Bitcoin's Short-Term Life-and-Death Situation! Can 80,000 Hold? 75,000 Becomes the Next Meat Grinder💣

On November 21, a crash of 9% broke through 81,000 USD, and Bitcoin is now a 'startled bird'! The Fear & Greed Index soared to an extreme panic level of 13, with the technicals completely collapsing and capital fleeing wildly. In the next 1-3 weeks, 75,000 USD will be the ultimate lifeline determining life and death!

🔪 Bearish Kill Shot: 3 Ironclad Evidence of a Necessary Drop

- Technicals Completely Flat: The key MVRV 'Fair Value Line' has directly fallen below, with support levels of 89,600 and 85,700 collapsing within seconds. Now even the 80,000 mark is precarious. The next target is directly aimed at 75,700 USD (-0.5σ band strong support), representing an 18% drop space from the current price.

- Capital is in Mass Exodus: BlackRock's IBIT saw a record outflow of 523 million USD in a single day, with the cumulative bleeding of over 3 billion since November in the US spot ETF. The outflow of capital and the downward trend have formed a 'death spiral,' with no one daring to step in to catch the falling knife.

- The Federal Reserve Has Passed 'Death Sentence': The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 30%, with a 70% probability of maintaining high interest rates. In the context of dollar tightening, Bitcoin, as a 'non-yielding asset,' is the first to be sold off.

✨ The Only Lifeline: 2 Unmissable Reversal Signals

Extreme Panic = Bottom Warning: Historical data shows that when the Fear & Greed Index is below 20, it is often a short-term bottom signal. The last time the index was 13, Bitcoin rebounded by 12% within 5 days.

Whales Are Secretly Accumulating: On-chain data shows that in the past month, whales have been continuously hoarding coins, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has doubled its Bitcoin ETF holdings, indicating that long-term capital is not panicking.

🎯 3-Week Market Script: Just Watch These 3 Nodes

- 💀 Crash Script (Probability 50%) Trigger Conditions: 80,000 USD Cannot Hold + Fed Turns Hawkish + Strategy Excluded by MSCI Triggers 2.8 Billion Outflow Target: First hit 75,000 USD, extreme case tests the 74,000 USD low in April (30% space from current)

- 🤏 Consolidation Script (Probability 35%) Trigger Conditions: 75,000 USD Holds + ETF Capital Outflow Narrows + Panic Emotion Eases Range: 'Weave' between 75,000-85,000 USD, waiting for the December Fed meeting to set direction.

- 🚀 Rebound Script (Probability 15%) Trigger Conditions: Sudden Rate Cut Signal + ETF Capital Returns + Whales Large-Scale Accumulation Target: Rebound height is limited, first look at the psychological level of 90,000 USD, breakthrough needed to touch 95,000 $BTC #BTC走势分析