拾年航海

凌晨三点诸神黄昏
最近降息预期，市场最近已经炒烂了
就看点阵图敢不敢松口，敢不敢服软
要是继续嘴硬装鹰
市场绝对一巴掌扇醒所有多头
后面还排着日本央行、一堆数据连环锤。
美债收益率狂飙 = 市场根本不信降息有用
英伟达连跌两周 = 资金正在撤离热度
利率预期全面上修 = 共识是降了也白降
散户要搞明白
不是降息就能拉盘
当市场自己都不信政策的时候
流动性收缩才是主旋律
别赌利好落地
真正的方向要等会议开完
情绪杀干净才会浮现
诸神之战，多看少动$BTC
$ETH
$XRP

降息落地之日，极可能是Btc暴跌之时！

小诸葛为什么这样说？四大信号已经摆在眼前：

1.订单簿压力山大——9.4w上方巨量卖盘疯狂堆积，空气都开始凝固。
主力压单压得这么明显，想冲过去？难！

2.ETF 昨日价格反弹时依然净流出 6000 万美金。
谁在买？散户、大户。
谁在卖？ETF 机构。
资金结构已经告诉你：这不是健康的上涨。

3.四小时多头量能持续衰减。
反弹是反弹，但力道在变弱。
空间有限，持续性更堪忧。

4.第三次冲击9.4w大概率失败。
市场铁律：三攻不破，必有大跌。
这个位置不是压力，是铁幕。

所以我才说——今日降息，很可能不是牛市庆典，而是主力收割的开始。$BTC $ETH

1.大家最关心的“”山寨季”，我告诉大家绝不是现在，至少1个月内，不会有，原因是大饼主升浪没有结束。
2.别看瑞波，狗狗，为代表的老币经历了一波炒作，但那绝不代表所有的山寨都会爆炒，时机不对。
3.山寨牛市，准确的爆发时机，在大饼主升浪后期，也就是大饼进入垃圾时间，才是山寨爆发时间。
4.本轮牛市，比特币半年内，目标价35万u不变，这个观点不变。要相信这轮牛市是个大牛。$BTC
$ETH
$XRP

Closing your eyes and pulling the market of u, if you still lose, it proves you are incompetent! $BTC

蓝战非在南非被绑架了

他之前说他不相信女人，不相信爱情。

嗯……我想他相信的应该是包里的钱钱

包里有票子，走遍天下都不怕🤔

好嘛，这回在南非，涨人生阅历了

不知道他以后还会不会高调畅游全球了呢？

我觉得这个示范一出，大概率会有更多的劫匪盯上他。

这么一说，我突然想起了前几天抢劫比特币的事儿。

交易所把比特币持有者的地址泄露了，直接上门抓人，抓完之后一通大记忆恢复术，比特币洗劫一空。😂😂😂$BTC

Today's main theme is to see whether BTC will take the opportunity of the Black Swan arriving on Friday to break through. According to the current logic, after breaking through, especially after a real break in the US market, the follow-up of mainstream funds will not be less. Whether it can break out, today is the last chance. $BTC

The operations of market makers (institutions, whales, project parties, etc.) in the cryptocurrency market are far more aggressive than in traditional finance, due to 24/7 trading, high leverage, lack of regulation, and extreme retail sentiment. The core logic is as follows:

Cash flow is the lifeline, market capitalization can be manipulated: Pumping is only for selling at a high price, the formula is: Pumping cost < selling profit + low position buyback return.

First control public opinion, then control prices: Through KOL promotions, community water armies, and manipulation of emotions (euphoria → panic), let retail investors voluntarily hold until the market maker sells.

High position distribution is the ultimate goal: Utilize sideways “accumulation”, false breakouts, combined with positive news, to induce retail investors to chase high prices.

Wash trading creates false prosperity: Buying and selling to create fake trading volume, wash trading, drawing attractive candlestick patterns, and earning rebates from exchanges.

Leverage is an efficient harvesting tool: Inducing long positions through pumping followed by liquidations, or crashing shorts and then pumping, cleaning out retail contracts in both directions.

