#比特币波动性 #加密市场回调

Don't panic during a big drop!

Last night, the US stock market plummeted at the close, and this morning, stock markets across Asia-Pacific all fell sharply. The cryptocurrency market has also issued strong bearish signals. The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened with significant declines. It seems that global liquidity is experiencing issues.

At the root, the expectations management of the Federal Reserve and the turmoil in the Japanese government bond market are the main sources of this round of global market declines. Just now, both of these major variables have shown positive signals that are favorable for market development.

Overall decline

On the morning of November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index opened down 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index opened down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index opened down 2.07%. The computing hardware supply chain fell across the board, with memory and CPO sectors leading the decline; lithium mines, lithium battery electrolytes, semiconductors, consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and AI application concept stocks saw significant drops. Subsequently, the declines in both markets expanded, with the Shanghai Composite Index once dropping nearly 90 points. By the close of the midday session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.18%. The lithium battery supply chain fell across the board, with nearly 5,000 stocks in the market declining.

The Hang Seng Index opened down 1.45%, and the decline subsequently expanded; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 2.5%. Internet stocks retraced across the board, with Baidu Group and Bilibili falling over 4%. The semiconductor concept performed poorly, with SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor dropping over 3%.

It is worth noting that today the market experienced indiscriminate selling. In the morning session, government bond futures with strong safe-haven functions also turned down across the board, with the 30-year main contract falling 0.23%, the 10-year main contract falling 0.04%, the 5-year main contract falling 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract falling 0.01%.

Two positive signals

If we look for the source of this round of declines from the outside, it is nothing more than the decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the continuous decline of Japanese government bonds. However, this morning, both of these major variables have shown some positive changes.

From the perspective of the United States, although Morgan Stanley retracted its prediction on Thursday that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, this morning, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve has sent many signals, some of which are confusing. The Federal Reserve should pay attention to the data; the Federal Reserve should continue to promote the interest rate cut cycle. The three major US stock index futures also rebounded across the board.