After reaching an all-time high of $125,000 in the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin faced a sharp correction down to the $101,000 area, before stabilizing again in the range of $107,000–$110,000. This situation raises a big question that is now the focus of global investors:
Can Bitcoin recover before the end of 2025?
And does BTC still have a chance to break $130,000 before the year ends?
With macro conditions starting to improve, expectations of an increasingly dovish Fed policy, and the potential end of the US government shutdown, the chances of Bitcoin's recovery are actually widening.
Here is the complete analysis — why Bitcoin still has a path to recovery, and what factors could drive the price to $130,000 before the year's end.
Why Did Bitcoin Correct? Market Summary 2025
Before discussing recovery opportunities, we need to understand the reasons Bitcoin fell from ATH:
1. Global Liquidity Tightening
US–China political tensions (Trump vs Xi) increase macro uncertainty, pushing institutional investors to withdraw liquidity from risky assets.
2. Leverage Liquidation at Lower Levels
Open interest reached record highs at $120k+, and when BTC started to weaken, chain liquidations created a cascade selling down to the $105k–$101k area.
3. Concerns about Government Shutdown in the US
Prolonged shutdown holds back market sentiment as it is seen as hampering economic activity, macro data, and regulatory processes.
However, all of this is not a sign of the end of the bull run — rather a healthy mid-cycle correction.
Can Bitcoin Recover? Some Key Signals Indicate 'Yes'
1. FOMC Is Now More Dovish — Rate Cut Opportunities Increase
Market odds indicate that the Fed is increasingly leaning towards:
1x–2x rate cut before the end of the year,
lowering yield pressure,
and increases global macro liquidity.
Whenever the Fed signals policy easing, crypto assets—especially Bitcoin—historically experience strong increases.
2. Government Shutdown Expected to End
If a budget deal is finally reached in Q4, the market will:
regaining clarity on fiscal policy,
seeing an increase in business activity,
and receives more stable economic data.
All of this increases investor risk appetite, including in crypto.
3. ETFs Still Record Positive Inflows
Although prices are down, Bitcoin ETFs are still receiving:
consistent buying from institutions,
contributions from pension funds,
and new allocations from wealth managers.
ETFs have now become the 'demand engine' that Bitcoin never had in previous cycles.
4. Supply on Exchanges Decreases
On-chain data shows BTC on exchanges is at its lowest point since 2018.
This means selling pressure is low, and BTC holders are getting stronger (long-term holders domination >70%).
5. Miners Are Not in Capitulation Phase
Hashrate remains near ATH.
This shows miners are not selling in large amounts — a characteristic that the risk of a large drop is over.
Target $130K: Realistic or Too Optimistic?
To determine whether $130K might be achievable, we need to look at several major indicators:
1. On-Chain Momentum — Still in Bullish Zone
Some data shows Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure:
MVRV is still in a healthy range
RHODL ratio has not entered extreme euphoria
Short-term holder SOPR approaches break-even, a sign of recovering sentiment
All of this indicates the bull run is not over.
2. Whale Accumulation Is Increasing Again
Post-correction, whale wallets (100–1,000 BTC) are adding positions aggressively.
They typically buy dips before the next major rally.
Whales rarely misread long-term macro trends.
3. Strengthening the Bitcoin Narrative: 'Digital Gold + Yield'
The BTC narrative in 2025 is stronger than the 2021 cycle:
Bitcoin is considered an inflation hedge asset,
ETFs create stable demand flows,
the emergence of BTC yield like LBTC attracts new investors,
All of this expands the investor base that is no longer merely speculative.
4. Q4 Season is Usually Bullish for Bitcoin
If looking at history:
Q4 2017 → BTC +230%
Q4 2020 → BTC +168%
Q4 2023 → BTC +57%
Q4 season often becomes a phase of bull run acceleration.
Bitcoin Price Scenario at the End of 2025
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Probability 55–60%)
Fed to make at least 1 rate cut
Government shutdown ends
ETF inflow stabilizes
Global liquidity increases
BTC Target → $125K – $138K
With a spike possibility reaching $140K if sentiment heats up.
🟡 Neutral Scenario (Probability 30%)
Prolonged shutdown
Fed delays rate cut
Market sideways awaiting new liquidity
BTC Target → $108K – $122K
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Probability 10–15%)
Geopolitical conflicts increase
No rate cut
ETFs experience outflows
BTC Target → $88K – $95K
However, this extreme bearish scenario is less supported by current data.
Conclusion: Recovery Opportunities Are Still High — Target $130K Is Still Achievable
Although the market is in a sharp correction phase, the majority of macro and on-chain indicators show:
bull cycle is not over,
large structures are still bullish,
and Bitcoin has room to recover.
With a combination of rate cut opportunities, the end of the government shutdown, and ETF strength, Bitcoin could still reach $125K again, and even touch $130K before the end of 2025.
The bull run is not dead — it is merely entering a natural consolidation phase before the next potential rally.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Crypto trading involves high risks. Do your own research (DYOR) and invest only according to your ability.