飞哥-破晓黎明

【Fei Jia Jun Actual Combat Command Center】 Officially Open! Rebate!!!!
Market fluctuations are ever-changing; only through deep understanding and practical experience can one navigate through the cycles of volatility.
Now, Brother Fei is offering free access, inviting like-minded traders to join the 【Brother Fei's Actual Combat Command Center】
👨‍🏫 Benefits in the group include:
1. Daily market review and strategy reference
2. Practical teaching and risk management
3. Sector logic breakdown and position thinking training
4. Brother Fei personally answers questions, leads the pace, and analyzes the market
🎯 Suitable for:
Investors who love trading and wish to systematically improve their practical skills;
Friends who want to shift from "copy trading mindset" to "independent judgment."

#加密市场反弹
November 28 Analysis of the Current Status of Altcoins and Asset Allocation Direction:

Altcoins: When the market sentiment shifts from 'panic' to 'tentative optimism,' altcoins will not advance uniformly but will enter a 'selective rotation': infrastructure and compliance-driven projects are prioritized for capital allocation; short-term events or unlocks remain the main disturbance factors. Cautious phased participation, focusing on risk management and unlock calendars, is the core discipline for participating in altcoins at this time. Against the backdrop of rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has short-term rebounded to 3.07 trillion, but there are still signs of withdrawal on a monthly basis, and funds have not fully returned to altcoins. The current round of capital inflow is mainly focused on BTC/ETH, and the proportion of capital in altcoins remains low, indicating a 'tentative' rather than 'comprehensive' entry. Particularly, some small-cap tokens will unlock this week, which may exert pressure on small-cap liquidity in the short term. In terms of core asset allocation, it is essential to adhere to the 'price-value' logic, selecting projects where the price is significantly below the value based on value fundamentals to withstand market scrutiny. The current short-term market perception is a misconception; long-term value assessment is the key. Recognize the foundational infrastructure of the ETH ecosystem (L2/LSD), the limits of RWA tokenization, institutional channels, and valuation reconstruction. The inherent value of these projects will ultimately see their prices return to their true value position.

#ETH走势分析
November 28 Ethereum Trend Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

ETH: Currently, Ethereum is in a weak rebound phase within a downtrend, having entered the 3100-3150 resistance zone, with a high probability of being blocked in the short term. The first condition for a trend reversal is to stabilize above 3260, and the second condition is to break through 3600. Otherwise, it will continue to taste the weak oscillation structure, with a pullback to 2860 before choosing a direction. The daily line yesterday closed with a small bearish candlestick after a decrease in volume, indicating selling pressure in the 3050-3100 area. The rebound strength is significantly weaker than BTC, which is a typical weak follow-up rebound. The short-term moving averages (MA7/14) have broken through but are not being questioned, while the mid-term moving average (MA30) at 3260 is a key resistance level. Before a significant breakout, Ethereum can only be considered a technical rebound after extreme overselling. The trading volume during the recent rebound process has shown a significant decrease, indicating that buying interest remains cautious, and the rebound height will be constrained by insufficient momentum. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross but is still well below the zero line, with the positive histogram gradually expanding, indicating some recovery in bullish sentiment, but not enough. In the subsequent market, pay close attention to whether the 3260 level can be broken with volume, and currently, focus on the resistance around 3100. If there is a pullback, first look at the defense around 2900, followed by the defense around 2750. The defense at this position should focus on buy signal layouts that do not break during the pullback! For intraday operations, pay close attention to the support at the 2990-2940 position for rebound opportunities, and the resistance at the 3050-3100 point.

