78.9 per barrel. Gold increased in price by 2.05%, to $5386.
Presto Research analyst Rick Maeda called oil a key conduit for macro shocks to the crypto industry. In his opinion, a barrel price consolidation above $90 will strengthen inflation expectations and bolster the dollar. This will reduce liquidity, causing cryptocurrencies to react more sharply.
The market avoided cascading liquidations and destabilization of stablecoins. The uninterrupted operation of futures platforms like Hyperliquid helped the market absorb the shock in real-time.
Traders will continue to monitor oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and inflation.
Has the volatility increased temporarily, or are the markets awaiting a long-term liquidity squeeze? This will become clear in the near future.
Resilience of the crypto market
Analysts at QCP Capital noted the return of quotes in the crypto market to previous levels. Due to sharp fluctuations in rates, algorithms liquidated long positions totaling about $300 million. Experts described the volume of closures as moderate compared to the massive deleveraging in early February.
Low liquidation figures indicate that traders have proactively reduced risks. The role of Bitcoin as a 'weekend hedge' is gradually shifting to tokenized gold. It is also traded around the clock and attracts some capital during periods of instability.
The stability of the market is also confirmed by derivatives metrics. A temporary spike in expected volatility to 93% turned out to be lower than last week's values at a similar price level.
Market participants were prepared for sharp movements, QCP believes. Analysts saw signs of a repeat of last June's scenario: at that time, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 over the weekend, recovered on Monday, and a few weeks later updated its maximum at $123,000.
Expectations of large capital
Despite local drawdowns, major players are betting on long-term growth. On February 28, significant purchases of March call options were recorded:
1000 contracts with a strike of $74,000;
4000 contracts with a strike of $75,000 (expiration — March 27).
Such trades confirm traders' calculations for a spring rebound after five months of decline.
Despite positive signals from the market, QCP experts recommend exercising caution: further price movements will depend on the geopolitical situation and macroeconomic background.
Buy signal
Most investors who bought Bitcoin in the last two years are currently at a loss. According to the analyst using the pseudonym Crypto Dan, further price declines could present a good opportunity to enter the market.
According to him, 'reverse logic' often works in investment markets. Sharp crashes occur when the majority makes excessive profits. Conversely, strong rallies begin after the majority of investors face significant losses.
The analyst believes that a drop in digital gold below the mark of $60,000 will increase the share of unprofitable positions. Almost everyone will be in the red, except for long-term holders of the asset. According to the expert, this moment will be optimal for aggressive purchases.
Crypto Dan also added that the lack of a clear strategy often leads to doubts when opening or closing trades. In the current market conditions, he recommends that investors define specific trading criteria in advance.