Last night, Bitcoin shot up to $80,000. From a peak of 126,000, it has plummeted 30% in 43 days. The yen has fallen 3.7% in a month, and the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surged to 3.774%. In one day, the U.S. stock market evaporated $2.3 trillion.

Why is the whole world falling together?

The answer is simple: Japan.

What exactly did Japan do to cause such severe consequences?

Because the Japanese government approved a stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen on Friday, essentially telling the market: they can no longer hold on.

What is the current situation in Japan?

• The economy experienced direct negative growth of -0.4% in the third quarter.

• Inflation has exceeded 3% for 43 consecutive months, and wages have not risen.

• Debt is three times GDP, the highest in the world.

The stimulus plan is not for improvement, but to prevent things from getting worse.

As soon as Japan announced it, three things exploded simultaneously within just 48 hours:

• The yen against the dollar broke 157, which is basically a level the Japanese government cannot tolerate; if it goes higher, they will intervene to stabilize the market.

• The yield on 40-year government bonds rose from 3.697% to 3.774%.

• Japan's government will have to pay an additional 2.8 trillion yen in interest this year.

The Bank of Japan is now cornered; whether to raise interest rates or not, the entire world will suffer.

Why does the yen have such a big impact? Before that, we need to understand how global institutions have played in recent years.

That is, carry trades, borrowing cheap yen, converting it to dollars, and frantically investing in overseas high-interest assets like real estate, U.S. stocks, and BTC, earning the interest rate differential in between. The foreign exchange market estimates that the scale of global carry trades exceeds $20 trillion, with the yen being the biggest player.

As long as the yen is weak, they can earn money easily. But what about now?

Japanese bonds are soaring, interest rates are climbing, and the yen could rebound at any time. Investors can now only do one thing: sell BTC and U.S. stocks frantically without regard for cost, and quickly pay back the money.

So this is not an ordinary correction; this is a forced liquidation, a panic sell-off.

What’s next for BTC?

The key support zone is between $82,000 and $84,000, where 825,000 BTC are piled up. If it holds → we can look at $100,000 by the end of the year; if it doesn’t hold → $74,000 to $77,000 will be hit again, and then it will truly be a bear market.

A bear market is both a crisis and an opportunity. When the market washes away the unreasonable parts, the new cycle will be stronger. The same goes for BTC; what you need to do is to survive, not leave this market, and not have regrets.