#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:
Tomorrow morning, this lousy Federal Reserve meeting, a 25bp rate cut is basically just a routine matter. I haven't really paid much attention to that, but what I care about is whether the dot plot dares to soften and whether Powell dares to be lenient.
If these two continue to put on a serious face and act like eagles, tomorrow's market will be a slap that brings all the long positions back to reality. Following that, there will be the Japanese monetary policy meeting and a bunch of data ready to hit us.
The surge in the 2-year yield over the past week is the clearest signal that the market has not only priced in a rate cut ahead of time but has also pushed up the average interest rate, neutral rate, and risk premium for the next two years.
What to say? The American market simply does not believe that your interest rate cuts can save it, and even hints to the Federal Reserve that your rate cuts are useless. This is toxic for U.S. stocks and has a greater impact on BTC bulls.
Let’s also look at NVIDIA; it has been weak for the past two weeks. If the central position of the tech leader cannot rise, it shows that the heat of AI has truly started to drop. The market is draining, and funds are retreating; can you still expect the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts to help Bitcoin rise?
Back to the market, Bitcoin has only been supported from the bottom for 20 days. Yesterday’s false breakout has already killed the triple divergence on the chart; this trend clearly shows a downward movement. If the Federal Reserve gives any hint in the early morning, Bitcoin will be thrown back to 93.5K to fill that 15-minute gap.
Although it has now surged to 92.6K, which is the first step, if the bulls cannot hold 89.5K, the entire structure will collapse into a mess. Only if it holds can it challenge 94.1K and 96K again. However, when the price reaches the liquidity zone at 96K, it is normal for the bulls to be washed out.
Not to mention it will definitely try again at 94.2K to 94.5K; that range will eventually be tested again. The current long and short volume is also very weak; neither side has the strength, yet both want to pretend to be strong.
A real breakout will not occur today; it will definitely happen tomorrow or the day after, and it is very likely to catch people off guard with a pin. The upper range of 94k to 96k is the key interval; a breakout and stabilization there will qualify for discussions about 100k.
If the lower range of 88k to 90k is broken, the bulls will face a stampede, and the drop will be harsher than you imagine. The current market sentiment is in this state: wanting to rise but not daring to, wanting to fall but also not daring to. Funds are hesitant to take action and can only wait for tomorrow to be forced into a direction.
Let me talk about my current judgment: bullish? That is based on Bitcoin being stable above 92k to 93k and the volume coming back. Once satisfied, it can indeed pull you to 94k to 96k, or even break through hard. But do you really dare to let it drop to 90k for a test? Then that would be a strong bearish kill, directly rolling down to 88k to decide whether the mid-term trend will break.
On the Ethereum side, it’s clearer than Bitcoin. The 3-day moving average golden cross has already lit up. 3420 is the first barrier; those who have low longs should take profit here.
If it really breaks 3420, then the 2-day moving average retest can push it up to 3626 without hesitation. If support at 3170 holds, it will directly target 3400. Tonight's short positions need to be set a bit higher; in this kind of suspended market, you won't even be able to set orders at slightly lower positions.
Looking at the trend:
The current first support is at 92K, which also corresponds to the 20MA. If 92K is broken, the short-term downside will directly open to the second support at 91.2K, which is a range where you can buy in batches.
Currently, the price is ranging overall between 92K and 93.5K, with 90.4K to 91.8K being the previous large support and dense trading area. The last rebound was too vigorous, and the pullback is naturally strong, which is a healthy trend.
92K is the best stop-loss and reversal point for the short term; you can start taking some positions in batches here. If it falls to the second support, you can continue to add, as the risk-reward ratio is quite suitable. The 91.2K level and the long-term moving averages below are also golden zones for building low-cost positions.
The first resistance at 93.5K is the upper edge of the previous range, and it will be strong pressure until it breaks. However, once it breaks, the short-term bulls will significantly strengthen.
The second resistance at 94.2K is the closing high point before last night's surge. To continue climbing, it must break through here, and volume is the key.
Last night's surge was too sudden, with basically no bottom formed below, resulting in a pullback that is harder than expected today. However, this is a normal structure; after a sharp rise, a deep adjustment is inevitable. The real opportunity is to focus on where it stops falling and starts consolidating.
12.10 reference for wave trading:
Long entry reference: Not applicable for now
Short entry reference: 94200-94700 range short Target: 93500-92000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers who show screenshots of long positions today and summaries of short positions tomorrow, making it seem like they are 'always catching the tops and bottoms', but in reality, it's all hindsight. A blogger truly worth following must have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dream maker!
