水博乱乱

From #BTC URPD, it appears that from October 29 to now, there has been a net increase of 280,000 chips in the range of 107,200 to 110,000. However, it seems that the operations within the range are normal.

During the day and a half from October 31 to November 1, there were no more people handing over chips, and trading is still occurring within these three columns, with a total of 1,480,000. So the signal for BTC here is still not very clear, and we need to continue observing the next few days, especially this weekend...

Currently, the macro game is mainly about whether the interest rate will be lowered in December. In the past two days, Fed officials have also expressed their views on these issues, and there are still internal disagreements...

Yesterday on Binance, it was indeed observed that there were large long and short contracts entering BTC. Currently, the open interest has increased by about 5,000 BTC.

The net long has increased by about 4,500, which represents a nominal position of around 500 million. At the same time, the net short has also increased by about 2,250, which is half of the long, representing a nominal position of around 250 million.

After a drop to 108,550 yesterday, there has been a rebound, and there hasn't been a significant exit from either side during the consolidation process.

So simply looking at BTC cannot provide the same level of certainty as Ethereum... Overall, it may be slightly bullish (based on their respective positions).

If the volatility is downward, then it is what has been prepared for a while, a potential revisit to the needle tip (around 100,000) after replicating the 519 incident. If it goes upward, it may replicate the situation after the option expiration on September 26... The target is at least 120,000...

Personally, I feel that the future is 64% long and 36% short... Currently, the strategy can only continue to observe, maintaining a half-position long-term long position, reserving funds to add positions near the needle tip around October 11... If there is a direct upward movement from 110,000, consider adding positions after breaking through the 11,150 to 11,200 level and the subsequent pullback after that big cycle HH... $BTC

Has the 3 billion ETH whale quietly entered Binance these two days?
#ETH $ETH
A big opportunity was missed a couple of days ago...

The day before yesterday, when BTC spiked to 106x and ETH hit 3677, Binance's ETH contract surprisingly saw a large wave of big players entering between 3730~3700.

Once again, there were large orders of 2000-4000 ETH placed every 1U.. Overall, it feels like there should be more than 50,000 ETH in total.. Close to 200 million in nominal positions.
After this wave is consumed, a rebound began..

I discovered this today while pulling up Coinglass. Combined with the extremely thick buy support displayed on TRDR at that time (see image two)

Is the whale building a large position in ETH contracts? Additionally, when the price returned to 3800 yesterday, there was a completely cost-ignorant market buy order of 30,000 ETH (1 billion position). In such a thick order book on Binance, it directly pulled up 60 points at market price... What exactly did they see that required such aggressive positioning in ETH?

Speaking of contradictions, this is precisely why the big opportunity was missed the other day..
Although the thick orders between 3730~3700 were visible on the Coinglass order book, looking at the minute-level chart, it seems like it also received.. (Whether there were last-second cancellations is unknown due to lack of historical data)

However, from the Exochart at that time (see image three), there was no very obvious absorption..
If these 50-60,000 ETH actually filled, there should have been significant absorption visible on Exochart, as well as changes in OI..

Even if the liquidity for long stop-losses was pushed down, borrowing to sell the orders they had at lower prices.. There should have been at least 30-40,000 net long reductions visible... But in reality, what was seen on Exochart during the 3730~3677 period was a net long reduction of less than 20,000...

This is a normal amount during such a spike.. So at that time, there was no observation of a very large absorption event or abnormal situation here.. Missing the 50-60,000 order wall displayed on Coinglass for Binance...

It may also be an issue with Exochart's statistical bias...
Anyway, the current conclusion is that around 3700, with 80% confidence, there should be a wave of whales entering around 200 million ETH long positions on Binance.. At the same time, around 3800, it is 100% certain that the whale opened a 100 million long position..... Combined with the release of BTC options liquidity after this weekend...

Will you ride along with the whale?

Today #BTC I will still pay attention to these two ranges for long and short positions. The main focus above for short positions is on three key points.. Between 111500~112000, let's see if there is an SFP false breakout..

For long positions, observe the range of 107500~108000. Yesterday, there were still a large number of short positions trapped here, and there are also some key points at 107000, but it may not necessarily provide an opportunity..

