The current market is in a 'confirmed bear market phase': Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $87,000 for the first time since April, currently at $86,792 (a decrease of 6.4%); Ethereum (ETH) has dropped to a four-month low, currently at $2,781.95 (a decrease of 5.30%). Over 220,000 people were liquidated across the network in the last 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $821 million. Market confidence has been severely impacted, with increased divergence between institutions and retail investors, facing downward pressure in the short term, but the long-term structural logic remains unchanged.
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Long: 85200 long - 87000 take profit - 84500 stop loss
Short: 88000 short - 86000 take profit - 88800 stop loss
Zihao: Ethereum (ETH) strategy:
Long positions: 2780 long - 2900 take profit - 2750 stop loss
Short positions: 2890 short - 2795 take profit - 2930 stop loss
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The main reason for the market decline
1. Macro liquidity tightening: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have cooled
The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly decreased: CME's 'FedWatch' shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped from 70% in October to 29.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate has risen to 70.2%.
Federal Reserve officials' hawkish stance: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard and other officials emphasized that 'inflation has stagnated,' opposing a rate cut in December, stating that 'cutting rates too early would exacerbate inflation risks.'
Marginal tightening of dollar liquidity: Morgan Stanley pointed out that if the Federal Reserve stands pat in December, dollar liquidity will tighten, directly suppressing the performance of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
2. Tech stock sell-off and risk asset correlation
U.S. tech stocks plummet: On November 21, the South Korean Composite Index fell over 3%, the Nikkei 225 Index dropped over 2%, SoftBank Group fell nearly 9%, and SK Hynix fell over 8%.
Risk asset sell-off resonance: Bitcoin and tech stocks are both high-risk assets, and market concerns over 'tech stock valuation bubbles' have triggered sell-offs, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold.
3. Whale sell-offs and market structural fragility
Whales significantly reducing holdings: Since September, large holders (investors holding a significant amount of BTC) have sold over $20 billion worth of crypto assets. For example, the 'first-generation whale' Owen Gunden liquidated $1.3 billion in BTC between October 21 and November 21, exacerbating market panic.
Deleveraging in the derivatives market: On November 15, the number of liquidations in a single day exceeded 180,000, with liquidation amounts reaching $430 million, of which long positions with leverage over 20 times accounted for more than 70%. The withdrawal of leveraged funds triggered a 'stampede effect,' accelerating the price decline.
4. Institutional funds withdrawal: ETF net outflows intensify
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, with a total withdrawal of $2.6 billion. Among them, the BlackRock IBIT ETF had a single-week outflow of $420 million, setting the record for the largest weekly outflow since the fund's inception.#BTC
