The real reason for Bitcoin's weakness is that ordinary people have no money in their pockets.

Many people shout every day, "This time is different," "The bear market is here," and "Retail investors are all gone," but the main reason is not that the bull market is not working; it's that ordinary Americans (Main Street) are really too poor to play now. There are no new "retail investors" coming in. In this round from 2024 to 2025, although Bitcoin has increased significantly, these Main Street people have basically not entered the market, mainly relying on Wall Street.

In the past two major bull markets (2017, 2021), it was not the Wall Street guys in suits who really pushed BTC from $20,000 to $69,000 and Dogecoin to $0.007, but the countless ordinary people like you and me, who are burdened with mortgages, queueing in supermarkets to buy discounted beef, grabbing goods at Costco, and struggling to support three kids on a tight budget. When mortgage rates are 2.5% and gasoline is $2 a gallon, people will celebrate as retail investors.

But in 2024-2025, with mortgage rates at 8% and monthly payments skyrocketing, supermarkets, gasoline, and insurance are all crazily increasing in price, and AI is constantly shouting about taking away jobs... Don’t even mention increasing BTC positions; people are struggling to pay credit card bills, who has the mood for FOMO? It can only rely on institutions slowly grinding it out.

Looking at macro data, you'll find an interesting phenomenon: every major peak of Bitcoin in the past 10 years has almost coincided with peaks in the ISM Manufacturing Index (which measures how well the economy is doing). Now the ISM is still hovering below 50, indicating that the real economy is still contracting, and ordinary people's pockets are cleaner than their faces; where does the frenzy come from? So now it looks quiet, with low trading volume and retail investors not shouting slogans; it's not that BTC is dead, it's that ordinary people are still fighting for their livelihoods and have no time to go to the battlefield. But money will eventually flow back into their pockets. It may be due to the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, or maybe Trump will issue helicopter money again (tax cuts, infrastructure, stimulus vouchers). As long as there's a clever move, once ordinary people catch their breath, FOMO will come back. At that time, don't say $100,000; even $200,000 won't be stopped.

Remember this phrase: "Bears sound smart, bulls make money." The loudest voices in the air force are basically the same people who cut their losses at $60,000 last round and are bearish again at $70,000 this round. Don’t be like them. Wait until the beer in Main Street's hands becomes cheap again, and the next round of craziness will truly begin. Keep enough cash, then play music, and keep going. $BTC #BTC