From #BTC URPD, it appears that from October 29 to now, there has been a net increase of 280,000 chips in the range of 107,200 to 110,000. However, it seems that the operations within the range are normal.

During the day and a half from October 31 to November 1, there were no more people handing over chips, and trading is still occurring within these three columns, with a total of 1,480,000. So the signal for BTC here is still not very clear, and we need to continue observing the next few days, especially this weekend...

Currently, the macro game is mainly about whether the interest rate will be lowered in December. In the past two days, Fed officials have also expressed their views on these issues, and there are still internal disagreements...

Yesterday on Binance, it was indeed observed that there were large long and short contracts entering BTC. Currently, the open interest has increased by about 5,000 BTC.

The net long has increased by about 4,500, which represents a nominal position of around 500 million. At the same time, the net short has also increased by about 2,250, which is half of the long, representing a nominal position of around 250 million.

After a drop to 108,550 yesterday, there has been a rebound, and there hasn't been a significant exit from either side during the consolidation process.

So simply looking at BTC cannot provide the same level of certainty as Ethereum... Overall, it may be slightly bullish (based on their respective positions).

If the volatility is downward, then it is what has been prepared for a while, a potential revisit to the needle tip (around 100,000) after replicating the 519 incident. If it goes upward, it may replicate the situation after the option expiration on September 26... The target is at least 120,000...

Personally, I feel that the future is 64% long and 36% short... Currently, the strategy can only continue to observe, maintaining a half-position long-term long position, reserving funds to add positions near the needle tip around October 11... If there is a direct upward movement from 110,000, consider adding positions after breaking through the 11,150 to 11,200 level and the subsequent pullback after that big cycle HH... $BTC