Chante Widmer YxUY

After two days of rollercoaster-like surges, the cryptocurrency market is completely trapped in a 'high-level game'. Mainstream coins are supported by positive news, but selling pressure is significant. Altcoins struggle to be independent, and the trend hinges entirely on key levels!

📈 BTC: 95,000 is the lifeline, oscillating to digest selling pressure.
After the BTC V-shaped reversal stabilized at 91,000, the daily MACD golden cross gained momentum, indicating that the short-term bottom is stabilizing. However, the pressure above is intense, with the MA30 moving average at 94,300 + the upper boundary of the 95,000 descending channel firmly holding back any upward movement without volume.

Keep a close watch on the psychological level of 90,000 below, with 88,000-89,000 as the support conversion zone; if broken, it could easily retrace to 85,000. The short-term strategy is to engage in range trading, with a small position for longs at 90,000-90,500, while a bounce at 93,000-93,500 is suitable for shorts—don’t chase the highs!

⚡ ETH: Upgrade + double bottom buff, 3,050 is the first hurdle.
ETH is more bullish than BTC, surging 11.6% in 24 hours back to 3,000, bolstered by the Fusaka upgrade and the double bottom formation. After the upgrade, Layer-2 transaction fees have dropped by 40%-60%, directly boosting the fundamentals.

In the short term, watch the pressure zone at 3,030-3,050; breaking through confirms the continuation of the rebound. Further up, there is dual resistance from the 20-day moving average and previous highs at 3,100-3,150. Support is at 2,930-2,960, with 2,850-2,880 being the short-term lifeline. As long as it's held, there’s playability; a pullback to the support zone offers better risk-reward for longs.

🚨 Altcoins: Don’t take the rebound seriously, warning of a pullback after a surge.
SOL, XRP, and other altcoins that previously plummeted are now warming up alongside mainstream coins, but they are merely 'catching a ride'. Capital still favors stable mainstream coins; risk-averse sentiment hasn’t fully receded, and there won’t be a significant influx into high-risk altcoins.

Moreover, most altcoins lack substantial positive news to support them; this rebound is simply a catch-up. If mainstream coins encounter resistance and pull back, altcoins are sure to dive first, especially those that were previously overhyped—absolutely don’t chase the highs!

🌍 Key Variable: Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.
Market sentiment has turned optimistic, with only 7.5% of users worried about a winter in the crypto market, but the ultimate test will be the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on December 10. A rate cut could fuel the market, but if they remain static, it will likely trigger a new round of adjustments. $BTC #比特币预测

December kicks off with a bang! BTC crashes to 87,000, 170,000 people liquidated 500 million💥

In the past two days, the cryptocurrency market has directly entered "hell mode"; regulatory hammering has caused a market collapse, with both longs and shorts being pressed to the ground. Here are the core highlights👇

🚨 Regulatory madness! 13 departments label stablecoins as "illegal"
The central bank, leading 13 departments including the Ministry of Public Security and the Cyberspace Administration, is conducting a "joint strangulation". For the first time, it has clearly stated: **stablecoins are virtual currencies**! It targets the hidden issues of money laundering and cross-border fund transfers, and reiterates that all virtual currency-related businesses are illegal financial activities. Moving forward, there will be strict dual-line inspections of information flow and capital flow, drastically compressing the speculative space in the cryptocurrency market. This news has directly doused the market with a bucket of cold water.

💸 December opens dark! BTC crashes below 87,000, 170,000 people liquidated 500 million
On the morning of December 1st, the market collectively "plunged"; BTC saw a sudden drop of over 5%, briefly falling below the 87,000 USD mark; ETH fared worse, dropping over 5% to 2,900 USD, closing at 2,837 USD. XRP and Dogecoin dropped over 6%, while SOL and Ada also fell nearly 6%.
Coinglass data left people stunned: 24-hour total liquidation reached 528 million USD, affecting 177,200 people, among which long positions accounted for 466 million USD, with the largest ETH short position losing a staggering 14.48 million USD, leaving bulls questioning their existence. There are reports that this is related to the "resignation essay" of the Federal Reserve Chairman, but it is likely false; the essence is still the market's panic sentiment brewing.

