师爷陈

#美联储降息 Advisor talks hot topics:

Continuing from yesterday's analysis, old Bao's hawkish talk about rate cuts is actually loosening, but his actions are harsher than anyone else's. The market is no longer playing along and is showing its true colors. The only thing that can comfort oneself is the expansion of the balance sheet starting on the 12th.

40 billion to buy short-term bonds to put on a show, splash a bit of water to muddle through emotions. But that dot plot is just sitting there; there will only be one chance for a rate cut next year. Just one. So now, forget about January and March. Want to wait for a rate cut? You at least have to see how the January meeting plays out.

More realistically, old Bao will step down in May next year. What he is doing now is all just a term-limited performance; the real opening of the faucet will have to wait for the new head of the Federal Reserve.

#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:

Tomorrow morning, this lousy Federal Reserve meeting, a 25bp rate cut is basically just a routine matter. I haven't really paid much attention to that, but what I care about is whether the dot plot dares to soften and whether Powell dares to be lenient.

If these two continue to put on a serious face and act like eagles, tomorrow's market will be a slap that brings all the long positions back to reality. Following that, there will be the Japanese monetary policy meeting and a bunch of data ready to hit us.

The surge in the 2-year yield over the past week is the clearest signal that the market has not only priced in a rate cut ahead of time but has also pushed up the average interest rate, neutral rate, and risk premium for the next two years.

#美联储重启降息步伐 Consultant discusses hot topics:

This week's market is all about one thing: everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's announcement at 3 AM on the 11th. First of all, a rate cut is basically a done deal, there's no suspense about that. The key question is whether they dare to lower the expectations for rate cuts next year a bit more dovishly.

If they continue to act hawkish, then get ready for a wave of collective selling. If they dare to soften their tone a bit in line with Trump's wishes, there might be a breather. Because I don't believe at all in the forward guidance coming from these people.

Looking back at last year's end, you can see that the market sentiment was already good around Christmas. Trump won the election, and the rate cut was implemented. But then, old Powell gave a speech that pushed the expectations for rate cuts this year down to two times.

#加密市场观察 Consultant discusses hot topics:

It's Friday, and the macro market this week is still stagnant; everyone is waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will play its cards in December. The market seems calm on the surface, but there are undercurrents everywhere. Whether it’s the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, they are just grinding back and forth in a narrow path.

Including some data from yesterday, it doesn't really mean anything. Not even a splash, as the market is basically focused on the next rate cut, whether it will be 25bp or if there will be a surprise or shock.

And this week probably won’t stir up much action either, most likely just getting by. Next week, we will need to watch the dot plot and Old Powell's speech, with data being thrown out in a series, which will also be my mid-term ambush point.

#加密市场观察 The advisor discusses hot topics:

Last night when that pile of data came out, to be honest, what happened in September is already meaningless. It's all old accounts before the Americans halted, just take a look. What's worth mentioning is the ADP non-farm payroll, this data is simply outrageous. The previous value was revised from 42,000 to 47,000, did you think it was still stable?

As a result, the latest directly turned into -32,000, employment didn't rise but dropped instead, this is the real employment environment in America right now. Once the data was released, the market immediately smelled blood, and the CME's probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketed to 89%. This wave is not just poor employment, it's poor enough to corner the Federal Reserve.

#加密市场回调 The advisor discusses hot topics:

The market's sentiment has indeed flipped dramatically these past two days; the lifeless look on Monday was practically being ground into the ground under the shadow of Japan's interest rate hike. Don't give me excuses about the possibility of no rate hike in December; no one believes that anymore.

Japan's bond yield is there, it's just a blatant actual interest rate hike. That's why the market was so weak on Tuesday during the day; the major news of stopping the balance sheet reduction received absolutely no reaction during the day. I was left completely baffled at that moment; what is this market really about?

As a result, when the U.S. stock market opened at night, it directly surged, and of course, Bitcoin had to follow suit. Additionally, the Federal Reserve secretly added $13.5 billion during the day yesterday, which can be seen as pouring a bit of lubricant into the gears. But don't take it seriously; this is still not easing.

#加密市场回调 The advisor discusses hot topics:

Continuing from yesterday's thoughts on Japan's interest rate hike, I'll say it again, this round of yen interest rate increases is not a joke. For the past decade, the whole world has been taking advantage of Japan's low rates, with interest rates being as good as free, who wouldn't take a bite?

Institutions, retail funds, hedge funds, all using Japan's ultra-low interest rates, treating the yen as a free ATM. Borrowing a ton of yen, exchanging it for dollars, and then going all in on high-risk assets.

The seven sisters of US stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum, emerging market stocks, wherever it goes crazy buying, relying on interest rate spreads + asset appreciation. But now the Bank of Japan suddenly hinted at raising interest rates, even if it's just 0.25%. The interest rate spread is gone, inverted, and the yen has soared.

#加密市场观察 Master discusses hot topics:

On Monday, I opened my eyes and saw the big pancake came again with its punches. The weekly and monthly lines all collapsed, and the bullish sentiment that had been built up over ten days was all regurgitated in just one morning.

After looking at the macro environment of the market, the Japanese central bank governor suddenly turned hawkish, and interest rate hike expectations rose, while U.S. stock index futures also went down to play dead, naturally scaring the market.

The interest rate hike in yen has hit hard, and if the USD/JPY carry trade gets overturned, global liquidity will be affected, as I've mentioned countless times before.

However, this drop wasn't caused by some sudden black swan crushing the market; rather, it was due to the monthly line not breaking through at the end of November, an automatic delivery concentrated explosion, coupled with the American market makers going on holiday, leaving the market deeply hollowed out, where even a slight selling pressure could cause catastrophic effects.

#加密市场反弹 Consultant discusses hot topics:

The recent market is simply surviving on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; everyone is breathing a sigh of relief during this data vacuum period. U.S. stocks will only be open for half a day tonight, and it's unrealistic to expect any significant moves.

Naturally, Bitcoin is also taking the opportunity to inch up during this vacuum period; don't overthink it. The logic is quite simple: when it hit new highs earlier, the whales and super whales were cashing out like crazy, taking profits and running.

Then the Americans created the longest shutdown in history, and the interest rate cut expectations were dashed by a single remark from Powell. But what do the whales think? Prices were driven down, and these guys are sharper than anyone else; of course, they scoop up shares when they get cheaper.