Information advantage is absolutely leading: Gaining key information such as listings, KOL collaborations, ecosystem support in advance, and even using MEV bots to front-run trades.

Focus on market capitalization rather than projects: Most hundred-fold coins rely on low circulation, violent pump to create FOMO, and then continue to distribute during unlocks.

The perfect ending is a return to zero: After selling off, the project runs away or stagnates, and the coin price returns to zero. Due to anonymity and regulatory gaps, market makers can make off with huge profits.

Top players create new narratives: From ICOs, DeFi to NFTs, Memes, market makers lead the cycle of the track, harvesting the funds and beliefs of an entire era.

The core difference lies in: Retail investors chase prices, while market makers manipulate human nature. Retail investors always believe "this time is different," but market makers understand "this time is the same, we can harvest again."

Therefore, the true anti-harvesting mindset is: Do not become the last one to take over in the carnival, and always remember — if you haven't figured out who the scythe is, you are the scythe yourself.
$BTC

Exploded, everyone! In the past two days, two ceiling-level big shots in the industry, one with words and the other with money, have given the market a strong shot in the arm!
First, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, who manages 10 trillion dollars, publicly slapped his own face! At the New York Times summit, he admitted that he was wrong to previously call Bitcoin a 'money laundering tool'! Now he not only changed his tune, calling Bitcoin 'digital gold', but his firm's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) is already the largest in the world. The walls of traditional finance are collapsing before our eyes.
Next, one of Wall Street's top cryptocurrency analysts, Tom Lee of Fundstrat, directly expressed his views with real money! On-chain proof shows that his controlled BitMine organization has crazily purchased over 370 million dollars worth of ETH in just over a week! This isn't a short-term gamble; he publicly stated that he believes the recently completed Fusaka upgrade (which set a gas limit for transactions and enhanced security) is a major positive, with a long-term view of 7,000-9,000 dollars!
One admits their mistake, one goes on a buying spree, the signal has become glaring. This is not just a lot of noise in the news; it's also a change in the underlying logic: Ethereum is becoming stronger and more scalable through technological upgrades like 'hard invariants', while both traditional and new whales are voting with their feet, accelerating their entry.
Do you think the shift of these big shots is the trumpet call for a rapid return of the bull market, or just the beginning of a new round of stories? #ETH巨鲸增持 $ETH

When CZ issues a 'new high' warning, Musk rarely names Bitcoin—these signals are never arbitrary. History repeatedly confirms that figures of this level often only publicly express themselves when a trend has formed and momentum is irreversible. They do not need to chase the bottom but instead drive consensus, fanning the flames of the market even higher. The very act of speaking at this magnitude can change expectations; the main players find it hard to resist the public opinion momentum of tech leaders, and market trends are often elongated and accelerated as a result.

CZ's statement 'I predict many more ATHs coming soon' is not just simple talk. The data supports this: after he publicly predicted 'new highs' in December 2020, December 2024, and June 2025, Bitcoin entered a strong main upward wave each time. And yesterday, December 2025, he issued the same signal again.

True explosive market conditions often occur in the bull tail phase. As some observers have pointed out, if starting from $80,000, this round of gains could point to 150%-200%—far exceeding the 120% and 70% from the previous two cycles. But note, altcoins do not necessarily wait for Bitcoin to surge to $120,000. Market funds always seek opportunities in rotation and restructuring. Just like in the last cycle, Ethereum soared from $1,400 to $5,000, which happened precisely when Bitcoin was undergoing a volatile correction—funds often migrate quietly and take off against the wind when mainstream assets rest.

Trends accelerate in consensus, and opportunities brew in rotation. The speeches of big figures are not just voices but also directions. $BTC

Who understands!! Following Teacher Xiao Ye's operations really feels like cheating! Recently, while others are getting liquidated, I'm counting money, hitting my take profit points so many times that my hands are sore. A friend asked me if I'm the only one at the exchange 😎$BTC

December 2013, China 5 ministries
September 2017, China 7 ministries
May 2021, China 10 ministries
November 2025, China 13 ministries
Precision every four years, it seems that the one who understands the Bitcoin four-year cycle law the best is still China!
Unfortunately, the number of ministries is increasing, and $BTC price keeps rising!