⚡ ETH to the rescue? Fusaka upgrade on December 3, capable of processing 100,000 transactions per second
Ethereum fans have something to look forward to! The Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for the evening of December 3 (UTC time 21:49), after the upgrade, it will increase gas and block limits, relying on Layer-2 Rollup to boost transaction throughput to over 100,000 transactions per second. The previous issues of ETH congestion and high fees are expected to be resolved, and whether this technological upgrade can rejuvenate the market will depend on tonight's performance. $BTC #比特币

Cryptocurrency Short Term: Mainstream Bottoming Out, Altcoins Shouldn't Be Recklessly Copied
The central bank, along with 13 departments, has defined virtual currency operations as illegal, and Interpol has classified crypto fraud as a transnational crime, instantly cooling market sentiment. The short-term market is caught in a 'bull-bear tug-of-war', with mainstream coins supported by institutions, while altcoins collectively adjust due to capital flight, focusing on key points and position control.

BTC is currently stuck at $91,000, with strong support at $88,000-$89,000, which is the starting point for recent rebounds. If it falls below, it is likely to drop to $85,000. Resistance is concentrated between $92,000-$95,000, with whales having reduced their holdings by 23,000 BTC in November; selling pressure has not been fully released. Fortunately, ETFs have seen net inflows for two consecutive days, and some institutions have begun bottom-fishing, temporarily avoiding a one-sided crash, but breaking through still requires volume support.

ETH is slightly more resilient than BTC, fluctuating in the $2,950-$3,000 range. $2,950 is a critical line; holding above it provides a chance to challenge resistance at $3,080-$3,120. On-chain data shows that whales have increased their holdings by 440,000 ETH within a week, coupled with continued ETF capital inflow, providing technical support. However, its characteristic of fluctuating with BTC remains unchanged, making it difficult to stand alone.

The altcoin correction has become a foregone conclusion: SOL, ZEC, and other previously popular coins have fallen over 6%, and the slight rise of lesser-known coins is merely 'baiting the bulls'. The core reason is that after regulatory tightening, funds have flowed back from high-risk coins to mainstream coins, and most altcoins lack substantial benefits, making market sentiment based solely on speculation easily breakable. $BTC #比特币预测

Combining the cryptocurrency news on November 27 and long-short factors, mainstream coins are likely to maintain a high-level oscillation and a difficult-to-determine direction in the short term. Low liquidity and policy expectations will amplify volatility, and a few cryptocurrencies may have independent small markets. Specific predictions are as follows:
1. Bitcoin (BTC): After a daily high of 91950, it is consolidating at high levels, and in the short term, it is stuck in the range of 90500 - 91950. The selling pressure in the upper range of 91500 - 91950 is heavy; without strong sentiment and funds, it is difficult to break through. The core support below is 90500 - 90800, which is also the position of the hourly MA10 moving average. If it holds, it can continue the high-level oscillation; if it loses, it will test 89000, and in extreme cases, it may retrace to 86500. Moreover, the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday leads to low liquidity, and a small amount of funds may trigger significant fluctuations. Additionally, nearly 3.5 billion USD has flowed out from the BTC ETF in November, and the funding risks have not been completely eliminated, making a one-sided surge difficult to achieve.

2. Ethereum (ETH): After a synchronized rebound, it is oscillating near 3025, with the 3000 USD mark serving as both support and a psychological barrier. The pressure above is concentrated in the range of 3071 - 3100, where there are previous trapped positions; only a significant breakthrough can aim for 3120. The key defense line is at 3000 USD; if it retraces and loses this level, it will test the secondary support at 2950. However, its daily bullish momentum has not been fully released, and the retracement strength has been relatively weak. Overall, its resistance to decline is slightly stronger than BTC, and it is likely to oscillate along with BTC, but with smaller fluctuations.

