The market in the past two days has probably been the most 'bizarre' drop I've experienced this year.
There were no exchange closures, no regulatory crackdowns, and even the U.S. government has reopened. Logically, everything should be improving. But the market's feedback is that: BTC has easily broken through 82,000, and altcoins are even more unbearable.
Sitting in front of the computer, I reviewed the entire day, finishing the latest macro liquidity report and on-chain data. I found that we (including myself) had previously fallen into a collective **'cognitive inertia trap'**.
I will share three counterintuitive findings that may help everyone clarify their thoughts for the upcoming period:
One: What we thought was "quantitative easing" is actually "quantitative tightening". When I saw the US government ending the shutdown and reopening, the majority of people's first reaction was: "Great, the government is going to spend money, liquidity is coming." But the reality is just the opposite. I took a look at the Treasury General Account (TGA) data, and the balance was stubbornly stuck above $900 billion. This made me realize an overlooked common sense: after such a long government shutdown, the treasury is empty, and the first thing upon reopening is not to "disburse money", but to madly issue debt to "replenish inventory". This is like a huge vacuum pump that not only does not release liquidity but is actually forcibly extracting the already scarce dollars from the banking system. We are all waiting for the rain to come, but the clouds above have been drained dry.
Two: How did good news become bad news? The revised non-farm payroll data for September came out, showing an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 55,000. If this were before, we would say the US economy is strong. But in the current context, this has become a nightmare for the cryptocurrency market. Why? Because our previous logic for rising was based on the expectation of "economic recession -> the Federal Reserve being forced to cut interest rates to save the market". Now that the data is so good, the Federal Reserve has instantly gained confidence, and the probability of a rate cut in December plummeted from 95% to 50%. It turns out we have been paying for the "recession" all along, and once "prosperity" truly arrives, the bubble bursts instead.
Three: Why is the exit of the whales so deadly? At this fragile moment of macro tightening and unmet expectations, the on-chain whale known as "Owen Gunden" from the Satoshi era chose to liquidate. He sold $1.3 billion worth of BTC. Under normal circumstances, this amount might be absorbed. But at a time when liquidity is being drained by the TGA, this became the last straw that broke the camel's back, directly penetrating market depth. This made me reflect: during liquidity droughts, any technical support level is as thin as paper in the face of real monetary selling pressure.
My conclusion is: this is a typical deleveraging triggered by "macro mismatch". Although it is painful in the short term, I believe that the market's caution is just a revaluation of the entire US stock market and cryptocurrency, bringing it back to a balance point. For the long term, I think BTC is currently in a discount phase.
