The new Federal Reserve correspondent Nick Timiraos published an article titled (Powell is not the biggest obstacle to rate cuts), stating that even though Trump appointed a new Federal Reserve chairman, his desire for rate cuts next year is difficult to realize — because the power structure of the Federal Reserve is undergoing a historically significant transformation ('Changing the chairman = rate cuts' is the biggest misunderstanding).
The article is lengthy, but there are only two main points:
First, the December meeting may see three or more dissenting votes. The Federal Reserve may adopt an unprecedented decision-making approach in the future — completely relying on majority votes.
Interpretation: The stability in the history of the Federal Reserve did not rely on 'the authority of the chair', but rather on repeated communication before meetings, a unified public narrative, and voting that almost always reflects an 'overwhelming consensus'. Now, there may be '3 or even 4 dissenting votes', and whether it is 'rate cuts' or 'pauses', there will be strong opposition. This means that the Federal Reserve has lost its precious 'consensus', and the 'new Federal Reserve chair' cannot arbitrarily lower rates.
Secondly, it suggests that the Federal Reserve will enter a '7:5' mode.
Interpretation: The so-called '7:5' mode means 7 votes in favor and 5 votes against. The FOMC's voting structure consists of: a total of 12 votes, requiring a simple majority (≥7 votes) to pass. This is very dangerous because what the financial market truly prices is not the policy itself, but the predictability of the policy and the stability of the decision-making path. For the market, this means: even more! agitation! Volatility rises, market fluctuations become frequent, there is an overreaction to every statement from the Federal Reserve, and the U.S. stock market, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar index completely shift to being 'event-driven'—large rises and large falls will become the norm.
What the market cares about in the short term is: Will there be a rate cut in December? But more importantly, can the Federal Reserve still exist as a unified voice? Can the market still 'trust the path'?
This week we witnessed it once. On Friday, New York Fed President Williams urgently intervened, stating that there is 'room for rate cuts in the short term'. But just a few hours later, his colleague Collins indicated that it is currently appropriate to maintain the interest rate.
In the face of this situation, Trump may adopt unconventional means: dismissing regional Federal Reserve presidents and replacing board members, turning the Federal Reserve into a true 'White House weather vane'.
Everyone is focused on CPI and non-farm payrolls every day, but the real black swan is systemic risk. Timiraos is not writing news; he is sounding the alarm.#比特币波动性 $BTC