#BTC走势分析
November 28 Bitcoin trend explanation and intraday analysis:

BTC: After experiencing a significant drop, Bitcoin has entered a weak rebound cycle. It is currently in the first resistance zone (92-94K), with a noticeable decrease in volume during the rebound and clear pressure from moving averages, still belonging to a technical repair within a downtrend. The short-term oscillation is weak, and a breakthrough of MA30 (around 96K) is needed in the medium term to potentially reverse the trend. The daily level closed yesterday with a small bullish candle with an upper shadow, indicating that the current rebound is starting to lose strength and faces resistance. The overall moving average system still shows a clear bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages (MA7/14) having been broken and beginning to turn upwards, showing signs of forming a golden cross. Short-term rebound sentiment is good, but medium-term moving averages (MA30-90) continue to press down, especially near MA30 (97500), which may become a key turning point for this round of rebound, and the corresponding selling pressure is also very strong. The trading volume during the sustained rebound with a small bullish candle clearly shows a decrease in volume; a decrease in volume during the rebound indicates weak buying funds and a lack of trend funds returning, making this rebound lack sustainability. It needs to increase in volume to break through higher resistance zones. The MACD shows a golden cross below the zero axis, a typical characteristic of a weak rebound. The positive value of the histogram is gradually expanding, indicating that the rebound is recovering, but under the shadow of panic sentiment, it can easily be altered. In the subsequent market, the rebound will first look at the 92-96 range, and the daily K-line corresponding to this range will mostly show a small bullish candle with an upper shadow. Once an upper shadow bearish candle appears, one should start to be cautious of a second test; of course, if there can be a strong breakthrough with volume above 97K, there may be an opportunity to sprint into the 103-108K range, but under the current environment, this probability is relatively low. The important defensive level below is around 89K; if this position is broken, it will again test 86 or even 83. If this position holds during a pullback, stabilizing the bottom pattern will be the healthy second test rebound market. For intraday operations, focus on the support around 90.5-89.5 for rebound opportunities, while the upper focus is on the resistance around 92-93K.

#美联储重启降息步伐
📉Interest rate cuts have basically been priced in ahead of time!!!
【CME: December rate cut probability rises to 86.9%】

This signal means:

Expectations for liquidity easing have further strengthened;

Continued positive impact on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH;

The sentiment and risk appetite in the high Beta altcoin sector may see further recovery.

#加密市场反弹 、
November 27th Analysis and Strategic Deployment of Altcoin Status:

Altcoin: The latest macro data has cleared external obstacles, paving the way for risk assets:
1. Rate cut expectations locked in (84.9%): The Federal Reserve's Beige Book confirms weak labor demand and declining retail sales. This perfectly aligns with the CME's 84.9% rate cut probability, indicating that there are no policy barriers for the Fed to take dovish actions.
2. Triple external risk relief: Geopolitical (peace agreements), trade difficulties (301 tariff restrictions extended), and inflation risks (economic weakness) have all been alleviated.
Our "three major strategic lines" have all received the highest level and most practical fundamental validation in the past 24 hours, entering a period of value realization.
1. ETH ecosystem infrastructure (L2/LSD): Vitalik's initiative to increase L1 Gas by 5 times, with structurally advantageous super benefits! Directly provides L1 throughput for the large-scale application explosion and data security of L2 (ARB, OP).
2. RWA tokenization limits: ONDO 100+ assets landing on the BNB chain/Binance wallet, accelerating practical implementation! The world's largest exchange provides the strongest traffic entrance and endorsement for RWA assets like ONDO.
A perfect dual bullish pattern is formed between macro and fundamentals. Always pay attention to the technical aspects of BTC/ETH, using mainstream as a directional mark, and focusing on currently popular strong altcoins as the main offensive direction, efficiently deploying funds into the core altcoins of the above three major strategic lines, completing strategic positioning after the bottom formation!

#ETH走势分析
November 27th Ethereum Trend Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

ETH: Currently, Ethereum is in a phase of rebound. Last Friday, it showed a stop-loss signal after a sharp drop, and on Saturday, a bottom doji candlestick pattern formed, followed by consecutive small bullish candles, indicating signs of short-term stabilization. The trading volume has not yet caught up with the price increase during the rebound, consistent with the inertia characteristics of a stop-loss rebound, rather than a trend reversal with increased volume. The short-term moving averages (MA7/14) have all broken through, and the moving averages are starting to converge, with potential golden cross signs emerging. The medium-term moving averages (MA30/90) are priced much higher than the current coin price, indicating that the overall medium-term trend remains bearish, especially with the upcoming pressure from the 30-day moving average, corresponding to the selling pressure formed by the previous consolidation range before breaking below 3000 points, corresponding to a price range of 3100-3200. The MACD indicator has formed a bottom double-line golden cross, with the histogram values increasing, indicating that the bearish momentum is weakening and bullish positions are initially entering. In the subsequent market trend, the short-term focus is on the selling pressure in the 3100-3200 range, while the later focus is on the selling pressure zone formed during the rebound to 3600 points at the beginning of the month. For intraday operations, key support is at the 3000-2950 position below, and key resistance is at the 3080-3130 position above.

