#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:
The recent market is simply surviving on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; everyone is breathing a sigh of relief during this data vacuum period. U.S. stocks will only be open for half a day tonight, and it's unrealistic to expect any significant moves.
Naturally, Bitcoin is also taking the opportunity to inch up during this vacuum period; don't overthink it. The logic is quite simple: when it hit new highs earlier, the whales and super whales were cashing out like crazy, taking profits and running.
Then the Americans created the longest shutdown in history, and the interest rate cut expectations were dashed by a single remark from Powell. But what do the whales think? Prices were driven down, and these guys are sharper than anyone else; of course, they scoop up shares when they get cheaper.
So they started buying again; the reversal in sentiment alleviated panic, and expectations for interest rate cuts were once again seen as a lifeline. The new personnel being replaced is likely to be dovish. With this theme in play, the market would be wrong not to rebound.
Meanwhile, smaller whales see the bigger players buying and follow suit. Is this not a good thing? But don’t think the trend will immediately reverse; the market's wounds won’t heal just because of a few days of rebound; restoration takes time.
Returning to the market, Bitcoin's current shape is a typical volume contraction rebound. Each time it rises to a high, it sees an increase in volume and then drops, also breaking previous lows, clearly harvesting those who chase long positions.
If this time it doesn't do a second test and goes straight to around 98K to fulfill the rebound target, then during the retest, it’s likely not to be the healthy correction you mentioned. Instead, it may directly break below 80K, or even drop you to 75K.
But those who are trapped in shorts shouldn't panic; the overall trend is still downward. The market hasn’t suddenly turned into a philanthropist that will pull the price up just for you to break even. Next Monday is the last day of this month, and volatility is sure to be chaotic, but the pressure to move up will also increase.
Additionally, before breaking 92K, all support is in the range of 89.2 to 88.8K; taking a short-term long position here is still reasonable. But as long as it falls below 88K, this rebound will directly come to an end.
Moreover, the bulls have already rebounded for six days and have squeezed into the pressure zone. Now, what the bulls should do is gradually take profits and cash out, with the key point at 93.4K.
However, once this thing breaks through, the structure will reverse, and the bulls can continue to be arrogant. But honestly, given its current behavior, I lean more towards it not being able to push up, followed by a pullback to clear out positions.
Ethereum is completely watching Bitcoin's movements, with short-term support at 2850, 2749, and 2615, and resistance at 3170 and 3400. The ideal scenario would be to dip below 2850 for a second test, allowing for a stronger rebound.
But based on current momentum, it is likely to first touch 2950. If it doesn’t break, it will continue to push up against a small resistance at 3050, then the target can be seen at 3240. For Ethereum, I still say that if Bitcoin is going to die, it can’t escape either. But if Bitcoin holds firm, it can leverage its elasticity to push higher.
Advisor views the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 93000
First resistance level: 91800
Support level reference:
First support level: 90300
Second support level: 89500
Bitcoin is currently hovering around 91K, and sentiment is starting to lean towards a rebound; 90K has been reclaimed. The previous downtrend line has also been forcefully broken through, and the price is currently doing a retest near the breakout point.
Right now is a typical scenario of oscillation after a breakout; to continue moving upwards, the previous high must be overcome. We need to push the high point higher, otherwise, it will all be in vain.
The previously broken 90.3K has turned from resistance into a key support; this is currently the critical point of the market. Next, we need to see if the price can stabilize above the upward trend line and near the 20MA. If it can't stay above the 20MA, the probability of an upward movement will not be large.
The long-term moving average and candlesticks are currently spread apart; the healthiest trend would be for the candlesticks to consolidate while waiting for the moving average to catch up, as this is the most favorable rhythm for the bulls.
Once the first support at 90.3K is broken again, the trend will turn into a downward arc structure, which in layman's terms means a new round of adjustments will begin. The psychological barrier at 90K can serve as a stop-loss and risk-reward judgment area. If you're cautious, you can anticipate a pullback to around 89K.
The second resistance at 91.8K is a strong short-term resistance with an awkward position. It’s also a risk zone for a double top pattern; if it bumps into it again, you must check the trading volume; no volume means a false breakout. RSI is dropping from overbought; waiting for it to digest before challenging 91.8 to 93K will be more prudent.
11.28 Advisor's swing trade preset:
Long entry reference: 89000-89500 zone long, target: 90300-91200 (1-hour level MA20)
Short entry reference: 91500-91800 zone short, target: 90300-89500
If you sincerely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them instead of making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they show off long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they are 'always catching tops and bottoms,' but in reality, it's all just hindsight. A truly worthy blogger has a trading logic that is consistent, self-contained, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping on the bandwagon only when the market moves. Don't let exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots blind you; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
