#加密市场观察 Master discusses hot topics:

On Monday, I opened my eyes and saw the big pancake came again with its punches. The weekly and monthly lines all collapsed, and the bullish sentiment that had been built up over ten days was all regurgitated in just one morning.

After looking at the macro environment of the market, the Japanese central bank governor suddenly turned hawkish, and interest rate hike expectations rose, while U.S. stock index futures also went down to play dead, naturally scaring the market.

The interest rate hike in yen has hit hard, and if the USD/JPY carry trade gets overturned, global liquidity will be affected, as I've mentioned countless times before.

However, this drop wasn't caused by some sudden black swan crushing the market; rather, it was due to the monthly line not breaking through at the end of November, an automatic delivery concentrated explosion, coupled with the American market makers going on holiday, leaving the market deeply hollowed out, where even a slight selling pressure could cause catastrophic effects.

Moreover, December is the last interest rate cut of the year, and from December to February next year, there will be a pause in interest rate cuts. During this period, the market has only one direction, still bearish.

Additionally, if Japan truly raises interest rates, that will be the focal point of this global sell-off. Don't doubt it; from December to January, if the market gets overturned by it, this will be the biggest black swan. The long positions piled up above, at least 90% are waiting to be pierced.

This week's data is quite stimulating, with ADP non-farm payrolls on Wednesday. The worse this thing gets, the more favorable it is for interest rate cuts. However, the worse the economy, this is a typical case of celebrating a funeral. Challenger job cuts on Thursday, similarly, the more people are laid off, the happier the Federal Reserve is.

Friday's PCE data is of little significance now, but a lower point can be considered a warm cup of water for the market. Next week there will also be PMI, and Chairman Powell will attend an event to speak, but the Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period, and he can't discuss monetary policy, it's purely for show.

The key point is that the rebound I have been talking about for the past two weeks has ended and we are entering a bear phase. As a result, isn't it just crashing in the faces of those little bears? Those who shout bullish every day are now starting to find excuses again? There is too much noise in the market; the less you trust it now, the safer it may be.

Back to the market, currently I see another major drop around December 4th, this morning's wave does not count. History is lazy to hide itself; on December 3, 2021, Bitcoin experienced a rapid crash overnight. If something odd occurs again between the 1st and 5th of this month, it wouldn't be surprising.

The weekly support for Bitcoin is at 74.6K, this range will eventually be tested repeatedly. On the daily chart, it is a volatile pattern, and as of the time I wrote this analysis, Bitcoin has already broken 86.8K. If it goes down further, I can only directly look at 82K or even 80K.

Speaking of which, if I were the main force, I wouldn't be buying at such a garbage level of 86.8K. There is no struggle in the rebound, and after today, if you want to see Bitcoin above 94K or Ethereum above 3200 this year, I'm sorry, it is highly unlikely that you'll see it.

Currently, Bitcoin is first looking at 85.3K; if it breaks down, it will head straight for 80K or even new lows. For Ethereum, 2803 is the first focal point; if it breaks, wait for a distance retracement to see 2620 or even new lows.

2723 can take a short position, it may hit 2712 or get knocked down to 2688. If you insist on bottom-fishing in the short term, a slightly suitable bottom point is at 2620, with a defense set at 2500. If it breaks that, then just look directly at 2112.


Strategist looks at the trend:

Resistance level reference:

Second resistance level: 90200

First resistance level: 87500

Support level reference:

First support level: 84500

Second support level: 80600

Bitcoin opened in December with a big bearish candle, completely wiping out last week's gains. It also retested the previous low of 84.5K, which is the most important support for this week.

If 84.5K is lost again, it will continue to accelerate downward. Currently, it is a typical long bearish structure. If a lower shadow line buffer or a strong bullish candle that engulfs the previous bearish candle does not appear later, the probability of continuing to drop is extremely high.

Currently, the market shows no signs of replenishment. Without buying interest, don't expect a rebound. To see a technical rebound, it must at least retrace to 87.5K to take a breather. RSI is at 33, not fully oversold yet. There is still space below, and the probability of continuing to move down remains.

The first support closing low of 84.5K is a key defense line, and this is a typical position to look at the risk-reward ratio. If it breaks down, the market will likely head straight for the previous low trading zone, which is the second support at 80.6K.

The first resistance at 87.5K is a position that must be regained in the short term. If it doesn't stand above it, the previous trend will still be dominated by bears. If it breaks above, we will see if the retest can turn into support, which is key for subsequent rebounds.

12.1 strategist wave segment pre-buried:

Long entry reference: not currently applicable

Short entry reference: 87000-87500 range short, target: 86000-84500

If you sincerely want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep following them, not just look at a few market movements and make rash conclusions. This market is full of performers; today they screenshot long positions and tomorrow they summarize short positions, looking like they 'catch tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, they are just making retrospective calls. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, not just jump in after the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dream maker!