Overall, the market is currently at a critical juncture of long-short contention. The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is the main positive factor, but the probability of a rate cut has already fluctuated. If the expectations cool down, it will suppress coin prices. At the same time, whether ETF fund inflows can continue and the risks of MicroStrategy's holdings are uncertain factors. In the short term, the oscillation pattern is difficult to break, and it is recommended to closely monitor key price levels and avoid heavy bets on direction. $BTC #比特币预测

11.26 Cryptocurrency market reversal countdown! BTC hits the critical line at 88,000, can SOL turn the tide with ETF?💥
The short-term market enters a "narrow fluctuation + potential breakout" mode, mainstream coins are at key points of contention, with only a few sectors having independent opportunities; keep a close eye on the points and avoid pitfalls!

🚀 BTC: 88,000 becomes a meat grinder, the breakout is just in these two days
Bitcoin is "weaving" in the 86,000-89,000 range, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the tightest this month, with bulls and bears in an extreme stalemate.
- If it can hold above 88,500 and break through 90,000 psychologically, it will directly trigger a short squeeze, targeting 91,000;
- If it can't hold the support at 86,000, it will immediately test the strong support at 85,000, and in extreme cases, it could drop back to 80,000.
Now is the "reduction in volume and energy accumulation" phase, with light liquidity during the U.S. Thanksgiving potentially amplifying volatility; do not bet heavily on direction!

🔥 ETH: $3,000 battleground, reversal signals have been fully activated
Ethereum is stuck in a rectangular consolidation at $2,900-$2,990, with volatility dropping to recent lows, and the 4-hour moving averages converging into a "reversal warning".
- A breakout above $3,000 will directly aim for $3,050;
- If it can't break through, it will pull back and test the strong support at $2,800, with $2,850 being a short-term lifeline.
The battle between whales is heating up, with $3,000 being both a psychological level and a capital level; a breakout represents a short-term profit opportunity!

🤑 Few opportunities: SOL relies on ETF against the wind, platform coins become a safe haven
- SOL: Franklin SOL ETF submits key documents, likely to open for trading tomorrow, with sentiment fully charged. In the short term, it can achieve an independent rebound amidst market fluctuations, but don't chase high; it is safer to buy on the pullback;
- Platform coins (BNB/OKB/HT): perform better than mainstream coins in terms of downside resistance, with BNB steadily rising, becoming a "safe choice" in a volatile market; just follow the technical trends in the short term.

⚠️ Other coins: without positive news, they're just running alongside; don't blindly bottom fish in altcoins
Most altcoins are still "BTC's tail", and coins other than SOL have no independent positives, likely "lying flat" at low levels.
Although the expectation for interest rate cuts has soared to 85%, which can provide a bottom, ETF funds are still fleeing, and regulatory policies are fluctuating; even if there is a rebound, it can easily be crushed by selling pressure; don't blindly bottom fish in obscure altcoins! $BTC #比特币预测

