Is the bear market coming?

Bitcoin is falling, and the US stock market is struggling. This situation usually indicates that there are more issues ahead. There are several key points you must know.

• Saudi actions are the most significant

Officially announcing the mining of BTC and collaborating with NVIDIA and Elon Musk on a 500 MW AI supercomputer, also planning to invest $1 trillion in the US. The direction is very clear: it's moving towards technology and computing power.

• Market structure is divided

Under normal circumstances, if BTC falls below the key cost price, market sentiment generally leans towards bear market expectations. However, the structures of the S&P 500 and Dow futures still appear relatively healthy, and there is even short-term upward potential. Therefore, you will see a very contradictory market, with one strong and one weak, moving very inconsistently.

• A very critical variable is the impact after NVIDIA's earnings report. Third-quarter revenue is approximately $57 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62%.

But the market reaction is more focused on future guidance. If the company provides stronger expectations for AI demand and subsequent growth, risk appetite will improve rapidly; conversely, sentiment will remain cautious, and short-term risk assets will also be suppressed.

• Another variable is the increasing uncertainty of the Federal Reserve. The market currently has lowered the probability of a rate cut in December to below 43%. There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve, which has intensified short-term market volatility.

• The US Senate will vote on the crypto market structure bill in December. If the bill passes, the regulatory positioning of Bitcoin will become clearer, which is a positive factor for crypto in the medium to long term.

• Despite continuous net outflows from ETFs, BlackRock has submitted an "Ethereum Staking Trust" and transferred all $800 million of BTC and ETH into Coinbase Prime. If this trust/product is successfully launched, the way institutions enter Ethereum may change completely.

After reading all this, do you still think the bear market is coming?