善者论币

In the sea of currency fluctuations, a guiding light for you: the Lifeline Trading System! #BTC #ETH

Evening Review #ETH走势分析
🔥 ETH plummets sharply! 3150 becomes the key watershed, with clear long and short strategies outlined
Current ETH price is around 3188, with an intraday decline expanding to 4.0%. After a peak of 3446, it performed a “high platform dive,” quickly retracting nearly half of the gains, and the short-term trend has fallen into a volatile adjustment. The core reason lies in short-term capital focusing on profit-taking + tightening liquidity in the US market, officially entering a phase of sharp declines and technical adjustments. Although the medium-term upward trend remains intact, the short-term bullish momentum has significantly weakened, and operations need to be approached with caution.
Personal views, for observation only
✅ Long (enter positions at support, staggered entry)
Range: 3110-3130 (strong support area upon decline, prioritize choosing stabilized nodes with low volume);
Targets: First target 3220 (primary resistance for short-term rebound), second target 3250 (pressure near mid-track), third target 3280 (previous fluctuation platform);
Stop loss: 3080 (breaking below this level is considered failure of support, exit directly to avoid risk).
✅ Short (enter positions at resistance during retracement, strictly control position size)
Entry: 3245-3265 (retracing to mid-track / previous resistance level, can intervene upon pressure K-line appearing);
Targets: First target 3180 (current fluctuation center), second target 3140 (support near lower track turning into resistance);
Stop loss: 3290 (breaking above this level is seen as the start of a short-term rebound, decisively exit to minimize loss).
📈 Future Outlook
This round of ETH adjustment is a technical correction driven by sentiment and liquidity, rather than a trend reversal, so there is no need to be overly bearish;
Key range: 3150-3100 is the last defense line for bulls, as long as this range is not effectively broken, it still belongs to a correction repair within a strong bullish trend;
Short-term trend: expected to oscillate in the 3150-3250 range to build a base, waiting for the market to re-accumulate long and short momentum, during which an oscillation strategy should be adopted to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses;
Operation mantra: stabilize at 3150 and look for rebounds, staggered layout of long positions; if broken, guard against a second dip, follow the trend with short positions, and strictly control position size throughout.
ETH has entered a technical repair period after the sharp drop, and the current level is not suitable for blindly panicking and cutting losses or bottom-fishing. Patience is required to wait for the range to clarify, operating according to technical signals and key support and resistance to seize the initiative in the washout market!

#ETH走势分析 ETH Short-term Deep Adjustment: Lower Support Becomes Key Watershed
Current ETH price anchored around 3200, intraday drop of -3.75% —— After a surge to 3446 last night, there was a significant pullback, and today’s daytime trading continues to be under pressure, with a minimum drop to 3190. The short-term officially enters a rapid adjustment cycle, with significant volatility increase, and the overall structure shifts from the previous 'strong rebound phase' to 'short-term correction', with bullish momentum clearly weakening.

Short-term Estimate [Personal Opinion, For Reference Only]
Bullish (leaning towards rebound speculation, strictly control risk)
Entry Point: 3160–3180 range (enter after stabilization signal appears near lower support)
Target: 3230–3260 (take profits in batches, do not hold onto positions)
Stop Loss: 3140 (exit immediately if effectively breaks down, avoid holding positions)
Bearish (relying on resistance, follow the trend)
Entry Point: 3245–3265 range (enter after encountering resistance on a rebound)
Target: 3180–3140 (look for support below, take profits when favorable)
Stop Loss: 3280 (decisively stop loss if breaking through resistance, avoid trend reversal risk)
Market Outlook
After consecutive surges, ETH faces a volume adjustment, and the short-term trend will primarily follow the main melody of 'decline - repair - reconfirm'. The support zone of 3190–3200 is the current core watershed of the bulls and bears: if maintained, a rebound is expected, if lost, bearishness continues. It is recommended to mainly observe in operations, prioritize shorting on rebounds, and consider low-level buying only for short-term speculation, strictly control positions and stop losses, avoid chasing highs and killing lows, and avoid bottom fishing too early.

#加密市场反弹 ETH Midday Analysis｜The high-level volatility does not change the bullish pattern, focusing on low long positions and defending high shorts!
Current ETH price is around 3328, slightly rising 0.36% during the day. Today's trend first rises and then falls, strongly pulling up to a high of 3397 in the morning before quickly retreating, currently oscillating in the range of 3310-3330, overall in a strong adjustment period after the main rising wave, bullish sentiment still dominates, but short-term momentum has somewhat converged.
Core View Summary
ETH is currently in a "trend not broken, short-term overheating" oscillation phase, adhering to the trend-following approach of 'low long positions dominate, high short positions defend', with 3300 as the current core watershed:
If the support at 3300-3310 stabilizes, after oscillation and adjustment, it is highly likely to continue the main rising wave and once again challenge the high of 3400 +;
If it breaks below the support of 3300, the short-term will enter a repair stage, with a focus on the downwards support in the range of 3230-3250.
The foundation of the bullish trend has not changed, the oscillation is for better upward attacks! Patiently wait for clear signals, do not chase highs, do not bottom fish, strictly implement position management and stop-loss discipline, and seize the opportunity in phases following the trend ～

