Bitcoin Returns to $90,000: A Christmas Celebration or a Nightmare?
Regardless of the country, the atmosphere of family reunions during the holidays always stirs market emotions. The fourth Thursday of November in the United States, this year became the 'Thanksgiving Moment' for the cryptocurrency circle—Bitcoin strongly returned to the $90,000 mark, relieving countless investors.
This surge is by no means simply driven by 'holiday trading'. A Federal Reserve 'Beige Book', unexpectedly becoming a key reference due to the U.S. government shutdown, has completely rewritten the monetary policy direction for the year-end. The report shows that U.S. economic activity is stagnating, consumer spending is further declining, and the job market is moderately cooling. Coupled with several Federal Reserve officials signaling support for interest rate cuts, market expectations for a rate cut in December have sharply risen. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has soared from 20% a week ago to 86%, and the CME 'FedWatch' tool also shows a rate cut probability of 85%. Institutions like JPMorgan have urgently reversed their forecasts, betting on a rate cut starting in December.
The expectation of liquidity easing has become the 'stimulant' for crypto assets. When the Federal Reserve's stance turns dovish, major global economies simultaneously enter an easing cycle, creating a window for crypto assets amid volatility in the traditional financial system. Additionally, as the U.S. incorporates some cryptocurrencies into its official asset reserves and the global regulatory framework gradually clarifies, mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin are迎来 seasonal and policy resonance at a key juncture.
However, beneath the celebration, risks have never dissipated. The issue of insufficient depth in the cryptocurrency market remains, with prices reacting extremely to news. Bitcoin has previously experienced dramatic fluctuations, such as 'dropping over 5% in a single day' and 'falling below $80,000'. During the reconstruction of global regulatory rules, policy uncertainty persists, and whether the expectation of rate cuts can be realized on schedule and whether easing liquidity can continue to flow into the crypto market remains unknown.
When the festive atmosphere meets market frenzy, the upcoming Christmas will be a grand celebration of Bitcoin breaking new highs or a 'Christmas crash' amid high-level corrections? The answer may be hidden in the final decision of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. #美联储降息 $BTC
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