March 20 options expiration heavy data released: BTC 23,000 contracts expiring, Put/Call Ratio 0.88 (slightly bullish but not strong), maximum pain point $70,000, nominal value $1.6 billion! ETH 176,000 contracts expiring, PCR 1.04 (slightly bearish), maximum pain point $2,150, nominal value $370 million. This round of rebound is basically cooling down, BTC once broke the $70,000 mark, last week the frequently mentioned $75K resistance level accumulated 5% positions, ultimately the sprint failed and fell back! Next Friday is the quarterly large expiration, $75K is still the largest concentrated area of positions, a strong resistance level; below $65K/$62K/$60K support is dense, preventing a second bottom test. This week's IV stabilized (BTC main term 50%, ETH 70%), RV continues to fall, VRP rises, volatility expectations are decreasing. Only 5% of total positions expire, setting a record low, trading activity is extremely low! Skew has fully retreated, the market is heavily bearish, bullish power is extremely weak, do not rush to bottom-fish in the short term, continue to observe signals for the long term.