【The Federal Reserve's big move is imminent, is the crypto market facing a life-and-death situation?】#美联储FOMC会议 #美联储重启降息步伐
Tomorrow, the world holds its breath for the FOMC meeting's thunderous announcement —— the latest signals point to an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut, with the market pricing probability soaring to 89.4%, almost a done deal! This is not about the suspense of “whether to cut rates,” but a clear warning that a tsunami of liquidity is about to sweep in.
History does not lie: In the last round of rate cuts, Bitcoin surged over 800% from its low; within 72 hours before and after the interest rate decision, mainstream coins' volatility must exceed 300%. Now that the liquidity floodgates are set to open, will the crypto market replicate an epic rally?
But this time, the chess game is more complex: repeated inflation, a tug of war over employment data, and the political pressure of an election year are hitting together. Is the Federal Reserve's “50 basis points” a lifesaver or just a final stimulant? Behind the 89.4% consensus expectation, could there be a deep pit hiding the idea that “good news is already priced in”?
Wall Street has already quietly positioned itself, and the leverage battlefield is on the brink of a long-short duel ——✅ Do you believe this is a rapid return of the bull market, or a trap for the unwary?✅ If the 50 basis points come to fruition, which coin will you heavily invest in first?✅ Those who said “the bear market is not over” last month, are they secretly placing orders at this moment?
Show your judgment in the comments section, the big test for the crypto market is here!

Binance is making big moves! Did you receive it? Do you agree and want to continue? This adjustment should have no significant impact on us! The cryptocurrency industry is going to become more regulated! I wonder if this adjustment will affect our usage habits? What does everyone think?

Is the big one coming? #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析
Major events in the crypto world! The exchange's ETH is about to be bought out, a historic signal is coming! Bomb-level data shows that the Ethereum inventory on exchanges has dropped to its lowest point since 2015, and the 'live water' that could crash the market is being crazily drained. This is clearly the big whales and institutions withdrawing large amounts of ETH for staking, re-staking, or long-term locking.
Meanwhile, Wall Street has also brought heavy news. Bank of America announced that starting in 2026, wealth advisors can directly recommend Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to clients, creating a compliant entry channel for traditional financial funds. $SOL $BNB $AT
On the supply side, ETH inventory hits a new low, while on the demand side, top financial institutions are paving the way for traditional funds to enter. With supply and demand out of balance, a classic scenario is about to unfold. When Bank of America clients enter with real money, what price will ETH reach? Leave your target price in the comments. Follow me to avoid pitfalls and catch market trends!

Federal Reserve decision + unemployment rate dual data window, has the bear really come? #Need to judge calmly
The bear market atmosphere is intensifying, but panic doesn't solve problems; the core data window has arrived, and rationality is more crucial!
Two authoritative data points are clear: Polymarket shows a 66% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December, corresponding to a total market trading volume of $119 million; CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" concurrently gives a 63.8% probability of maintaining rates, with a 36.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes published at three o'clock today still show a stalemate in the direction of interest rates, causing the market to continue to hit new lows. Meanwhile, tonight at 9:30, the unemployment rate data, as a key reference for economic fundamentals, may become another catalyst for market volatility.
Current market sentiment is bearish, but data often comes with expectation digestion. Rather than getting caught up in "can we withstand it," it's better to focus on the policy logic and economic trends behind the data, and reasonably adjust positions and strategies.
Is everyone still holding firm or have they adjusted their strategies? Come to the comments section to share your views! #加密市场回调 #美联储暂停降息

Is the bull market still on? The positions of the whales give key signals
The market has long been divided into two camps: one side believes the bull market has ended, and the bear market has begun, with this voice becoming increasingly loud amid panic; the other side firmly believes that the bull market remains unchanged, and that the current situation is merely a phase of significant adjustment, with hopes of reaching new historical highs within the next six months to a year. Which possibility is greater? The core answer lies in the data of the whales' positions.
Key Data: Whales' Positions Show Counter-Trend Movements
Since the decline from the historical high, prices have continued to fall, but the total positions of whales have not decreased accordingly; instead, they have risen against the trend. This is in stark contrast to past bear market patterns: historically, in each bear market, the positions of whales would decrease as prices fell, stabilizing only after the market reached a relative bottom and entered the accumulation zone. However, in this round of decline, the whales' abnormal behavior of 'buying more as prices drop' has become a core variable in assessing the nature of the market.
Future Observation: Two Key Verification Signals
To determine whether the bull market continues, there is no need to get tangled up in the present; just focus on two core changes:
If after the price stops falling and stabilizes, the whales' positions decline or even fall below previous lows, then the probability of a bear market opening will significantly increase;
If during a price increase, the whales' positions continue to rise and break through previous highs, then the logic of the bull market continuation will be strengthened, and the current adjustment is just a halftime break;
If the price continues to fall (even down to the 70,000 range), but the whales' positions continue to climb, this is more likely a deep washout, and the possibility of quickly reaching new historical highs also exists.
Market panic can easily obscure the truth, but the funding movements of the whales often approach the essence of the market. Moving forward, simply tracking the relationship between positions and prices will naturally clarify the answer. #BTC #ETH