The U.S. Government Shutdown Ends + Rate Cut Expectations Resurge, Is Under $100,000 Actually the “Bear Trap” Set by Whales?
1. The Truth Behind the Sudden Drop: Retail Investors Cut Losses, Whales Secretly Take Over
Last night, Bitcoin plummeted to $98,900, and the market was in chaos, but on-chain data exposed key signals:
· The URPD chip distribution map shows: 2.484 million BTC (12% of circulation) accumulated densely in the $104,500-$111,000 range, while only 1.054 million BTC was in the $93,500-$98,500 range. This indicates that the main force's holding cost is much higher than the current price, and the plunge is actually a washout!
· Long-term holders are steady as a rock: over 75% of Bitcoin holdings have been held for more than one year, with selling pressure mainly coming from leveraged short-term funds.
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2. Two Major Catalysts Are About to Explode
1. U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Resolved: The two houses have reached an agreement on a temporary spending bill, and the return of risk appetite will trigger a flow of hundreds of billions of dollars back into high-risk assets.
2. Rate Cut Expectations for December Resurge: CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 68%, and the liquidity spigot is reopening!
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3. Bloody Harvest Script Exposed: How Do Whales Strangle Shorts?
· Technical Indicators Show Textbook-Level Divergence: RSI(6) has fallen to 23.38 (extremely oversold), KDJ's J value is only 6.59, and the rebound momentum is comparable to the epic reversal on the eve of January 2023.
· Short Squeeze Roadmap:
① Rapidly rise to $105,000, triggering short stop-losses (current perpetual contract funding rate is extremely negative)
② Break through the $111,000 dense chip area with positive news, triggering FOMO buying
③ Build a long trap in the $120,000 area to complete distribution
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4. Emergency Operation Strategy
· Short-term: Firmly layout long positions in the $98,500-$100,000 range, with a stop-loss at $97,000
· Medium-term: Increase positions after breaking $105,000, target $118,000-$120,000
· Risk Warning: If it effectively breaks below $95,000, be cautious of a deeper correction to $88,000
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History does not simply repeat itself but always follows a rhythmic pattern—current trends are highly similar to the mid-market washout after the “3·12” crash in 2020. When most people are fearful, whales are opening their greedy mouths in the darkness.
