In recent months, the crypto market has shown signs of fragility. Large liquidations, significant drops in altcoins, and macroeconomic pressure have raised questions: are we entering a bear market? Or is it just a deep correction within a still bullish cycle? In this article, we provide a comprehensive analysis — technical, on-chain, derivatives, macro, and sentimental — to identify the most relevant indications and present plausible scenarios, with guidance for content creators on Binance.
1. Current panorama and context
The market as a whole has shrunk from peak to peak, with Bitcoin and Ethereum undergoing significant adjustments. At the same time, liquidation data shows that billions of dollars have been liquidated recently, suggesting an intense removal of leverage. There is a correlation with the strengthening dollar, still high interest rates, and lower risk appetite among institutional investors.
This scenario provides a conducive backdrop for downward movements to deepen, should structural levels fail to hold.
2. Technical warning signs
Break of structural supports: closing below the 200-day moving average (MA-200) often serves as a watershed moment between bull and bear markets. If Bitcoin remains below this level sustainably, there is a clear signal of a downtrend.
Momentum divergences: when the price makes higher highs or lower lows, but indicators like RSI and MACD show lower highs/lows, it indicates a loss of buying strength.
Weak confirmation volume: declines with significant volume and timid recoveries are typical of a declining market.
Volume profile (VPVR / Market Profile): if the price breaks an area where there has historically been a lot of volume, the movement may accelerate due to a lack of supporting liquidity.
3. On-chain indicators that matter
MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value): when market value falls near or below the average realized value, many holders become 'underwater', increasing the probability of selling under pressure.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): indicates whether coins are being moved with profit or loss. SOPR consistently below 1 is a sign that many are realizing losses.
Dormancy / Coin Days Destroyed: if 'dormant' coins that have been inactive for a long time start to move, this may indicate that old holders are exiting.
Exchange netflow: net influx of coins to exchanges is a sign of possible future selling; the opposite (net outflow) may indicate accumulation.
Miner revenue / mining pressure: if the cost of mining operations exceeds revenue, miners may have to sell to cover expenses, generating downward pressure.
4. Derivatives and market structure
Open Interest vs Volume: growth in OI without supporting volume may indicate a leverage bubble — susceptible to abrupt breakage.
Extreme funding rates: very positive rates (longs pay shorts) or very negative rates (shorts pay longs) signal euphoria or capitulation.
Leverage liquidations: large liquidations occur when leverage is stretched too far; recent record events show market vulnerability.
Order depth (book): if buy orders at key levels are weak, a small sell push can cause collapse.
5. Macro and sentiment
Dollar Index (DXY): a strong dollar tends to pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Interest rates and expectations of cuts: a prolonged high-interest scenario reduces liquidity in the system.
Institutional flow / ETFs: outflow of institutional capital may signal discomfort from a more robust market.
Fear & Greed Index / social media: fear indices or declines in mentions of 'Bitcoin', 'altcoin', 'DeFi' suggest a loss of retail interest.
Correlation with traditional markets: in times of stress, cryptocurrencies tend to follow declines in stocks or emerging markets.
6. Plausible scenarios and probabilities
Neutral scenario / deep correction: the market suffers an additional drop of 20-30% but finds support at average levels. If BTC can regain above the weekly MA-200, the uptrend is still not dead.
Moderate bear scenario: a drop of 40-60% from current levels, with a clear break of supports, leading to capitulation in altcoins and prolonged adjustment.
Severe capitulation scenario: loss of > 60%, broad breakdown of multiple on-chain metrics (MVRV << 1, massive outflow to exchanges), and the market in a multi-semester downtrend.
Based on the current risk panel (scores: Technical 65 / On-chain 55 / Derivatives 75 / Macro 60), I estimate we are on the threshold between aggressive correction and possible cycle turning. If technical triggers are activated (weekly BTC close below MA-200 + persistence of selling flow), we may consider that the bear market has begun.
