#山寨季何时到来？
November 25 Analysis of the Current Situation of Shanzhai and the Three Most Promising Main Lines for the Future:
Shanzhai: In the past month, Shanzhai has mainly been suppressed by macro fears, but the greatest pressure on the macro front has now eased, though the inflow of institutional funds will take time. Currently, Shanzhai is in a stage of 'seriously undervalued'—their prices reflect macro fears, but their intrinsic value and future institutional channels point to a highly certain future. Under the support of favorable macro conditions in the future, our investment philosophy shifts from 'defensive' accumulation to 'strategic allocation using bottom building.' Patience is the greatest profit; favorable macro conditions may trigger a wave of oversold rebounds, but do not rush to chase the rise. Utilize the market's panic pullbacks and low-volume consolidation for strategic, phased accumulation.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased market risk appetite, and liquidity will gradually warm up. ONDO (supply side) and MKR (demand side) are the golden bridges connecting TradFi funds and may become the biggest beneficiaries of liquidity.
L2 Horizontal (ARB/OP) is a necessity for ETH expansion; LSD Horizontal (LDO) is the direct beneficiary of ETH's scarcity and capital efficiency improvement. Its fundamentals are deeply tied to ETH value. Once Ethereum ends this round of decline and completes bottom building, they will soar with the wind.
Regulatory relaxation, channels opened: XRP/DOGE have broken through compliance boundaries, gaining legal status for institutions, and may obtain the greatest valuation reconstruction opportunity in the future.
Macro noise has been eliminated; now is the stage for the market to 'repay debts.' We should strengthen our confidence, extend our vision, and focus on the aforementioned 'three main lines' for strategic layout. Missing the $80,000 stop-loss signal is not regrettable, but missing the bottom accumulation period brought by the macro reversal is the greatest loss.
