After going through a period of turmoil in mid-2025 — starting from a sharp correction of BTC to the $101,000 area, leveraged liquidation, to geopolitical concerns — a big question now arises among global investors:
Can Bitcoin break $100,000 again before entering 2026?
And what are the signals from prediction markets, global liquidity, and macro indicators supporting this rally?
Although Bitcoin prices moved sideways in the $105,000–$110,000 area, many indicators suggest that BTC is still in mid-cycle consolidation, not the end of the bull run. Prediction markets like Polymarket even indicate increasing recovery probabilities.
Here is the complete analysis — why Bitcoin can still rise back towards $100K before 2026, and five main reasons why investor sentiment is starting to turn bullish.
Market Conditions 2025: Why is BTC Under Pressure?
To assess recovery opportunities, we need to understand several factors holding back BTC prices:
1. Geopolitical Tensions: Trump vs Xi, US–China
Global political uncertainty drives investors to hold back on risk, pressuring the crypto market.
2. Government Shutdown in the US
Prolonged shutdowns make the market lose economic visibility.
3. Thin Market Liquidity
Order books thin after a wave of leveraged liquidation, triggering sharp volatility.
4. Negative Funding Rate & Leverage Capitulation
Many longs were forced to close, creating additional pressure on prices.
However, this condition is common in mid-bull cycles and often becomes the next accumulation point.
What Do Prediction Markets Say?
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi indicate:
The contract 'BTC above $100K before January 1, 2026' still has a 60–67% probability
Sentiment remains bullish for targets of $115K–$120K in early 2026
Professional investors see strong recovery opportunities if the Fed becomes dovish
Prediction markets are not guarantees, but they are the most objective sentiment indicators in the market.
5 Reasons Why Bitcoin Could Still Break $100K Before 2026
1. Strengthening Fed Rate Cut Opportunity — Liquidity Potentially Rising
The biggest catalyst for bitcoin is the direction of The Fed's policy.
Latest data shows:
70% probability of at least one rate cut by the end of 2025
40% probability of two rate cuts if inflation drops faster
Rate cut = bullish for crypto
Because:
Cost of borrowing decreases
Liquidity is increasing
ETF demand typically spikes
Historically, crypto bull runs follow periods of monetary easing.
2. Bitcoin ETF Remains a Liquidity Magnet
Even though prices drop, ETFs continue to record:
Stable inflow from pension funds
Accumulation from wealth managers
Interest from sovereign funds in the Middle East & Asia
ETFs create passive and long-term demand — not speculative demand.
As long as ETFs continue to buy, the path to $100K remains wide open.
3. BTC Supply on Exchanges Drops to 6-Year Low
On-chain data shows:
BTC on exchanges down < 7% total supply
Indicating long-term investors locking in assets
Sell pressure is very low
When demand rises and supply shrinks, prices often spike vertically.
Supply shocks like this have driven big rallies in the past.
4. Whales and Institutions Start Accumulating Again
After the correction to the $101K area, whale wallets (100–10,000 BTC) began to add positions.
Some accumulation signals:
Outflow from exchanges increases
Cold wallet inflow rises
Open interest futures start to recover
Whales typically buy when market fear is high, not during euphoria.
This signal indicates early phase accumulation.
5. Bull Run Cycle is Not Over — Still Mid-cycle
Cycle indicators show that the bull run has not yet reached its peak:
MVRV has not yet reached euphoria zone
Puell Multiple remains moderate
Hashrate is nearly at ATH
New addressescontinue to increase
🟢 Bullish Scenario (60%)
If the Fed cuts rates and geopolitical tensions ease:
→ BTC target: $115K–$135K
→ $100K is very likely to be broken again
🟡 Neutral Scenario (30%)
Fed postpones rate cut but no major escalation:
→ BTC range: $95K–$115K
→ The chance of breaking $100K remains high
🔴 Bearish Scenario (10%)
Prolonged shutdown + worsening geopolitics:
→ BTC returns to $80K–$95K
However, the probability is low.
Conclusion: The Opportunity for Bitcoin to Break $100K Before 2026 is Still Very Strong
Despite the correction from ATH $125K, Bitcoin's fundamental structure remains healthy.
With:
Rate cut opportunities,
Consistent ETF inflow,
Supply thins, and
Whales are accumulating again,
Bitcoin still has a great chance to break back above $100K before 2026.
The bull cycle is not over — just taking a pause.