I will not operate in the middle part.. $BTC

The guidance on the funding side is very obvious from the order book depth... #BTC
Yesterday and the day before, inexplicable distant price pressure suppressed the price. After falling below 107000, there was very clear support below.. So here I continued for a few hours, inserting a few times but couldn't push too much down, and with the U.S. stock market closing, several major companies' earnings reports were released, causing a surge, leading to a rebound...

It's a bit of a pity that when it was down yesterday, I only added a grid for medium to long-term long positions, and the intraday position was too sluggish around 107000, and my mindset was not good; I couldn't hold on after entering the market a few times...
$BTC

I got up today and watched for two hours #BTC , it's really a bit more and more complicated to watch....
First, looking at the long and short situation, during the process of going down like this yesterday.. a large wave of long positions was trapped above 110,000.. one was after Powell's speech when they entered the market, and the other was during the meeting between China and the US when there was a spike and then a rebound, which also trapped a wave....
In addition, the two concentrated entry points for the longs are around 108x, 107x, and 106x.. this wave should rebound to around 110,000 where profits have already been realized...

So currently, the main pressure comes from the trapped longs above 110,000 + the short-term longs buying at the bottom starting to take profits, and there are no subsequent longs following up, and the spot buying in the Asian session is not very strong...

At the same time, during the rebound of 4,000 points, the aggressive shorts who entered yesterday have been almost blown out...
So in the past few hours, OI has plummeted.. the entire Binance OI has almost returned to the level after the spike at 10.11...

Moreover, today is the big options expiration, and various hedging liquidity is being released, which also corresponds to part of the OI decline appearance..

But now this point is still very puzzling.. although the small cycle has moved up by 4,000 points, from the perspective of the larger cycle, it has not yet broken out a higher high.. currently, it is still in the process of forming a lower high.

The hourly cycle needs to break HH at 111,600 (which is also the key range to break this wave of trapped long positions)
If it can't break, it is likely to go back down for a second test, at least to form a HL.... If it can't get out, then it will need to continue to go down and create new LL..
$BTC

Looking at the order..
First, let's look at the Binance chart. Yesterday's FOMC rebound saw a wave of bulls being trapped, so after the second injection today, it rebounded to 1116, forming a resistance level.. After that, there weren't any large orders. Bulls below are not trapped, and bears above are also in a profitable state, so currently, Binance is not very reference-worthy.

On Bybit, there is currently a major long position of 1000 between 1093 and 1099.. Below, there is a short position of around 400 trapped between 1084 and 1086..
If it comes back to the 1084~1086 area, there may be a bit of support, but not necessarily strong (after all, 400 is not too many)..
#BTC $BTC

In terms of orders, #BTC and #ETH currently have a significant discrepancy.. BTC still shows a huge pressure above (not sure if it's related to the maximum pain point) Recent pressure has already appeared around 112000, so rebounding to 111600 today couldn't go any higher. The support below appears at 108000 (there's a spot order that has already been knocked out) A large order further down is around 105000..

However, Ethereum now has very strong buy support below between 3700~3800
So you'll notice, during the day today, that spike, BTC broke the previous low from Powell's speech yesterday, while Ethereum did not break, just made an equal low spike
$BTC $ETH

From a macro perspective.. The conclusion has been reached in today's meeting.. This wave of new measures has been canceled, and various previous pauses have been lifted..
But why did gold rise and crypto fall after the conclusion was reached.. I don't understand how the market thinks..

The interest rate cut in December can be understood as prices following the expectation of the December rate cut.. After Powell's speech yesterday, expectations dropped to the range of 50%~60%.. Now it has risen to 70%.. However, compared to the previous expectation of 90+, it is a decline, so prices are also following the narrative downward.

At this point, my personal view remains unchanged.. The U.S. job market cannot turn around that quickly.. Once the standstill ends, when the first wave of data comes out, if the employment data is poor, the probability of a December rate cut will continue to soar back, and hopefully, prices will rebound..

At least Trump is on the side of rate cuts.. So even if the narrative of decreasing rate cut probabilities leads to lower prices.. It still maintains the expectation that rate cut probabilities will rebound later, and prices will follow suit.

So in terms of operations, prices will still slowly move down, gradually preparing for a medium to long-term long position, slowly adding to the rhythm of 10.11 needle tip..
Previously, not fully committing at 1050 has always left the possibility of returning to the 10.11 needle tip expectation..

#BTC $BTC

From POC's perspective.. POC 1160 cannot be pushed up, so let's go with the trend and move downwards..

