Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated on Tuesday (November 18) that as market conditions increasingly point towards Bitcoin potentially retreating to the $50,000 range, Bitcoin may be entering a critical phase.
It is noteworthy that this outlook emerges as Bitcoin continues to face pressure, with prices falling below the $90,000 mark for the first time since April. The asset is currently trading at $91,431, down over 4% in the past 24 hours and down 13% over the past week.
McGlone's latest assessment indicates that the market may be approaching the early stages of a deflationary environment. As year-end position adjustments, reduced stock market volatility, and significant increases in gold prices occur, speculative assets are facing greater pressure.
He stated: "Market correction? The 'gravity pull' of Bitcoin at $50,000 may guide the direction—if Bitcoin serves as a reference, the broader market may be approaching a deflationary starting point after inflation."
He pointed out that as of mid-November, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has fallen by 10%, highlighting this shift and reinforcing expectations that Bitcoin's risk is tilted downward.
McGlone's view is further supported by long-term data: the data shows that Bitcoin's annual candlestick for 2025 is heading towards its first annual close in the red since the decline in 2022, contrasting with the strong rebounds of 2023 and 2024.
Historically, an annual close in the red during Bitcoin cycles often signals a longer cooling period ahead rather than an immediate reversal to the upside.
It is worth noting that the S&P 500 index continues to rise steadily, but the widening gap between Bitcoin's peak at the end of 2024 and current levels indicates that even as the stock market rises, the momentum in the crypto market is weakening.
McGlone sees $50,000 as a critical threshold, which aligns with the upper range of previous annual candlesticks. He warns that in the context of tightening liquidity and weakening speculative demand, this price point is creating a 'gravity pull' on Bitcoin.
Key price levels for Bitcoin to watch
Meanwhile, after Bitcoin filled the much-watched CME futures gap, it continued its sharp drop, breaking below the $90,000 mark and triggering new market volatility.
According to analyst Ted Pillows, this downward trend directly pushes Bitcoin into a critical support area between $88,000 and $90,000, which he sees as a potential 'liquidity sweep' area.
He added that after a significant price misalignment, Bitcoin often revisits untested areas. If buying interest comes in, this drop could help form a local bottom.
At the same time, Pillows warns that given the recent speed and intensity of selling, there may still be a deeper 'capitulation-style' long wick before prices stabilize.
