$BTC ｜Historical Patterns Reveal: The Bear Market Bottom is Approaching, $50,000 May Be the Ultimate Support!

Brothers, looking back at past bear markets for Bitcoin, a key pattern emerges: the declines are gradually narrowing!

· 2011: -94% (Mt. Gox Hack Incident)

· 2014: -85% (Mt. Gox Bankruptcy)

· 2018: -83% (Bubble Burst + Regulatory Crackdown)

· 2021: -75% (Musk's Reversal + China's Exit)

· 2025: -27% (as of November) — But if we project based on historical decay rates, if 2026 weakens, a correction of -60% to -65% is a reasonable limit!

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📉 Why is $50,000 a Key Bottom?

1. Cycle Decay Logic: The declines from 94%→85%→83%→75%… down to the 60% range correspond to a bottom of approximately $50,000 (calculated from the high point of $126,000);

2. On-Chain Data Support: The MVRV indicator shows that the -0.5σ support zone is at $75,700, if broken, the next target is $52,800 (similar to the bear market bottoms of 2018/2021);

3. Institutional Consensus: Multiple analysis reports indicate that $50,000 is the key target for the bottom of the 2026 cycle.

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⚡ Current Signal: The Main Players are in Action

· Whale Accumulation: Large addresses have been continuously increasing their holdings over the past month, while retail investors panic sell (the sentiment index has hit a new low since 2022);

· Technical Oversold: RSI has dropped to 22.9, close to historic bottom levels, with the Bollinger Band lower bound at $83,800 becoming strong short-term support;

· Liquidity Washout: After the $19 billion leverage liquidation on October 10, market vulnerability has significantly decreased, and rebound momentum is accumulating.

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🎯 Strategy: How to Capture the Bottom Region?

· Short-term: If a rebound reaches the resistance zone of $96,000 to $99,000, consider reducing positions in batches;

· Medium to Long-term: Gradually build positions in the $50,000 to $55,000 range, with stop-loss set below $48,000;

· Key Validation: If BTC breaks through $100,000 with volume, the bear market bottom becomes invalid, and a new upward wave will begin.

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History does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes.

When everyone in the market is fearful, real opportunities are stirring beneath the surface —

Click "Trade-X" to position yourself in advance for the last golden pit of this cycle!

Data Source: CoinGlass, Cointelegraph, Bitwise#比特币波动性 #美股2026预测