🔥【Non-Farm Payrolls Ignite the Market】In September, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surged by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest since 2021.
Why is this data so critical? — It throws the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December back into chaos.
🦅 Hawkish Perspective: With employment rebounding and economic resilience still strong, cutting rates now could drive inflation higher again.
🕊️ Dovish Perspective: The rising unemployment rate and increasing economic pressures make rate cuts a necessary support measure.
Policy divergence is widening, and what's more complex is —
This is the first "official health indicator" after the U.S. government shutdown, amplifying the data's weight. Additionally, the October employment report will be released in conjunction with November's, leading to a "data vacuum period" in the coming weeks.
📉 Market Real-Time Response: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index are experiencing severe fluctuations, with rate cut expectations being fully contested. Risk assets may face greater volatility, especially at points of unstable liquidity and unclear direction.
This is not simply a negative or positive signal, but another strong stimulus in the "uncertain direction era." In the coming days, the market will engage in a new round of tug-of-war over whether to cut rates in December.
⚠️ For traders: This is both an opportunity and a trap. Managing positions is more important than predicting direction.