#BTC走势分析
November 27 Bitcoin Trend Prediction and Intraday Analysis:

BTC: After a decline following a response, Bitcoin completed its first wave of bottoming out under the influence of macro-positive expectations. It is currently in a rebound phase, which is a correction within a downtrend. The medium-term trend remains bearish, facing strong resistance in the 92.5-94K range, with the reversal trend line at around 106K. The moving average system's short-term moving averages (MA7/14) have already broken through, with the 7-day moving average turning upward. Attention should be paid to its convergence with the 14-day moving average. The medium-term moving average MA30 has become the strongest resistance for the mid-term rebound, expected to reach the 96K level; during the recent rebound, the trading volume has not followed the increase in price, indicating that bullish funds have not yet entered strongly. There have been bottom-fishing activities, but no major funds have entered for a trend reversal, so the sustainability of the rebound remains to be evaluated; the MACD histogram has turned positive, with a bullish crossover formed, and a bottom divergence has occurred, but it is still deep below the 0 axis, indicating that a short-term rebound has been established, but the medium-term reversal has not been completed. In the subsequent market, if a weak rebound occurs, there will be multiple attempts to challenge the 92.5-94K range. If a lack of strength is demonstrated, leading to a daily-level high and then a pullback, preparations should be made for a second test; if the daily line continues to maintain a gentle increase in volume, then the focus will be on the 98 level. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the support defense at the 90-89K position below, and the resistance at the 92-93K position above.

#中美关税
🌏【US Extends Tariff Exemptions on China to 2026: Signs of Trade Easing】

The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced the extension of tariff exemptions related to the Section 301 investigation on China until November 10, 2026, two years later than originally planned. This move indicates a temporary easing of tensions in US-China trade, helping to stabilize supply chains and global risk sentiment.

💥Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market:

Increased Risk Appetite: Improved US-China relations typically benefit global risk assets, including BTC, ETH, and altcoins.

Decreased Dollar Pressure: An improved trade environment may weaken the safe-haven demand for the dollar, indirectly boosting cryptocurrency assets priced in dollars.

RWA and Cross-Border Finance Benefit: Stabilization in supply chains and international trade constitutes a structural benefit for RWA, on-chain settlement, and cross-border payment sectors.

Reduced Risk Sentiment: Previous market concerns over escalating trade friction have subsided, leading to a more favorable macro environment for the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, this is another macro positive that strengthens the bullish structure of global risk assets.

#初请失业金
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000, and also lower than the previous value of 220,000, indicating that the labor market remains resilient.

In the short term, the robustness of employment data may weaken the urgency for the Federal Reserve to make significant rate cuts, but the overall trend still points to a moderate slowdown.

#灰度基金
🚨【Grayscale Actions Continue! Zcash Trust Officially Submits S-3 to SEC】

This trust is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, primarily engaged in commodity contract brokerage and trading (SIC 6221).

This move indicates that ZEC may be moving towards a higher level of compliance, marking a significant advancement in the field of crypto privacy assets.

#以太坊坎昆升级
🚨【Vitalik Buterin's Nuclear Proposal: Ethereum's Future Block Gas Will Increase by 5 Times! Strongest Favorable News for L2 Ecosystem!】
💥Core Information and Strategic Interpretation:

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin announced today the core expansion strategy for the future L1:

Core Objective: To increase Ethereum's block Gas limit by 5 times (from the current 60M to a potential 300M).

Supporting Mechanism: At the same time, the Gas costs for operations with reduced processing efficiency (such as creating new storage, complex pre-compilations) will also increase by 5 times.

Upgrade Time: Related EIPs are being developed for the upcoming “Glamsterdam” or “H” upgrade.