# 11.25 Crypto Market Reversal! BTC Soars to $99,000 and Then Plummets, 170,000 People Liquidated $550 Million💥
1. BTC Performs "Roller Coaster", $90,000 Becomes a Meat Grinder: First Soared to $89,288 Before Facing Resistance, Then Crazy Surge to $99,000 at Midnight, Suddenly Brakes, Plummeting Over 6% Below $93,000. The Technicals Are Stuck at the End of a Converging Triangle, Bollinger Bands Narrowed, Breakout Direction Depends on Funds' Mood.
2. ETH Leads the Charge Strongly, Whales Entering at the Bottom: Ethereum Jumped from $2,786 to $2,987, Nearly 5% Increase in 24 Hours, $3,000 Becomes Key Resistance. Whale nemorino.eth Spent $6 Million USDC to Buy 2,014 ETH, Costing $2,977, Betting on Subsequent Breakout.
3. Platform Tokens Surge Collectively, Technicals All Showing Positive Trends: BNB Breaks the Downtrend Line Aiming for $320, OKB Continues with RSI Soaring to 58 Aiming for $45, HT Is Charging Along the Upper Bollinger Band Towards the $4.8-$5.0 Resistance Zone, The Three Major Platform Tokens Are Sending Positive Signals Simultaneously.
4. Liquidation Wave Strikes, Short Positions Suffer Bloodbath Followed by Longs: Over 170,000 People Liquidated in 24 Hours, Total Amount Reaches $553 Million. Earlier Short Positions Liquidated $237 Million, BTC Short Positions Lost Over $81.43 Million, Followed by BTC's Plunge Resulting in Longs Being Harvested, the Largest Single Liquidation Reached $8.61 Million.
5. Institutional Whales Are Going Crazy, Pension Funds Also Joining the Fun: BlackRock Transferred $244 Million BTC + $102 Million ETH to Coinbase, But Was Criticized as a "Lagging Signal"; Sun Yuchen Transferred $150 Million BTC to Personal Wallet. New Jersey's $95 Billion Pension Fund Made a Move to Buy $160 Million BTC Exposure Through MicroStrategy.
6. Trump to Sign Executive Order, Might Involve Bitcoin Strategic Reserves: U.S. President Trump is Expected to Sign an Executive Order at 16:00 That Day, Market Speculates It May Involve Establishing Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, The News Caused Short-Term Market Volatility. $BTC #比特币走势分析

📅 November 23: A wave of rebound hits, bottom signals flash in clusters
1. BTC leads a major counterattack, altcoins surge: Bitcoin stabilizes at $87,000, rising over 3.5% in 24 hours, driving ETH and DOGE to rise simultaneously, XRP directly surges by 8%. Even more aggressively, the AI concept coin AIA rises by 41%, MAV skyrockets by 57%, and MYX surges by 14.73% due to 'short squeeze', with obscure coins enjoying a collective celebration.
2. Bottom signals are blindingly bright, whales and institutions secretly buy the dip: Addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have reached 90 (a 5-month high), spot trading volume hits recent peaks, and RSI enters extreme oversold territory (after similar historical situations, rebounds occurred). DWF Labs partners publicly state "prices are right, we've already entered the market", and ETFs also end their consecutive declines, showing small net inflows.
3. November returns are dismal, interest rate cuts expected to save the day: BTC's return rate for this month is temporarily reported at -21.28%, far below the historical average of 42.49%, erasing all gains from the year-to-date. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rises to 72%, injecting a strong dose of confidence into the market.
4. CryptoQuant data fails, urgent apology issued: The platform apologized for not excluding the impact of Coinbase wallet migration, which led to data anomalies. The CEO explained on the X platform and promised to update the data, causing a brief market panic.
5. Altcoin enthusiasm has cooled, seasonal index plummets: The altcoin seasonal index has fallen to 25, significantly down from the September peak of 78 and last week's average of 31, with speculative funds concentrating on the top and a few popular concepts, while most altcoins are left unattended. $BTC #比特币走势分析

Combining the virtual currency market news and market data from November 22, the virtual currency market is likely to continue its weak oscillation in the short term. Bitcoin, as the barometer, is the core of the trend, while niche currencies like Pi coin find it difficult to change the market's downturn. Overall risk is at a maximum, with specific predictions as follows:

1. Bitcoin: Short-term weakness is hard to change, with $80,000 as the critical line: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has fallen below the key long-term MVRV average band and the bull-bear dividing line of the 365-day moving average. On November 22, it was still struggling at around $80,000, with the next downward target pointing directly to $75,000. In the options market, traders are clustering around put options with strike prices ranging from $80,000 to $90,000, coupled with the fear and greed index dropping to a low level, leading to heightened bearish sentiment. However, there are also optimistic voices, such as “crypto bull” Tom Lee, who claims that the current deleveraging cycle has already lasted six weeks and is likely to end after another two weeks of adjustment. In the short term, it is highly probable that it will oscillate in the $80,000 - $88,000 range. If it breaks below the $80,000 support level, it may quickly test $74,000 - $75,000; if it stabilizes, it could trigger a technical rebound towards $85,000 - $89,000.

