Bitcoin’s Binary CDD reveals a notable behavioral shift among long-term, smart-money holders. The three upward spikes you marked on the chart clearly align with cycle highs, suggesting that experienced holders chose to quietly offload coins into strength while retail participation was accelerating. Each spike coincided with a local or macro top, confirming that dormant supply was being reactivated at premium prices.
This pattern indicates that profit-taking from long-term holders began well before the market sold off, a classic hallmark of distribution phases.
At the same time, short-term holders have been capitulating aggressively. SOPR metrics show that STHs have spent weeks selling at losses, producing a deep capitulation band below 1.0. This combination—smart-money distribution at the top and reactive selling at the bottom—typically marks the later stages of a correction, not the early ones.
Although this does not imply an immediate reversal, the cleansing of weak hands and the absorption seen around the lower accumulation zone suggest that the market is transitioning into a potential accumulation phase. Sustained defense of the $80K–$83K realized-demand area would reinforce this scenario. A clean breakdown below that region, however, would signal that the final washout has not yet completed.
Written by ShayanMarkets
