I. Macroeconomic and Risk Outlook:

Recent Events of Interest: The stablecoin conference on the 21st and the higher CPI forecast on the 24th, with expectations that the market may release negative news in advance.

Fear Index (Vix): It is expected that panic needs to reoccur to create opportunities for the next wave of bottom-fishing in the crypto and stock markets.

Safe-Haven Assets (Xau/Gold): Continues to hit new highs, indicating that safe-haven funds and national strategic funds are still flowing in.

II. Traditional Market Analysis:

Nasdaq (Nas): Significant rebound before the market opens, followed by a volume contraction rally and sideways adjustment at the start of the Asian session, viewed as a natural rebound, lacking capital support, with a larger expectation for further adjustments.

Japanese Stocks: Maintain a bullish trend, focus on the 47700 resistance level; if broken, the adjustment may end.

III. Cryptocurrency Market Overview:

Bitcoin Market Cap Share (Btc.d): Retraced to the middle of the range, expected to continue declining, benefiting the rebound performance of Ethereum (Eth) and altcoins.

USDT Market Cap Share (Usdt.d): Touched the key position of 4.64%, currently seeing sideways oscillation, needs to wait for a breakout to clarify direction (an upward breakout would suggest a long position). Expected to consolidate for two days before rising again.

Total Market Cap of Altcoins (Total2): Expected to pull back to stabilize at $1.5\text{T}$, then break out and rise.

IV. Specific Cryptocurrency Strategies:

Ethereum/Bitcoin (Ethbtc): Pressured by the trend line, but after a pullback, it will be a good opportunity to heavily invest in Ethereum and altcoins, suggesting that the altcoin season may arrive by the end of the month.

Bitcoin (Btc): Weak rebound strength, in a sideways oscillation, increasing risk factor.

Ethereum (Eth): Still in a bullish arrangement, trend unbroken, plans to continue holding.

Altcoins: Although the rebound is acceptable, the resistance on the 4-hour chart is a hard injury. Right-side trading needs to wait for a 4-hour level breakout. In terms of operations, strong altcoins can be chosen, but the focus should be on wave trading with a 5-minute level entry.

Core Viewpoint:

The market is influenced by expectations of macro events, while the traditional market shows signs of adjustment. In terms of cryptocurrency, the author believes the market focus will shift to Ethereum and altcoins (bearish on Btc.d, optimistic about Ethbtc after a pullback), with Bitcoin currently showing weak rebound and in dangerous oscillation. In terms of operations, a cautiously optimistic attitude towards altcoins is preferred, leaning towards wave trading after a breakout or stabilization after a pullback. #BTC #eth