【Decisive Impact on the Crypto Market and L2/LSD Sector】

Structural Favorable Conditions for L2 Ecosystem: The compatibility of L2 (such as ARB/OP) heavily relies on L1's data throughput capacity. The 5-fold capacity expansion of L1 will greatly enhance L2's data availability and security, reduce L2's operational costs, and directly accelerate the large-scale application explosion of L2!

Enhanced Fundamental Value of ETH: The improvement in L1 efficiency not only enhances user experience but also, through adjustments in Ethereum's Gas costs, ensures the long-term health and sustainability of the L1 network. This further strengthens ETH's position as a layer and core settlement asset.

Validation of Strategic Mainline: This news perfectly aligns with the “L2/LSD” (ARB, OP, LDO) strategic mainline we have emphasized. This is a signal from the highest level: the certainty of Ethereum ecosystem growth is at its highest!

🔥Summary by Feige: At a time when the macro environment (84.9% interest rate cuts) and geopolitical situation (peace agreements) are comprehensively warming, Vitalik's move serves as a strong boost for the ETH ecosystem. ARB, OP, and LDO, as the core benchmarks of L2/LSD, are the most direct and largest beneficiaries of this structural change!

👇Brothers, with dual favorable conditions from macro and fundamentals, do you think ETH can break through the strong resistance area of $3200 first, pushing the altcoin sector into a counterattack phase?

#RWA
🚨The horn of the RWA outbreak has sounded! Ondo's 100+ tokenized stock ETF has landed on the BNB Chain/Binance Wallet!

【Strategic Value and Sector Impact】

RWA further enters the practical stage: this is no longer a concept or trade, but 100 types of TradFi assets realized on-chain tokenization through ONDO. This greatly enhances the practicality and accessibility of RWA.

Global endorsement of partition: Binance utilizes its largest global ecosystem (BNB Chain and Binance Wallet) to distribute Ondo's products. This is the strongest endorsement for the RWA narrative and ONDO, driving centralized partitions that are accelerating the landing of RWA.

“Three Main Lines” Confirmed: This event directly validates the correctness of our emphasis on RWA (ONDO/MKR) as a strategic main line. RWA, as a bridge connecting external funds, has now received support from “infrastructure” and “the largest global traffic entrance.”

🔥 Summary by Feige: The macro environment is resolved, and the fundamentals are about to explode! As the Federal Reserve's Beige Book confirms employment weakness and interest rate cut expectations are locked in, the cooperation between Ondo and Binance has focused on RWA, and a massive influx of institutional and retail funds is about to arrive. This is a key signal for ONDO's shift from “value depression” to “value realization”!

👇Brothers, do you think ONDO's large-scale landing on the BNB chain will trigger competitors in L2 (such as ARB/OP) to accelerate their layout of RWA assets?

#美联储何时降息？
🚨【Federal Reserve Beige Book: Employment Weakening + Demand Weak in Half of the Regions, December Rate Cut Expectations Rise to 84.9%!】

💥Key Conclusion: Macroeconomic Shift Towards Dovish, Crypto Welcomes Certainty Boost.

The latest Beige Book shows:

Employment numbers "are about to decline," and the labor market is clearly weakening;

Demand is weak in half of the regions, and businesses generally feel the pressure.

This forms a triple whammy with the previous plunge in consumer confidence + weakening retail sales, indicating that the two core indicators of the Federal Reserve (inflation and employment) are both trending downward, and December rate cut expectations are rising again.

#山寨季何时到来？
November 26 Market Opportunities and Strategy Sharing:

Current altcoins have entered a period of value reassessment from their "darkest moment". A short-term rebound has been observed, and opportunities for capture exist through the recent pullbacks that do not break. This is suitable for short-term operations.
In the macro environment, expectations for interest rate cuts have sharply increased, geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, and institutional channels have been confirmed, with some altcoins showing rebound opportunities that have long-term valuation potential.
RWA tokenization liquidity has increased, and ONDO/MKR can be focused on;
ETH ecosystem infrastructure is deeply tied to ETH's value (scarcity/staking rate) and is the core of the future L2 explosion, worth paying attention to ARB/OP/LDO;
In terms of institutional channels and valuation reconstruction, breaking through regulation and obtaining legal identity for institutions provides the greatest potential for valuation repair and reconstruction, with XRP/DOGE being a focus;
The short-term rebound may not have a large space, and the operation is highly demanding, with very high requirements for buying points. The better the buying point, the smaller the defensive space, and thus the lower the risk. At the same time, one must possess keen insight to make timely profit-taking when mainstream rebounds lose momentum, in order to lock in profits!

