#加密市场回调 The advisor discusses hot topics:

The market's sentiment has indeed flipped dramatically these past two days; the lifeless look on Monday was practically being ground into the ground under the shadow of Japan's interest rate hike. Don't give me excuses about the possibility of no rate hike in December; no one believes that anymore.

Japan's bond yield is there, it's just a blatant actual interest rate hike. That's why the market was so weak on Tuesday during the day; the major news of stopping the balance sheet reduction received absolutely no reaction during the day. I was left completely baffled at that moment; what is this market really about?

As a result, when the U.S. stock market opened at night, it directly surged, and of course, Bitcoin had to follow suit. Additionally, the Federal Reserve secretly added $13.5 billion during the day yesterday, which can be seen as pouring a bit of lubricant into the gears. But don't take it seriously; this is still not easing.

The current liquidity is in a semi-crippled state, far from the kind of real financial flow frenzy. Moreover, to put it bluntly, this wave of rising is just being supported by emotions; ending the taper is treated as a good news to speculate on first. Whether the logic can hold is another matter; everyone has rushed in first and will talk later.

But if you ask me, I still regard this wave as a rebound rather than a trend reversal. To completely reverse, one key thing is missing, which is the cancellation of SLR. As soon as this thing is announced, it basically means the Federal Reserve is ready to open the floodgates.

Additionally, on the Chuanzi side, it hasn't calmed down either; yesterday it was directly mentioned that there is only one candidate left for the Federal Reserve Chairman, most likely Hassert. If this knife falls, market expectations will be re-priced. The sensitivity of capital is sharper than a dog's nose; it is completely reasonable to bet on easing in advance.

Good, but another question arises. All emotions are running high; before real cash liquidity flows in on a large scale, how long can this kind of rebound last? Until expectations are fulfilled, everyone is just playing predictions.

Back to the market, let's first look at the more core data. That is the chip structure of Bitcoin above 100K, where about 4.8 million Bitcoins are still held above 100K. Do you think retail investors can pull this off? Normal retail investors have already been shaken out by the recent volatility.

Bitcoin first broke below 100K on November 4, when there were 5.67 million Bitcoins piled above 100K. As a result, during this mad slaughter, only 870,000 were scared into cutting losses. The remaining 85% of the chips are as steady as a rock, not moving an inch. You savor that, you really savor it...


This kind of calm, this kind of toughness, this kind of indifference to the situation, can ordinary people achieve? Don't joke, this is clearly the patient layout of big funds. These people didn't sell during the last drop to 74K, and now a 30% pullback is just like a mosquito bite in their eyes.

Because this round of the bull market is not led by retail investors at all, but by the big monsters like Americans, corporations, ETFs, and institutions. Their holding periods are not a few days or weeks, but months or even years. As long as they can hold on, the market will not disappear.

This also means one thing: as long as these diamond hands do not collapse. If there is no panic selling, it will be difficult to see that kind of cliff-like waterfall drop. Looking at the market, there was a direct V-shaped major counterattack from yesterday to this morning, with at least a net inflow of over a billion dollars.

Capital needs to make a profit; it cannot just push the price up and then immediately smash it back down, that would be slapping its own face, right? So at least in the short term, it won't reverse downward immediately. As long as 83.4K holds, there is no problem; 80.6K is the recent bottom, and generally, the first touch of such a bottom will not break directly.

The 4-hour structure has already pressed once into the pressure zone; if it presses again, we need to watch 93.4K. Two possibilities: one is to form a standard double bottom, directly breaking the neckline, which would be comfortable for the market. The other is to form a converging triangle, pulling back near 93.4K, but as long as it doesn't break 83.7K, it still leans bullish.

Ethereum's distribution structure is basically complete; it is currently in a period of oscillation repair + rebound. 2850 has already been broken twice before recovering; this position is not unimportant. As long as it breaks through 3060, moving towards 3230 is not surprising at all; further up is the old resistance level of 3660.

Master looks at the trend:

Resistance level reference:

Second resistance level: 96300

First resistance level: 93200

Support level reference:

First support level: 90400

Second support level: 88800

Currently, the key support for Bitcoin below is in the range of 120MA and 90.4K, which falls within the range of normal pullbacks and reasonable adjustments. The second resistance is at 88.8K, 20MA, and 60MA; breaking this level would return the bearish trend.

The first resistance is at 93.2K; if it breaks here, the upper downward trend line will be re-tested, with hopes of attempting a trend reversal. Currently, the price is stabilizing near the midpoint; as long as these key supports hold, the bullish structure remains.

The RSI index is at 63, not yet officially in the overbought zone, but already close to the edge. Typically, the RSI will make another short push before entering the overbought zone. Therefore, this wave of rising can expect to surge higher, followed by a healthy pullback, which is a typical wait for a pullback to ambush the market.

Today, focus on the first support at 90.4K; if it doesn't break, it is a reasonable adjustment and also a short-term low-risk entry area. Since we have seen a V rebound, the subsequent adjustment strength and form are key.

Once the first resistance of 93.2K is broken, the probability of re-testing the downward trend line will greatly increase. Only after a real breakthrough and stabilization can the market officially enter a trend reversal expectation. 93K is the most critical pressure point today; whether it can stabilize will determine the short-term rhythm.

12.3 Master’s band pre-burial:

Long entry reference: 90400 with a small stop-loss for light positions, target: 92000

Short selling entry reference: 93200-94000 range short, target: 92000-90400

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you must continuously follow them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performance-oriented players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, looking like they 'always catch the top and bottom,' but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger's trading logic must be consistent, self-coherent, and withstand scrutiny, rather than jumping on the bandwagon only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and fragmented screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are required to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamweaver!