Evonne Pendleton fE11
入圈一年的小散户 在犯错中总结经验分享经验
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In-Depth Review: Why Have Cryptocurrencies Recently Followed U.S. Stocks Down but Not Up?
The most frustrating characteristic of the recent market is this: whenever U.S. stocks pull back, cryptocurrencies often dive immediately, even experiencing deeper declines; yet when U.S. stocks stabilize and rebound or even reach new highs, cryptocurrencies appear indifferent and continue to decline subtly.
This phenomenon of weak correlation is quite challenging psychologically in trading, but in terms of the market's microstructure, it is actually a very clear signal. If one does not understand the underlying logic and blindly enters the market hoping for a 'catch-up rally', the current probability of success would be very low.
Based on my observations of recent capital flows and the macro environment, I believe this 'following the decline but not the rise' mainly stems from three levels of liquidity mismatch.
This phenomenon of weak correlation is quite challenging psychologically in trading, but in terms of the market's microstructure, it is actually a very clear signal. If one does not understand the underlying logic and blindly enters the market hoping for a 'catch-up rally', the current probability of success would be very low.
Based on my observations of recent capital flows and the macro environment, I believe this 'following the decline but not the rise' mainly stems from three levels of liquidity mismatch.
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About the December Market: The U.S. Stock Market 'Christmas Effect' and Its Connection to the Crypto Market
It is already late November, and many friends have been asking me how I see the end of the year in this more than one month. The market sentiment is a bit complicated right now; we are both looking forward to the year-end rally and afraid of standing guard at high positions. My personal view is that to understand how cryptocurrencies will move next, we must first look towards Wall Street.
We are all talking about the traditional 'Christmas rally' effect in the U.S. stock market. This is not just a statistical rule; there is a strong behavioral finance logic behind it: at the end of the year, institutions often need to 'window dress' their performance, which usually pushes up core assets like the Nasdaq.
We are all talking about the traditional 'Christmas rally' effect in the U.S. stock market. This is not just a statistical rule; there is a strong behavioral finance logic behind it: at the end of the year, institutions often need to 'window dress' their performance, which usually pushes up core assets like the Nasdaq.
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In-depth Review: Why does the market always operate against intuition? A few thoughts on the recent 'silent collapse'
The market in the past two days has probably been the most 'bizarre' drop I've experienced this year.
There were no exchange closures, no regulatory crackdowns, and even the U.S. government has reopened. Logically, everything should be improving. But the market's feedback is that: BTC has easily broken through 82,000, and altcoins are even more unbearable.
Sitting in front of the computer, I reviewed the entire day, finishing the latest macro liquidity report and on-chain data. I found that we (including myself) had previously fallen into a collective **'cognitive inertia trap'**.
I will share three counterintuitive findings that may help everyone clarify their thoughts for the upcoming period:
There were no exchange closures, no regulatory crackdowns, and even the U.S. government has reopened. Logically, everything should be improving. But the market's feedback is that: BTC has easily broken through 82,000, and altcoins are even more unbearable.
Sitting in front of the computer, I reviewed the entire day, finishing the latest macro liquidity report and on-chain data. I found that we (including myself) had previously fallen into a collective **'cognitive inertia trap'**.
I will share three counterintuitive findings that may help everyone clarify their thoughts for the upcoming period:
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