2. Other mainstream currencies: Following Bitcoin's drop, it is difficult to have an independent market: Mainstream currencies like Ethereum have also entered a plummeting mode alongside Bitcoin, with a drop of over 10% within 24 hours. Currently, market funds are focused on Bitcoin's trend, and the overall environment is characterized by deleveraging and capital withdrawals, leaving these currencies lacking the funds and emotional support for an independent rise. In the short term, it is highly probable that they will continue to follow Bitcoin's downward trend, with synchronized fluctuations, making it difficult to see a counter-trend rebound.

Additionally, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are cooling, and the continued capital outflow from virtual currency ETFs, along with other macro and market factors, are continuously putting pressure on the entire virtual currency market. In the short term, the market remains in a high-risk zone, with volatility likely to further escalate. $BTC $ETH #比特币预测

Bitcoin's Short-Term Life-and-Death Situation! Can 80,000 Hold? 75,000 Becomes the Next Meat Grinder💣

On November 21, a crash of 9% broke through 81,000 USD, and Bitcoin is now a 'startled bird'! The Fear & Greed Index soared to an extreme panic level of 13, with the technicals completely collapsing and capital fleeing wildly. In the next 1-3 weeks, 75,000 USD will be the ultimate lifeline determining life and death!

🔪 Bearish Kill Shot: 3 Ironclad Evidence of a Necessary Drop

- Technicals Completely Flat: The key MVRV 'Fair Value Line' has directly fallen below, with support levels of 89,600 and 85,700 collapsing within seconds. Now even the 80,000 mark is precarious. The next target is directly aimed at 75,700 USD (-0.5σ band strong support), representing an 18% drop space from the current price.

- Capital is in Mass Exodus: BlackRock's IBIT saw a record outflow of 523 million USD in a single day, with the cumulative bleeding of over 3 billion since November in the US spot ETF. The outflow of capital and the downward trend have formed a 'death spiral,' with no one daring to step in to catch the falling knife.

- The Federal Reserve Has Passed 'Death Sentence': The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 30%, with a 70% probability of maintaining high interest rates. In the context of dollar tightening, Bitcoin, as a 'non-yielding asset,' is the first to be sold off.

✨ The Only Lifeline: 2 Unmissable Reversal Signals

Extreme Panic = Bottom Warning: Historical data shows that when the Fear & Greed Index is below 20, it is often a short-term bottom signal. The last time the index was 13, Bitcoin rebounded by 12% within 5 days.

Whales Are Secretly Accumulating: On-chain data shows that in the past month, whales have been continuously hoarding coins, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has doubled its Bitcoin ETF holdings, indicating that long-term capital is not panicking.

🎯 3-Week Market Script: Just Watch These 3 Nodes

- 💀 Crash Script (Probability 50%) Trigger Conditions: 80,000 USD Cannot Hold + Fed Turns Hawkish + Strategy Excluded by MSCI Triggers 2.8 Billion Outflow Target: First hit 75,000 USD, extreme case tests the 74,000 USD low in April (30% space from current)

- 🤏 Consolidation Script (Probability 35%) Trigger Conditions: 75,000 USD Holds + ETF Capital Outflow Narrows + Panic Emotion Eases Range: 'Weave' between 75,000-85,000 USD, waiting for the December Fed meeting to set direction.

- 🚀 Rebound Script (Probability 15%) Trigger Conditions: Sudden Rate Cut Signal + ETF Capital Returns + Whales Large-Scale Accumulation Target: Rebound height is limited, first look at the psychological level of 90,000 USD, breakthrough needed to touch 95,000 $BTC #BTC走势分析

The current $92,000 Bitcoin is staging a "battle of the bulls and bears"—on one side, the ETF is fleeing with a signal of a bloodbath of $2.6 billion, while on the other side, the MVRV is bottoming out + death cross is a reversal surprise. In the next 1-2 weeks, the $80,000 level will become the ultimate gamble!

