The crypto market is back at a critical point. After a major rally throughout the first half of 2025 pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high of $125,000 and altcoins surged by hundreds of percent, the market is now facing strong pressure. BTC has fallen back to the $107,000 area and even tested $80,000, raising concerns: has the bull run of 2025 come to an end?
However, the context of 2025 is not the same as previous cycles. For the first time in crypto history, institutional adoption and global regulatory infrastructure are in a mature phase — creating the opportunity that this bull run does not have to follow the classic pattern of blow-off top followed by a long bearish phase, but can continue in a more structured form.
This article delves deeply into the current market conditions, reasons for the price decline, and how institutional flows can extend the bull run to 2026.
What is Happening in the Market? Why is Bitcoin Correcting?
After touching ATH at $125,000, Bitcoin faced significant selling pressure. Several factors triggered the correction:
1. Geopolitical Tensions: Trump vs Xi
Uncertainty between Donald Trump's economic policies and China's backlash has pressured the global market. Risk-off sentiment has caused liquidity to flow out of volatile assets — including crypto.
2. Liquidity is 'Below' and Utilized by Whales
On-chain data shows that liquidation liquidity pools are concentrated at lower levels ($108k → $102k). Market makers use this area to 'sweep' liquidity before building new positions.
This is a classic pattern in Bitcoin movement: takedown liquidity before continuing the major trend.
3. Excessive FOMO
In the last two months, the number of new BTC addresses has reached an all-time high. Many retail investors entered at the peak of post-halving euphoria. When BTC fell below $110k, panic selling intensified the correction.
Has the Bull Run Ended? Not Necessarily
Although the correction looks sharp, most macro and on-chain indicators show that the bull run of 2025 has not ended, but is entering a re-accumulation phase.
Here are the reasons:
1. Realized Price & MVRV Ratio are Still in the Bullish Zone
Bitcoin still remains well above the realized price, a sign that the bull market structure is still strong.
MVRV Ratio has not yet entered the extreme overvaluation zone like in 2017 or 2021.
2. Exchange Reserves Decrease
The number of BTC on exchanges has reached a 5-year low. This means investors prefer to hold rather than sell.
3. Miners Are Not Over-Selling
After the 2024 halving, operational costs increased — but miners are showing accumulation patterns, not capitulation.
4. Funding Rate is Normal
Excessive leverage has been wiped out during the correction, cleaning the market and setting the stage for the next rally.
Institutional Adoption: Key Factor for Extending the Bull Run
Unlike previous bull cycles, the 2025 cycle has a 'major savior': institutional demand that has not slowed down at all.
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are Still Receiving Massive Inflows
Spot-based BTC ETFs in the US, South Korea, and Brazil are still recording inflows of billions of dollars.
Ethereum ETFs have passed regulation in Europe and Singapore, opening the door for global financial institutions.
Institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Standard Chartered are now actively managing crypto products for their clients.
As long as ETF inflows remain positive, the bull run still has 'fuel'.
2. Asset Tokenization (RWA) Enters Real Adoption Phase
Large banks have already tokenized:
treasury bonds,
real estate,
commercial loans,
even carbon credits.
RWA is now the biggest narrative after AI, and is projected to reach $10 trillion in tokenized assets by 2030.
Blockchains like Solana, Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, and — recently — Bitcoin through LBTC, are participating in this major wave.
3. Fortune 500 Companies Enter Web3
2025 will be the year when the adoption of large companies significantly increases:
Starbucks, Grab, and Adidas are expanding blockchain-based loyalty programs.
Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI are involved in AI + blockchain integration.
Logistics companies like Maersk and DHL are using blockchain for supply chains.
The more companies adopt crypto rails, the greater the wave of capital entering.
4. Sovereign Wealth Funds Start Entering Crypto
Several countries in Asia and the Middle East are using crypto as asset diversification.
SWF with hundreds of billions of dollars now holds Bitcoin and ETH in their long-term portfolios.
5. Stablecoin Regulation Successfully Drives New Capital
Stablecoin regulations (GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, Singapore PS Act) provide certainty for global institutions.
The result:
Stablecoin supply has risen back to > $200 billion,
global liquidity has increased,
crypto trading has become more active and stable.
Possible Scenarios 3–6 Months Ahead
🟡 Scenario 1: Bull Run Continues (Likely)
BTC rebounds back to >$115k
ETH moves towards $6,500
Altcoin season phase 2 begins
Supported by ETF inflows and institutional narratives.
🔴 Scenario 2: Long Consolidation
BTC moves sideways between $80k–$98k until early 2026.
Catalysts that could trigger this phase:
US government shutdown,
large sell-offs from miners,
tighter interest rate policies.
⚫ Scenario 3: Deeper Pullback Correction
If there is a major geopolitical escalation, BTC could test the major liquidity zone at $75K–$80K, but the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Conclusion: The Bull Run is Not Over — Just Taking a Break
Although Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction from ATH $125k to $107k, on-chain analysis, liquidity, and macro factors suggest that this is not the end of the cycle, but rather a phase of health for the market.
A surge in institutional adoption, clearer regulations, and global integration between traditional finance & blockchain provide strong evidence that the bull run of 2025 is likely to continue into 2026.
The bull run is not dead — it's just catching its breath.
Disclaimer
This article aims for education and is not investment advice. Trading crypto assets is high-risk and can result in capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and invest according to your personal risk tolerance.