Currently, we are still between two POC ranges 1080~1112.. There is still some fluctuation that can occur, and there are some trapped short positions above 1080.. There could still be a scalp opportunity..

I will mention this when looking at exo later..
#BTC $BTC

I have been trying to understand today #BTC and this approach for half a day... Here are a few thoughts..
Learn from history.. Since October 11, I have been referencing the market situation after May 19.. After May 19, it touched the upper edge of the range again and then went straight to the previous initial needle tip without looking back...

However, this is just a reference and cannot be used as a basis for trading.. Without experiencing the market sentiment at that time, I don't know why it went back to that needle tip.. Therefore, I can't judge whether it will happen this time.. Moreover, this time it is driven by the Federal Reserve. So what was the driving force behind May 19? I don't know.. So it cannot be used as guidance.. But the trend over the past 20 days has been a replication....

The accompanying picture is from May 19, it took 7 days to go from the upper edge of the range back to the needle tip.. Finally, the needle insertion ended
$BTC

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech hinted at some dovishness while also bringing a hawkish tone....

Today, the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut came as no surprise and aligned with market expectations.. Previously, analysts were expecting further announcements regarding the halt of balance sheet reduction, with the most optimistic estimates suggesting it would start in November, while some speculated it might begin in December...

Tonight, the final decision was announced, which included not only the rate cut but also the start of balance sheet reduction from December 1.. Theoretically, this should be a positive sign, yet the market showed little reaction... It seemed to offer a hint of dovishness, but the market ignored it.. It's hard to understand why...

However, during Powell's subsequent remarks, there was a sudden shift to a hawkish tone, indicating that the December rate cut is not a confirmed event.. Currently, there is significant internal disagreement, and the risks facing the U.S. are rising inflation and declining employment.. However, they only have one tool for rate hikes and cuts.. Therefore, they cannot safeguard both.. As a result, there is still no conclusion on whether there will be a rate cut in December.
After this conclusion was stated, both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies plummeted sharply.... Simultaneously, the probability of a December rate cut on CME's FedWatch dropped to 67.8%

However, Powell's comments were not definitive.. It still depends on the job market.. Currently, the government is shut down in October, and not only do they lack September data, but it is estimated that October's data will also be difficult to compile... This might be the source of their current internal disagreements..

So, when the shutdown ends and the first employment data is released, if it continues to worsen, the probability of a rate cut in December will increase.
Recently, Amazon announced the layoff of 30,000 employees, mainly due to the proliferation of AI and robots.. Many positions no longer require human labor.. If this trend continues, the upcoming employment data may not look good...
Therefore, I remain relatively optimistic about the possibility of a continued rate cut in December...

Currently #BTC is consolidating here... The resistance and support levels above and below are as shown in the chart...

Bybit had over 1000 buy orders starting at 113700 during the surge yesterday... There should still be a few residuals trapped... This became the first wave of resistance (it’s possible that 113600 has already been tested during the day)

Above is the heavily resisted spot hanging units... Just like what is shown in chart 2trdr... Although the sell orders are heavy, they are all sell orders within a 2.5% range, most of them are in the 5% range above the price. Specifically, both Coinbase and Binance have placed several hundred spots between 115600 and 116700...

The support below is the not too large nor small Binance contract buy orders at 111800 below 112000 from yesterday (possibly aiming for long liquidation liquidity below 112000)
Further down is 111000, the position of the CME gap...

If it continues to consolidate around 113000, then we’ll wait for the speech from Powell of the Federal Reserve... If there is good news regarding the halt of tapering, then it may break upwards to the upper area around 115xxx to test that wave of Coinbase's 290 spot sell orders at 115600...

If Powell's tone is very strict, with no market expectations of a halt to tapering (even if it's a future timeline), then continuing to explore down to 111000 to fill the CME gap is also one of the scenarios...

With today’s market news, the technical aspect can only be seen here...

I continued to look at #BTC , and the demand zone mentioned earlier is still providing support.. At the same time, it overlaps with the short positions that were trapped yesterday. Currently, the long and short situation on Binance and Bybit is as shown in the image... Image one is Binance, image two is Bybit. The long position on Binance has seen a large influx.. It hasn't broken through yet, and when it just retraced, there was support from the trapped short positions below, so this wave of long positions hasn't exited... Currently in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts..

$BTC Support level for trapped short positions Resistance level for trapped long positions

About $ETH ... low multi-strategy see the picture..
Wait for a wave 4050~4100 here to see if there are any opportunities..