⚠️ Bearish kill shot: 3 must-watch signals of a short-term explosion
- ETF funding strangulation: The U.S. spot ETF has fled for 5 weeks, and BlackRock's IBIT has leaked a record $523 million in a single day, with fund withdrawals and declines forming a "death spiral"
- Options market lights up red: The put/call option ratio has soared to a new high for July, retail investors are frantically buying puts for hedging, and the derivatives market is filled with "runaway" vibes
- Technical breakdown: The "death cross" of the 50-day moving average breaking below the 200-day moving average has been confirmed. Historical data shows that if there is no rebound within 7 days, there is a high probability of another crash

Bearish target: First test the $84,000-$86,000 support, if it collapses hard, it might touch the previous low of $74,500

🎯 1-2 week trend script: 3 outcomes for you to bet on

- 🌪️ Crash script (probability 45%) Trigger condition: $90,000 cannot hold + 7 days without rebound after death cross + Fed hawkish statement: first smash $84,000-$86,000, in extreme cases test $74,500

- 🚀 Rebound script (probability 40%) Trigger condition: $90,000 stabilizes + MVRV bottoms and rebounds + whales continue to add positions target: first rush to $98,000-$100,000, after breaking through look at $106,000 resistance

- ⚖️ Volatility script (probability 15%) Bulls and bears are stalemated at $88,000-$95,000 "weaving cloth", everyone waits for the December 10th Fed meeting to "determine life and death"

🔑 Ultimate variable: a word from the Fed decides life and death $BTC #

Bitcoin Bloodbath Chronicle: Single-Day Plunge of 5.4%, 180,000 People Liquidated! Key Points to Watch in the Long/Short Betting

🔥 Crash Update: 90,000 Threshold in Crisis, Market Value Vaporized by 400 Billion

Current Price $91,800-$93,400 | 24h Decline of 5.4% | Market Value Shrunk to $18.3 Trillion
$930 Million Liquidated in 24h, with Long Positions Accounting for 70%, 180,000 Investors Forced to Liquidate—This Drop from the October High of $126,000 Has Erased All Gains of 2025!

💣 Crash Culprits: Three Major Forces Strangling the Market

- Federal Reserve Hawkish: December Rate Cut Probability Falls Below 50%, Dollar Liquidity Tightens, Bitcoin and Other "Non-Yielding Assets" Are the First to Be Sold Off

- Institutions Fleeing: BlackRock's IBIT ETF Saw a Net Outflow of 180 Million in a Single Day, Spot ETF Inflows Halved by 90%, Hedge Funds Collectively Took Profits

- Whales Dumping: "Old Whales" Holding for Over 7 Years Accelerate Exit, Selling 1,000 Coins Every Hour, Totaling 815,000 Coins Sold in 30 Days

📊 Key Signals: Oversold but Downtrend Unstoppable?

Technical Alerts

RSI Plummeted to 32.14, Close to Oversold Line (30)
MACD Deeply Negative, All Moving Averages Broken
Strong Support: $85,000-$90,000 (Key Fibonacci Level)
Resistance: $98,000-$100,000 (Psychological Threshold)

Market Sentiment

Fear and Greed Index Dropped to 15, Entering the "Extreme Fear" Zone
Negative Discussion Volume Surged 3 Times, But On-Chain Data Hides Secrets: 75% of Bitcoin Holdings Exceed 12 Months, Exchange Reserves Continue to Decline, Long-Term Holders Are Still "Hoarding Coins"

⚔️ Long/Short Tug-of-War: One Side Calls for 80,000, While the Other Bets on 150,000

- Bearish Camp (Morgan Stanley, etc.): "The Market Has Entered Autumn," Warning of a Drop to $85,000 or Even $80,000

- Bullish Camp (Tom Lee, etc.): Sticking to Year-End Target of $150,000-$200,000, Claiming "Oversold + Extreme Panic = Prelude to Rebound," Coinbase Even Provided a $90,000-$160,000 Range Prediction $BTC #比特币走势分析

🚨Bitcoin Short-Term Life and Death Situation! 85,000 is the bottom line, should we buy the dip or run away?
The FUD in the crypto circle is at its peak! Bitcoin plummeted by 5.84%, falling below 90,000, with 170,000 people getting rekt and liquidating 6.7 billion, and all gains for the year wiped out. Should we buy the dip or just lie flat now? The trend in 1-2 weeks will directly determine life and death!

