Old thinking doesn't work anymore! Today, I'll break down the new logic of altcoins in plain language to help you avoid 90% of the pitfalls.
Many people think that the reason altcoins can't rise is due to a lack of funding, but in my view, the core issues are twofold: a lack of 'confidence that can retain funds'.
First, the story is much bigger than reality. In the past two years, many altcoins have filled their white papers with 'the future will disrupt the industry', but they don't even have a test version of an application, let alone actual business support. It's important to know that the era where you could fly just by talking in 2017 and 2021 has been completely eliminated by the market — now, funds only recognize 'things that can be implemented'; no one buys into empty promises.
The second issue is that valuations have already been inflated to the ceiling. After 2021, many institutions have pushed prices to ridiculous levels in early rounds of small coins, listing with valuations in the tens of billions as soon as they hit exchanges. Ordinary people diving in are essentially taking on 'high-position discs'; let alone profit, just avoiding being trapped is a success, and there’s essentially no room for making money.
What's more critical is that the market logic has changed: funds are increasingly gravitating toward 'certainty,' resembling the playbook of mature markets — the leading tier accounts for nearly 90% of market activity, the stability of mainstream coins is becoming more apparent, while smaller altcoins have gradually turned into a 'transit area for funds,' lacking sustained value.
Even the project parties have become cautious: no longer casually pushing prices up. Why? Once the price rises, early holders may 'dump and exit,' which not only fails to build market consensus but may also trap their own positions. So now many small coins drop 'to zero' right after listing, leaving no window for short-term speculation; newcomers looking to make quick money have no chance to enter the market.
In my view, the altcoins that can survive and still rise now are concentrated in 'those with real business' tracks: for example, those engaged in digitalization of real assets, payment tracks in grounded scenarios, and ecological coins of compliant exchanges... As for those small coins purely relying on 'future narratives,' they have basically been filtered out by the market; encountering them again is just handing out money.
If newcomers truly want to minimize losses and maximize gains in altcoins, these three iron rules must be engraved in their hearts:
First, only chase short-term pulse opportunities; take the profit and leave, don't get greedy and cling to the fight. Altcoins have no 'long-term value'; hesitating for a second may turn profits into losses.
Second, choose coins accurately and act quickly. Altcoin market trends often last only a few hours; by the time you finish deliberating, the profits have long been taken away by others.
Third, wait for the next round of market easing before taking action, but competition will be fiercer then. By that time, one must understand the grounding logic of projects, distinguish between true and false narratives, and time buying and selling accurately; otherwise, one may still suffer significant losses.
Finally, let me say something straightforward to newcomers: don't blindly rush into altcoins. If you really want to test the waters, first memorize these three rules, and don't fall back into the old mindset of 'previous small coins could rise' and buy recklessly. If you want to understand a certain track (like the digitalization of real assets), or if you're unsure whether to sell the small coins in your possession, feel free to leave a comment; I will break it down, and we can avoid pitfalls together!
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