#ETH走势分析
November 26th Ethereum Trend Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

ETH: Currently, Ethereum is in the corrective rebound phase after the first wave of stopping the decline, with four consecutive bullish candles, but the trading volume is significantly insufficient. At the same time, the candlestick body is relatively small, belonging to a structural repair of "weak rebound, strong pressure," and the trend has not yet reversed. The short-term moving average MA7 has been broken and has narrowed, but the medium-term moving averages (MA14/30/90) all maintain a downward divergence, indicating that the short-term market is rebounding while the medium-term maintains a bearish trend. Currently, the MA14 (2980) moving average is pressing down on the price rebound, and this position corresponds to the defensive line that was repeatedly tested in the middle of the month, possessing certain selling pressure. The trading volume during the rebound is noticeably low, a typical weak rebound + funds on the sidelines, with the rebound relying solely on short-term trading and the retail investors' power of buying at low prices. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and the bars have turned positive, representing the initial shape of a rebound after an oversold condition. In the subsequent market, focus on the strong resistance at the 3120 level in the next 1-3 days, and pay attention to the defensive line at the 2750 level during pullbacks, waiting for the market to show a breakout signal with increased volume. For intraday operations, focus on the support at the 2900-2850 position for rebound opportunities, and pay attention to the pressure at the 2950-3000 point position above.

#BTC走势分析
November 26 Bitcoin trend explanation and intraday analysis:

BTC: Currently, BTC has completed a phase of stopping the decline, but has not yet emerged from the trend reversal. It formed a clear long lower shadow 'hammer' line at 80600 USD, and the subsequent rebounds have all resulted in short small bullish candles with reduced volume, indicating weak upward momentum. The current price is stuck in the 87-88 range, which is the battleground of bulls and bears from the previous breakdown, and is clearly suppressed in the current weak rebound, so overall it is in a stage of rebound within a structural downtrend, and the trend has not reversed. The short-term moving average system MA7 has been broken, but it still needs time to turn upward; the medium-term moving averages (MA14/30/90) are all maintaining a downward diverging bearish arrangement, especially the monthly line around 100K, which will become an important threshold for Bitcoin's rebound, and it is also the standard for Bitcoin to resume its bullish trend. The trading volume shows a rebound with reduced volume, and no signs of bullish breakout with increased volume have been observed, which is a typical 'bearish exhaustion + bullish hesitation' rebound, not a reversal driven by main forces. The MACD indicator's two lines are deeply positioned below the 0 axis, indicating a medium-term bearish trend; however, in recent days the two lines have been converging, entering a rebound repair phase; the negative value of the histogram is gradually shortening, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum; overall, under the medium-term bearish trend, a phased repair rebound has occurred. For the upcoming market, in the next 1-3 days, it is expected to slightly retrace around 85 without breaking, and continue to attack the 89-92 range; if a significant macro favorable news appears, and there is an external increase resonance, there might be a chance to push up to 95 or even attempt to touch around 100K. Currently, the volume is too low, making it a small probability. In intraday operations, pay close attention to the support at 86.8-85.5 to look for rebound opportunities, and focus on the resistance at 88.8-89.8 above.

#山寨季何时到来？
November 25 Analysis of the Current Situation of Shanzhai and the Three Most Promising Main Lines for the Future:

