Yesterday, ETH reached a high of 3660 USD, then dipped to around 3500 USD, with a fluctuation range of about 200 points. After completing a short-term bottom in this range, the price rebounded to 3650 USD today, but encountered significant resistance at this position. The current market shows that both the lower support and upper pressure are gradually adjusting.

From a structural perspective, the short-term lower support focuses on the 3550–3530 range; if this range can stabilize and form an effective stop-loss, the price is expected to continue rising. There are two phase resistance levels above:

• The first resistance range is around 3750 USD;

• The second resistance range is between 3850–3880 USD.

The key level is between 3850–3900 USD: if this range can be effectively broken, it will open up further upward space, continuing the strong market; conversely, if significant resistance is encountered near 3900, it may trigger strong suppression, leading the market into a phase of oscillatory repair or deep correction. This correction may be relatively repetitive and protracted; if the decline intensifies, the target range may extend down to 2600–1700 USD.

In terms of news, this week the U.S. government ended a shutdown that lasted over 40 days and returned to normal operations. This change means that the liquidity issues at the banking end are expected to ease, enhancing overall market liquidity. As a result, both U.S. stocks and gold saw significant rebounds yesterday. Moreover, with various key economic data about to be released, market volatility may further increase.

However, it is important to note that recently, there has been a continuous net outflow of ETH and BTC ETF products, indicating that institutional funding attitudes remain cautious, which means that the downward risks in the market have not been fully resolved.

Considering the technical aspects, on-chain data, and macro news, ETH is currently at a critical turning point. If it can maintain 3550 USD in the short term and break through the resistance above 3900 USD, it will re-establish a medium-term upward trend; otherwise, the market may still experience a period of structural adjustment.