The cryptocurrency market has dropped to 80,000, and I realized: the bottom is never an opportunity; it's a filter.

The entire cryptocurrency circle is currently going through three questions: Is this the bottom? When can we buy at the bottom? Has the bear market arrived?

But if I say it, no one might believe me: 90% of the people asking these questions don’t really want to increase their positions — they just want reassurance. Because the vast majority of people have already maxed out their positions.

How severe was this round of plummet? BTC fell from 126,000 all the way down to 81,000, even spiking to 80,500. Many people around me are stuck in a position of being liquidated. Looking at that pierced weekly trend line, it would be a lie to say I'm not anxious: feeling uneasy, doubting the bull market, doubting the logic of Bitcoin, and even unable to help but think, 'Is the entire cycle over?'

But having experienced three bull and bear markets, I know very well that this is very normal — now is the most typical 'maximum suspicion moment' in a bull market. Not only are retail investors panicking, but the main players are also panicking, and even global liquidity is in a state of panic. At such moments, it is precisely the point where fate diverges: you either get scared away by panic or hold on to the wealth freedom of the next three years.

To determine whether it’s the bottom and whether it will continue to fall, one must first understand the core reasons for this catastrophic plunge; I've sorted out three points:

First, major institutions facing liquidation + passive redemptions causing a stampede. Many people think institutions won't lose, but that's a huge misconception. In this bull market, many institutions built positions above BTC 110000 and ETH 3800; now they are down nearly 30%, and the crypto ETFs in the US stock market are similarly losing. When investors see losses of 30%-40%, they redeem frantically, forcing institutions to sell coins at low levels, directly triggering a stampede; in fact, institutions are even more passive than retail investors.

Second, the liquidity in the crypto circle has completely 'died.' The big drop on October 11th was a milestone — short-selling institutions discovered that market liquidity was absurdly poor, and with a slight push, they could penetrate dozens of billions in depth; a slight movement could trigger waterfall liquidations. Now, the higher the BTC price, the thinner the depth, and the altcoins' spike bottoms are still stuck at that deadly moment in October. More critically, institutions can access retail holding data from exchanges, precisely monitoring stop-loss points for high-frequency short-selling, which is why we see repeated spikes at 80000 and 80500 points.

Third, risk aversion sentiment is crushing interest rate cut expectations. Many people think it is caused by the tightening expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but in fact, the medium-term liquidity impact is far less than the short-term panic. Now, with local wars and diplomatic frictions constantly occurring, all funds are running toward safe-haven assets like gold, driving gold prices skyrocketing. Even Tether is buying physical gold and building warehouses, while governments are continuously increasing their holdings, everyone is hedging against risks, and naturally, the crypto circle is being drained.

Understanding these three points will clarify whether the declines can stop and rebound; the key is whether these three factors can reverse: the retail rush to redeem has temporarily eased (those who needed to redeem or liquidate have mostly done so), but the liquidity issue remains unresolved, and risk aversion sentiment has not been completely lifted. However, from a short-term perspective, 80500 points is highly likely to be a short-term panic bottom — after all, BTC quickly rebounded to 85000 after the spike, and the market is currently in a state of extreme panic, with many excellent traders trapped above 94000.

I still insist on what I said before, the 'three bottom principle.' The support range is between 79000 and 83000 points (plus or minus 2000 points), and below that is the average position price of MicroStrategy at 74000 points, which is the lifeline of this bull market. If there's a rebound, first look at the Fibonacci 0.382 at 97000 points; after stabilizing and consolidating, it is highly likely to reach 103000 points, and then I'll analyze the subsequent trends in detail.

As someone who's been through it, I want to give everyone two survival tips; if done well, it can at least increase your survival probability by 200% and help you gain maximum profits when the market comes.

Switching from a profit mentality to a survival mentality: never average down on any contract long positions, only replenish margin; if you haven't made any contracts, just don't touch them, only buy spot, and only buy mainstream coins, preferably just focus on BTC, and don't touch any junk altcoins. Surviving is the only chance for a comeback.

Madly improving physical condition: the truly long-term profitable traders are not the ones who can draw the best lines or make the best predictions, but those whose bodies and emotions are the most stable. Bottom fluctuations can tear mental states into pieces; only those who sleep well and can withstand pressure can hold onto bottom chips. I now lift weights, swim, and meditate every day, working efficiently with my team, and my attention and emotional stability have improved tremendously — subsequent market launches require 24-hour high focus, and without good health, it's simply unsustainable.

Lastly, I want to say: the bottom is never an opportunity; it's a filter. It will continuously filter out those who are not stable enough, disciplined enough, or strong enough to be clear-headed. If this really is the bottom, don't guess, don't gamble, don't fantasize, just do two things: keep living and keep improving yourself.

Get through it, and you'll turn the tables. Go for it, crypto people.#美国非农数据超预期 #比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析 #BTC走势分析