Federal Reserve Policy Shift: On November 21, Federal Reserve officials expressed conflicting views, with Williams indicating a potential interest rate cut, raising the likelihood of a reduction in December to 60%. However, Logan and others remained cautious, increasing uncertainty in market expectations.
Global Market Crash: On November 21, a managed decline was observed, with the NASDAQ dropping nearly 5%, and Bitcoin falling below $86,000, resulting in $930 million in liquidations within 24 hours. The Federal Reserve's tough stance shattered expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to significant selling in risk assets.
ETF Capital Outflow: The Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $903 million in a single day, reaching the second highest level in history, which reduced market confidence. Polymarket predicts a 58% chance of Bitcoin falling to $80,000 in November.
Mining Pressure: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is competing for electricity resources, putting survival pressure on mining companies, with future values shifting towards power infrastructure.
Market Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin has formed a golden cross resonance on the four-hour chart, leading to a market increase. It is currently near the pressure level on the upper Bollinger Band for four hours, with hourly lows rising, indicating an uptrend. With news influences, the market is recovering in small steps. However, on daily and weekly levels, it is still in a bearish trend, with the daily line significantly falling from the lifeline, and the daily MACD also forming a bottom below the zero axis.
Bitcoin's volatility range for today:
Support Levels: Around 85,000, around 84,300, around 83,500.
Resistance Levels: Around 88,000, around 88,800.
Ethereum's volatility range for today:
Support Levels: Around 2,750, around 2,700, around 2,668.
Resistance Levels: Around 2,860, around 2,970.
Although the market has formed a rebound on the four-hour chart, it is heavily influenced by news. The market is speculating on the topic of interest rate cuts; if reduction expectations decrease, the market will fall again. If expectations increase, there will be a rise, but the influence of news is temporary and will not last. The daily line is still in a bearish trend; for short-term operations, remember to participate with small positions and manage take profit and stop loss strictly.
