Bitcoin failed to hold above $110K as macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced expectations for another Fed rate cut weakened investor sentiment.
XWIN Research Japan identified the $107K–$118K zone as a strong resistance range driven by rising long-term holder selling and exchange inflows.
ETF outflows, DeFi security issues, and cautious institutional activity continued to weigh on Bitcoin’s momentum despite positive policy developments.
Bitcoin struggles to cross the $110,000 threshold despite optimism, faced by bullish U.S. policy and market easing hopes with slight enthusiasm. Bitcoin traded up to the $110,000 mark on November 10 but fell back into selling pressure by the market near a pivotal resistance mark.
Macro Caution Restrains Momentum
Bitcoin’s attempt to extend gains met macroeconomic resistance. The Federal Reserve’s October rate cut initially boosted sentiment, but Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks that another reduction in December was not assured weakened investor confidence. This tempered the earlier optimism that had lifted risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Traders had anticipated a sustained rally after U.S. policymakers discussed Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend and progress toward resolving the government shutdown. However, the fading likelihood of further monetary easing triggered portfolio rebalancing away from speculative assets. The cautious tone from central bankers slowed momentum that had begun building around Bitcoin’s breakout attempt.
According to XWIN Research Japan, this macro restraint contributed to a broader hesitation across markets. Investors continued to monitor inflation data and policy signals, limiting aggressive entries into Bitcoin near the $110,000 mark.
Regulatory and Structural Pressures Weigh on Buyers
While the Trump administration’s stance on digital assets appeared supportive—with the GENIUS Act and several pro-crypto appointments—regulatory uncertainty persisted. State-level actions and ongoing concerns over volatility kept institutional participants cautious.
This cautious institutional tone was reinforced by XWIN Research’s data showing an uptick in long-term holder (LTH) activity. The firm identified $107,000–$118,000 as a heavy resistance range, marked by increased exchange inflows from older wallets. Those inflows, nearly twice the normal level, added to supply-side friction.
XWIN Research also observed changes in the LTH-SOPR metric, which measures realized profits by long-term investors. The reading near 1.6 suggested profit-taking with limited margins, signaling waning conviction among holders who were selling into short-lived strength.
Weak Sentiment and Outflows Stall Uptrend
Market sentiment remained subdued despite bullish catalysts. October’s record liquidations, combined with MEXC withdrawal issues and a series of DeFi exploits, dampened trader confidence across the ecosystem.
ETF activity also reversed direction. After several months of consistent inflows, late October recorded $1.5 billion in outflows, removing a key demand driver for Bitcoin. Without sustained institutional buying, market depth thinned near resistance, preventing a clean breakout.
XWIN Research Japan emphasized that clearer regulation, stronger inflows, and reduced LTH selling pressure are needed for Bitcoin to test $110,000 again. Until these structural factors improve, Bitcoin should remain range bound between $107,000 and $118,000 through positive news cycles.