📉Three Major Scenario Predictions (with probabilities)
1. Pessimistic Scenario (60% probability): Directly heading to 80,000!
- If 85,000 can't hold, it will trigger a chain sell-off, the next stop is the 75,000-80,000 range.
- Whales continue to dump + ETF bleeding + Federal Reserve hawkish signals, bear market signals at full blast.
- Buying the dip = catching falling knives, be careful not to get rubbed into the ground by the market.

2. Optimistic Scenario (30% probability): Oversold rebound to 96,000!
- Buying funds appear in the 89,000-90,000 range, RSI oversold rebound.
- Resistance levels at 92,000-94,000, if broken, it can reach 96,000.
- Trigger conditions: Panic sentiment peaks, ETF stops bleeding and returns.

3. Neutral Scenario (10% probability): Sideways stagnation.
- Narrow fluctuations in the 89,000-92,000 range, both bulls and bears are watching.
- Trading volume shrinks, waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to set the direction.

🔑Three Key Observation Points for Life and Death
1. Fund Flow: Is the ETF bleeding stopped? Is the exchange wallet decreasing? (signal to hold coins)
2. Technical Bottom Line: Can 85,000 hold? It must stay above 90,000 for three consecutive days to stabilize.
3. Macroeconomic Bomb: Federal Reserve November meeting minutes + December rate cut expectations, one sentence could cause a collapse or a surge.

🎯Different Player Operation Guides
- Short-term players: Gradually test small positions in the 85,000-90,000 range, stop loss at 83,000; quickly take profits at 94,000-96,000.
- Medium to long-term HODLers: Lie flat and wait, consider adding positions below 80,000.
- Cash holders: Don't FOMO! Wait for clear rebound signals before entering, don’t be a bag holder.

⚠️Ultimate Warning
85,000 is the short-term lifeline, breaking below it goes directly to 70,000; holding it can rebound and recover losses. The current fear index in the crypto circle is only 11, under extreme panic there may be opportunities, but the risks far outweigh the rewards! $BTC #比特币预测

Ultimate Prediction of BTC Short-term Trend: The Life-and-Death Battle at 90,000, Will It Dive Directly to 80,000? 🔥
In the past few days, BTC has dropped dramatically! 93,000 hit the bottom + 220,000 people liquidated losing 1 billion, now the whole market is betting whether the 90,000 level can hold, there are two extreme scenarios for the short-term trend!

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✅ Scenario One: 90,000 Holds → Consolidation and Rebound, Aiming for 100,000!
- Key Support Holds Strong: 90,000 is a dense area for retail investors' costs + long-term technical support, combined with the “death cross” bullish resonance, historically this signal often corresponds to a bottom
- Bottom-fishing Funds Entering: Micro Strategies and Asian Sovereign Funds have quietly increased their positions at 90,000–92,000, if ETF funds stop the decline and flow back, it will directly ignite a rebound
- Rebound Path: First, break through the 98,000–100,000 resistance zone, if it stabilizes at 100,400, it opens up the space for an attack on 103,000

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❌ Scenario Two: 90,000 Fails → Chain Reaction Collapse, Down to 80,000!
- Stop-loss Orders Explode: 90,000–91,000 has over 320 million long stop-loss orders buried, breaking the level will trigger a chain liquidation, selling pressure cannot be stopped
- Institutions are Still Running: ETF saw a single-day massive outflow of 870 million, setting a record for the second-largest outflow in history, BlackRock and Fidelity are withdrawing
- Downward Target: First stop at 84,500, if it cannot hold, it will directly rush to 80,000, even testing 73,800 deep support

