November 22, 2025
The market has temporarily stabilized. To be honest, the speed of the recent decline has been too fast. Since the big coin broke through the previous high of 70,000, it has maintained a low volatility high-level fluctuation. This is the first time such a huge bearish candle has appeared. As for Ethereum and other mainstream altcoins, there is a feeling of being numb to the decline. At this point, I can only be thankful that I gradually reduced my position when prices were high, leaving 40-50% of my funds. To be honest, this market has not really stabilized, and the probability of 80,000 serving as a support level is also quite low, but I have still chosen to buy some first.
The main force behind this round of market crash should still be the traditional whales in the cryptocurrency space. However, the reason for the rapid decline in the market is that many traditional financial assets have entered, and they tend to use leverage. Therefore, when the market starts to fall, it triggers a chain reaction of forced liquidation and margin calls, causing prices to plummet quickly. Currently, the market value of MicroStrategy's stock has fallen below the net value of its Bitcoin holdings. The biggest leveraged player, MicroStrategy, has not yet experienced an extreme market downturn, so if Bitcoin accelerates its decline again, whether its stock price can withstand the market's test remains a question mark.
The main reason I started buying is that the sentiment has reached an extremely pessimistic state. Generally speaking, price bottoms tend to lag behind sentiment bottoms, but I believe that if I don't dare to buy now, waiting for the price to drop further will still make me hesitant. Additionally, the recent decline is influenced by the macro environment, such as the pullback in gold, the retracement in U.S. stocks, and the drop in the A-share market. Since this is a correlated market, I think there's no need to be too pessimistic because there will definitely be rescue policies introduced. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has significantly increased compared to before, mainly due to the recent significant drop in U.S. stocks.
Based on this judgment, the probability of Bitcoin finding a phase bottom support in the range of 70,000 to 80,000 is still quite high. However, the greatest fear for financial assets is liquidity risk because once liquidity is lost, it can easily lead to a sharp drop or even a flash crash, which everyone should have experienced on 1011. Therefore, even when bottom-fishing, I would advise everyone to focus on the main assets in spot trading. Altcoins can be bought in moderation, but one must not be greedy and rush in. Over the weekend, there were no institutional traders working, so there were no active sell orders. However, based on my experience, I feel that next week will still be a turbulent one. When taking on positions, slow down the pace, and the price gradients below can be set a bit larger.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
