Narrow fluctuations are often the prelude to a storm. While everyone's attention is focused on the daily chart, the 1-hour chart has quietly signaled a change in trend.
The 1-hour candlestick chart of SOL/USDT you provided contains information far beyond imagination. The current price is oscillating very narrowly around $136.88, with a fluctuation of only 0.27% in the past 24 hours, and the strength of bulls and bears is in a stalemate here.
But true traders understand that extreme volatility compression often means a huge one-sided trend is about to erupt.
01 Key Technical Levels Fully Explained: Bulls and Bears Fiercely Battle at the $137 Line
From your clear 1-hour chart, we can conduct a precise micro-surgical analysis.
Firstly, the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) indicator is showing an extremely narrow state. The upper band (UB) is at $139.07, the lower band (LB) is at $128.62, with a bandwidth of only about $10. The price is currently running just above the middle band ($133.84), and this repeated entanglement near the middle band is a typical accumulation pattern, rather than a trend exhaustion.
I personally view $139 as a short-term 'life and death line.' There are three reasons: First, this position is the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which is an intuitive dynamic pressure point; second, from the candlestick patterns, recent rebounds have been decisively suppressed in the $138-$139 area, forming a local supply zone.
On the support side, $128.6 (Bollinger lower band) is the bottom line that must be guarded against. Once it falls below, it will destroy the current oscillating structure and trigger a rapid decline. The recent low shown in the chart at $129.68 is a closer layer of weak support.
02 MACD Hides Secrets: Although momentum is weakening, the bulls have not yet surrendered.
Looking at the MACD indicator again. DIF (0.91) is still above DEA (0.39), and the histogram (MACD) is a positive value of 1.04, indicating that short-term momentum is still leaning towards the bulls.
But one key detail is: the difference between DIF and DEA is narrowing. This indicates that upward momentum is diminishing, and the long-short forces are in delicate balance. My experience suggests that this state will not last long, and a new direction is usually chosen within 3-5 candlesticks (i.e., in 3-5 hours).
Combining the candlestick patterns, a clear symmetrical triangle convergence is forming. High points are gradually declining (pressured from $137.93), and low points are slowly rising, with prices being squeezed into an increasingly smaller space. A breakout is imminent.
03 My Unique Prediction: Best Script and Worst Plan
Based on this 1-hour chart, I give my personal prediction:
Best Scenario (Probability 45%): The price breaks above $139 (Bollinger upper band) with volume in the next few hours and quickly stabilizes. This will confirm a triangle breakout upwards, with a short-term target visible in the $142-$143 area, or even challenge previous highs.
Neutral Scenario (Probability 35%): Continue to oscillate within the range of $128.6-$139, which is about a $10 box, consuming retail investors' patience to build energy for a larger level of change. This situation may last until tomorrow.
Worst Scenario (Probability 20%): Falling below $129.68 (recent low) and further breaking through the $128.6 Bollinger lower band support. If this happens, it will quickly probe the $125-$126 area for support.
My personal inclination is towards an upward breakout. The reason is that, although the price is weak, it remains above the Bollinger middle band, and the MACD has not formed a death cross, indicating that the bulls are still actively defending and have not given up.
The time left for oscillation is limited. The end of the triangle convergence at the 1-hour level is a moment when short-term traders must keep their eyes wide open. $139 is the fortress for tonight's battle between bulls and bears.
Remember, in such extremely narrow oscillations, the first candlestick that breaks through often accompanies a 'false move.' Be sure to wait for the closing price to confirm the breakout is valid before following up. The market specializes in treating all sorts of disobedience and impatience.
Will you choose to chase longs when breaking above $139 or bet on a rebound when approaching the $128.6 support? What is your trading plan?
Follow me for timely reminders of key points! Like this article, and let’s verify the market's next choice together!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $SOL
