The crypto market opened in red, and Bitcoin (BTC) is once again the center of attention after a drop that brought it to test levels close to $104,000.
In the last 48 hours, the ecosystem has faced a combination of factors that explain the sharp decline:
🚨 1. Mass liquidations:
More than $6.000 million in leveraged positions were removed from the market, generating a wave of forced sales and increasing volatility.
🐋 2. Whale movements:
Large holders have moved hundreds of millions in BTC to exchanges, which could indicate preparation for sale or rotation to other assets.
🏦 3. Mixed institutional flows:
Bitcoin ETFs recorded some recent net outflows, slowing the buying pressure that had driven prices weeks ago.
🌍 4. Tense geopolitical outlook:
Trade tensions between the US and China have caused an increase in global risk aversion, affecting both stock markets and cryptocurrencies.
📉 5. Key technical zone:
Bitcoin is oscillating between $104k and $125k, with critical support at $104k.
Breaking it with volume could trigger a new wave of sales, while bouncing from that zone could pave the way for a recovery towards $118k–$124k.
🔎 Short-term analysis (24–72h):
According to the current market behavior:
📉 50% probability of bearish continuation (BTC retesting $104k or even briefly falling below).
🔁 35% probability of a technical bounce towards $118k–$124k if the pressure stabilizes.
⚖️ 15% probability of sideways movement between $110k and $125k while the market digests the situation.
🧭 What to watch:
Net flows in ETFs (inflows = recovery / outflows = bearish pressure).
Whale movements to exchanges.
News about US–China relations.
Volume and closes below or above $104k.
📊 Conclusion:
Bitcoin remains the market's barometer.
For now, the short-term trend maintains a bearish bias, but a technical bounce remains possible if institutional buyers re-enter.
The next session will be decisive: the market will define whether we are facing a simple correction… or the beginning of a deeper bearish phase.
💬 What do you think?
Do you think Bitcoin is preparing for a bounce or that we have not yet seen the bottom?
Leave your analysis in the comments 👇
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