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⚠️ Life-and-Death Variables: These 2 Signals Determine the Direction!
- Fund Signal: ETF single-day net inflow exceeding 50 million = sentiment warming, continuous outflow = bear market continuation
- Technical Signal: Stabilizing at 96,000 = rebound starts, breaking below 93,000 = a new round of sell-off begins
- Macroeconomic Signal: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is now 50%, once it changes, it will directly bring down risk assets

In simple terms: The short-term BTC is just a “gamble”, the 90,000 level is the line of life and death! Retail investors should avoid leverage, either wait for stabilization at 96,000 before following the trend, or wait for it to drop to 85,000 for a light position test, blindly bottom-fishing = sending people to their deaths! $BTC #比特币预测

Bitcoin Recent Major Events Overview
Bitcoin has "collapsed" directly in the past few days! On November 14, it fell below the $100,000 mark, hitting a low of $94,480, creating a six-month low, with a daily drop of over 7%. 230,000 people suffered liquidations, losing 7.2 billion RMB, and it is still lying flat in the range of $94,000 to $96,000.

1. Major Crash Highlights
On November 14, a single-day flash crash of over 7% occurred, dropping from the historical high of $126,000 in October to now, accumulating a drop of over 22%, with a market capitalization evaporating by $450 billion.
On November 15, the decline continued, with a further drop of 5% in 24 hours, and the entire network's leverage was crazily liquidated.

2. Unveiling the Causes of the Crash
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have cooled down, leading to a frantic capital outflow for safety.
Trump's new tariff policy has stirred things up, causing global trade anxiety.
Institutions voted with their feet, with Bitcoin ETF seeing a record outflow of $1.22 billion in a single week, setting a historical record.
Concerns about AI impacting finance have escalated, causing cryptocurrencies to be sold off alongside tech stocks.

3. Market Sentiment Has Collapsed
The fear index has dropped to 16, directly entering the "extreme fear" mode, the lowest of the year.
The once-in-seven-years "death cross" is approaching (the 50-day moving average is about to break the 200-day moving average), with some predicting a drop to $70,000, while others gamble on a rebound to $145,000, leading to heated debates between bulls and bears.
Whale investors are increasingly selling off, with positions hitting a historic low of $BTC $ETH $BNB #比特币恐慌 .

The current state of Bitcoin is "The long-short game is intense, bottom signals and capital retreat are flying together." The core focus is on three points:

1. Price tug-of-war: Repeated fluctuations around 100,000
Currently oscillating in the range of 102,000 to 106,000 USD, it just rebounded from around 98,000 but faced resistance, making the 100,000 mark a battleground for bulls and bears. The technical indicators are somewhat divided, as we are about to face a "death cross" that occurs once every seven years, but the RSI is approaching oversold levels. Historical data shows that similar patterns often lead to rebounds, clearly a "crisis presents opportunities."

2. Divergence in capital flows: Whales buying the dip vs Retail + institutions retreating
Institutions seem a bit cold, with ETF outflows hitting record highs and capital inflows plummeting by 90%. Many listed companies have seen their holdings drop below cost lines. Interestingly, whales holding over 10,000 coins are buying against the trend in the 98,000 to 102,000 USD range, while retail long-term holders are taking profits and reducing their positions, a typical scenario of "large funds picking up chips while small funds panic and flee."

3. The macro environment provides support but concerns remain
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts + geopolitical conflicts have provided support for Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes, and the long-term trend towards institutionalization remains unchanged, with sovereign funds quietly increasing their positions. However, regulatory uncertainties + the aftershocks of the U.S. government shutdown, along with a lack of new buying pressure in the short term, make it challenging to break through the resistance level of 108,000, and a unilateral market trend is unlikely for now. $BTC $ETH $BNB #加密市场观察

I said why it has been so difficult to grab lately, it turns out the bonus period is over