Today #BTC intraday thoughts.. The short position has already been held after the false breakout at 1160.
The low-long position below has trapped a wave of short positions near 1150, but just now when the first wave retraced to 1147, it has already tested it, so the next test may not be stable...

At the same time, during the push to 1140 yesterday, there was also a wave of short positions trapped below.. So currently, there is also a wave of support in the 1140~1135 range.
Additionally, with POC overlapping, this low-long position should see a wave... (if there are no negative news to break through directly)
So today, the intraday low-long will consider this area....

As for what happens next today, #BTC whether it will continue to break the range, I have actually been referring to the trend after 519 lately..
See the chart below. Below is 519, the text is my layered understanding of the current situation...

After 519, the market took 2 months to gradually break out of the following fluctuations... Yesterday I also saw a viewpoint that the rebate of Binance's leading assets has dropped sharply during this time, indicating that there is much less retail money in the market now.. It's uncertain whether it can definitely go up...

At the same time, based on the trend after 519, it can be found that after the market's first wave of recovery, the upper edge of a fluctuating range was given (corresponding to now is 116000 here). In the following days, there were several downward tests but did not reach the initial peak (for example, last Friday's 103500). There was also a process of returning to the upper edge (corresponding to today's return to 116000).
However, there were also two more times that tested the initial peak position again (corresponding to this time being just over 100000).

Although I don’t know whether it will definitely follow the 519 trend to test the peak again.. But this is a scenario I've always been wary of. So when I was buying low at 105000, I didn’t fully fill the position.. Just to prepare for a potential peak scenario below...

So to conclude... There’s no way to say for sure that today's 116000 here can definitely break through, or whether it will return to the lower range. As mentioned the day before, this week is very likely to be driven by news.. It’s all heavyweight news + liquidity released after options expiration.. So it’s hard to say...

However, taking history as a mirror, in terms of position and risk management, it's important to prepare for various situations...

In actual operation, the short position from the false breakout at 1160 should continue to hold. Currently, TP1, if it continues to break through 1160, then take the profit and leave.. If it goes back down to the range, then continue to trade intraday and trend.. As a hedge for the long position.
At the same time, the long position entered at 105000 according to yesterday's plan at 1120, 1140, 1160 with a small amount of TP and the remaining 40% position.. If it breaks up, continue to hold.. If it goes down, slowly add back the TP position below, and prepare well for the peak scenario..
Only when the peak is broken and cannot be recovered will I run away (extreme situation)

Currently #BTC looking at the order book depth.. Neither the contracts nor the spot market show significant selling pressure...
It seems that in the face of positive news.. funds are not overly eager to sell at higher levels.. This is a phenomenon favorable to bulls..


At least when previously pushing to 1116 and 1140, there was significant selling pressure shown above... But currently, from the order book orders, such pressure has not yet appeared
(However, during the first wave at 1160, such pressure also did not appear, so further observation is needed)


Therefore, currently, there is no way to derive more reference value from the order book...

#BTC inserted 1160, currently there hasn't been much action in the range between 1150 and 1160 for both bulls and bears.. It seems like everyone is waiting for the direction of the US stock market..
Currently, the A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stock index futures are up before the market opens, so it is estimated that the US stock market will continue to rise today..

However, whether the US stock market's continued rise can drive Bitcoin's price up is hard to say, as 1160 has already become the upper boundary of the range.. Breaking through this range is a significant psychological barrier.. Moreover, the favorable news between China and the US has already been digested in the crypto market yesterday and today, so if the US stock market only digests this good news today, the crypto market may not necessarily follow suit..

Currently, the short position at the false breakout of 1160 has a high cost-performance ratio.. If it breaks upwards, there are almost no better high-certainty short positions available.. Only between 1170 and 1177 might there be some trapped positions from the previous spike.. However, it is uncertain how many have not been liquidated yet.. More certain points will be around 12W, for example, here at 1196...

116000 False breakout is very standard... The pin was directly pulled back.. Yesterday I waited all day for the false breakouts at 1120, 1140, and 1160. I didn't take the two true breakouts at 1120 and 1140, but finally pulled back here at 1160, creating a pattern where I can enter a short position.. After a 1000 point tp1, the next step is simply if it goes up, I will exit to break even, and if it goes down, I will continue to hold this short either intraday or as a trend.