In the past few months, market sentiment has fluctuated violently like a roller coaster, from a pervasive atmosphere of pessimism to a brief spark of bullish hope, and now to deep concerns about systemic risk. This shift in sentiment has not been triggered by a single event, but is the result of multiple macro factors intertwining and acting together. The narrative of Bitcoin as a macro hedge tool has yet to deliver as expected, primarily because its current price movements remain tightly linked to liquidity cycle fluctuations and have not truly decoupled from traditional risk assets.
政策迷雾下的决策滞后：市场不确定性加剧
Policymakers are currently mired in a data fog, and the lag in decision-making further amplifies market uncertainty. Take the Federal Reserve as an example; despite the complicated backdrop of government shutdowns distorting key economic data, it persists with a hawkish stance. This decision not only significantly increases the risk of policy missteps but also tightens the financial environment substantially. In this scenario, traditional safe-haven assets like gold, with their low volatility and robust characteristics, become investors' 'safe havens'. In contrast, Bitcoin still exhibits high Beta characteristics, with increasing correlation to tech stocks. This means that during market volatility, Bitcoin's fluctuations are often more extreme than those of tech stocks, making it difficult to serve as a hedge against risk.
Tech giants' transformation: Reshaping the market risk landscape
The strategic transformation of tech giants is profoundly changing the risk structure of the market. The capital expenditure model in the AI field has undergone a significant shift, changing from a reliance on cash flow to being driven by leverage. This transformation has exposed tech giants, previously viewed as bond-like with stable return characteristics, to credit risk. Because these tech giants occupy a disproportionately high weight in market indices, their volatility directly impacts pension funds and retail investors' portfolios, potentially triggering systemic risk. Bitcoin has yet to shake off this correlation, and its market performance is still categorized within the 'liquidity complex', making it difficult to stand alone.
Private credit market: Early cracks hide crises
The private credit market has quietly shown early cracks, with discrepancies between model pricing and market pricing reminiscent of the patterns seen before the 2007 - 2008 financial crisis. Although the current market appears calm on the surface, the repo market has shown signs of declining reserve adequacy. In the early stages of credit pressure, Bitcoin often becomes a sell-off target rather than a safe-haven asset embraced by investors. This is because institutional investors, when faced with credit risk, tend to prioritize maintaining liquidity to ensure the safety of their funds rather than allocating funds to alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Political dimension escalation: K-shaped economic divergence triggers policy changes
The K-shaped economic divergence is no longer limited to the economic realm but has escalated into a far-reaching political variable. The fracturing of the social contract has prompted the rise of populist policies, and tech giants may thus face stricter regulatory and tax policies. In this political environment, the narrative of Bitcoin’s claimed 'decentralized censorship resistance' is appealing, but the actual flow of funds is not driven by genuine macro hedging demand. Instead, financialization strategies such as derivative trading and volatility arbitrage have become the main factors influencing Bitcoin’s capital flow.
Extreme conditions may become the opportunity for Bitcoin's hedging attributes to materialize
Considering the above factors, Bitcoin's hedging attributes may require more extreme conditions to be realized. For example, a complete collapse of trust in traditional assets, or a full-blown crisis of debt sustainability. At this stage, Bitcoin is more like a risk asset driven by liquidity, and its market turning point may only appear with a new round of policy stimulus and systemic repricing in 2026. Investors need to recognize clearly that the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge is not entirely ineffective; it just needs to undergo more severe macro stress tests to truly verify its effectiveness as a macro hedging tool.