Shanzhai: In the past month, Shanzhai has mainly been suppressed by macro fears, but the greatest pressure on the macro front has now eased, though the inflow of institutional funds will take time. Currently, Shanzhai is in a stage of 'seriously undervalued'—their prices reflect macro fears, but their intrinsic value and future institutional channels point to a highly certain future. Under the support of favorable macro conditions in the future, our investment philosophy shifts from 'defensive' accumulation to 'strategic allocation using bottom building.' Patience is the greatest profit; favorable macro conditions may trigger a wave of oversold rebounds, but do not rush to chase the rise. Utilize the market's panic pullbacks and low-volume consolidation for strategic, phased accumulation.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased market risk appetite, and liquidity will gradually warm up. ONDO (supply side) and MKR (demand side) are the golden bridges connecting TradFi funds and may become the biggest beneficiaries of liquidity.
L2 Horizontal (ARB/OP) is a necessity for ETH expansion; LSD Horizontal (LDO) is the direct beneficiary of ETH's scarcity and capital efficiency improvement. Its fundamentals are deeply tied to ETH value. Once Ethereum ends this round of decline and completes bottom building, they will soar with the wind.
Regulatory relaxation, channels opened: XRP/DOGE have broken through compliance boundaries, gaining legal status for institutions, and may obtain the greatest valuation reconstruction opportunity in the future.
Macro noise has been eliminated; now is the stage for the market to 'repay debts.' We should strengthen our confidence, extend our vision, and focus on the aforementioned 'three main lines' for strategic layout. Missing the $80,000 stop-loss signal is not regrettable, but missing the bottom accumulation period brought by the macro reversal is the greatest loss.

#ETH走势分析
November 25th Ethereum Trend Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

ETH: This round of Ethereum has fallen from a high of 4956, with a maximum drop of 47%, nearly halving. The K-line shows a 'weak rebound after breaking down', characterized by: each round of rebound struggles to return to the key moving averages; significant selling pressure above; the downward trend line continues to exert pressure. This indicates that Ethereum's medium-term trend has not yet reversed and is currently in a rebound repair phase, rather than a true bottoming rebound. A significant deep adjustment can only lead to a new upward trend through a long bottoming process. During the bottoming process, the height of rebounds is limited, and their duration is short, often testing the holding costs near the densely traded area below. Yesterday, a moderate increase in volume closed with a bullish K-line, and the coin price broke through the short-term moving average MA7, but has not yet disrupted the bearish arrangement of moving averages. A volume contraction adjustment after the rebound is needed to reverse the downward extension of the moving averages, indicating that the current short-term rebound of Ethereum is a repair rather than a trend reversal. A volume-contracted rebound indicates that the main players have not yet started to lift the market, and outside funds are on the sidelines. The MACD indicator shows a golden cross below the zero line, and the histogram has begun to turn positive, indicating a reduction in downward momentum, providing conditions for a short-term rebound, while the medium-term outlook remains weak, and a bottom must be established for the long-term. In the subsequent market, first focus on the resistance at the 3000 round number, while the 3000-3200 range has certain selling pressure, which will suppress the short-term rebound. A test of the 2800-2700 point range without breaking is an opportunity for short-term accumulation. For intraday operations, focus on the resistance at the 2950-3000 point position above, and pay close attention to the support at the 2870-2830 position below for rebound opportunities.

#BTC走势分析
November 25 Bitcoin trend explanation and intraday analysis:

BTC: On Friday, there was a massive drop followed by a rebound, then it formed a small upward candlestick with reduced volume, indicating that there are currently buyers supporting the price, and the strength of the bears is weakening, which is a typical weak rebound pattern under bearish pressure. The daily line closed with a small upward candlestick yesterday, standing above the short-term moving average MA7. If it can maintain a stable state in the next two days, the MA7 moving average will gradually start to turn upwards, indicating a bullish accumulation process, which lays the foundation for a push towards 100,000. The trading volume has not yet increased during the rebound in the past two days; the bulls are in the initial intervention stage, belonging to the stabilization and accumulation phase, and have not yet entered the counterattack phase. The MACD indicator, after a deep dive of the fast line, has started to turn and converge, with the negative value of the histogram gradually shortening, expecting to turn positive, forming a bottom divergence with the price, technically entering a position of 'bearish momentum exhausted, waiting for reversal.' In the subsequent market, if the rebound near 90K does not break down, and the technical indicators follow to form a golden cross, it is expected to challenge the strong resistance around 95K, which will form a short-cycle technical repair market. The pullback range of 83-85 will be a short-term buying opportunity, with the core defense in the 80-78K range, which can serve as the last defensive line for the bulls. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the support level at 86.5-85.5K for rebound opportunities and the resistance level at 88.5-89.5K above.