December Cryptocurrency Volatility Guide: Keep a Close Eye on These Days

December in the cryptocurrency market is known as the "Roller Coaster Month" with three key events coming together, making volatility potentially more intense than usual!
First, let's look at these major "headliner" days:
December 11: Federal Reserve meeting, Powell's statements directly influence market sentiment; a single comment can make cryptocurrency prices shake significantly;
December 16: Non-farm payroll data released, the state of employment affects interest rate cut expectations, which has a considerable impact on risk assets like cryptocurrencies;
December 20: The triple witching day coincides with the largest options expiration in history, the contest between bulls and bears may be fiercer, and market makers might take the opportunity to "squeeze" profits.

Most importantly, these days are all clustered around the middle of the month, making it hard for the market not to be lively! If you continue to hold onto a one-sided market, the risks could be very high.

Here’s a simple operational suggestion:
Spot trading: Don't panic; if there is a real crash, it could be a good opportunity for dollar-cost averaging;
Contract trading: Be cautious; playing with a light position is fine, but don’t bet heavily on direction, or you might find yourself being forcibly liquidated without a place to complain;
Focus on two days: December 11 and 20, these two "nuclear bomb days" are likely to have the most significant volatility.

Risk Reminder: December is packed with data and events, market fluctuations could be extreme, experience the "roller coaster" at any moment, and always prioritize the safety of your principal!#$BTC

Bitcoin Returns to $90,000: A Christmas Celebration or a Nightmare?

Regardless of the country, the atmosphere of family reunions during the holidays always stirs market emotions. The fourth Thursday of November in the United States, this year became the 'Thanksgiving Moment' for the cryptocurrency circle—Bitcoin strongly returned to the $90,000 mark, relieving countless investors.

This surge is by no means simply driven by 'holiday trading'. A Federal Reserve 'Beige Book', unexpectedly becoming a key reference due to the U.S. government shutdown, has completely rewritten the monetary policy direction for the year-end. The report shows that U.S. economic activity is stagnating, consumer spending is further declining, and the job market is moderately cooling. Coupled with several Federal Reserve officials signaling support for interest rate cuts, market expectations for a rate cut in December have sharply risen. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has soared from 20% a week ago to 86%, and the CME 'FedWatch' tool also shows a rate cut probability of 85%. Institutions like JPMorgan have urgently reversed their forecasts, betting on a rate cut starting in December.

The expectation of liquidity easing has become the 'stimulant' for crypto assets. When the Federal Reserve's stance turns dovish, major global economies simultaneously enter an easing cycle, creating a window for crypto assets amid volatility in the traditional financial system. Additionally, as the U.S. incorporates some cryptocurrencies into its official asset reserves and the global regulatory framework gradually clarifies, mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin are迎来 seasonal and policy resonance at a key juncture.

However, beneath the celebration, risks have never dissipated. The issue of insufficient depth in the cryptocurrency market remains, with prices reacting extremely to news. Bitcoin has previously experienced dramatic fluctuations, such as 'dropping over 5% in a single day' and 'falling below $80,000'. During the reconstruction of global regulatory rules, policy uncertainty persists, and whether the expectation of rate cuts can be realized on schedule and whether easing liquidity can continue to flow into the crypto market remains unknown.

When the festive atmosphere meets market frenzy, the upcoming Christmas will be a grand celebration of Bitcoin breaking new highs or a 'Christmas crash' amid high-level corrections? The answer may be hidden in the final decision of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. #美联储降息 $BTC
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Trend is king, and this is the unchanging core logic of the cryptocurrency market.

Recently, Bitcoin's rebound strength has been weak, and the bear market downtrend has officially been established. In terms of key signals, the contract funding rate has completed the switch from positive to negative, and market dominance has shifted from bulls to bears. Once a downtrend is formed, it often has strong inertia, making reversal extremely difficult; therefore, current short positions can continue to be held firmly.

Looking ahead, a new round of Bitcoin's decline is highly likely to start soon. It should be noted that investors accustomed to spot trading are not advised to blindly participate in short-selling operations. The optimal strategy at present is still to remain in cash and wait for clearer market signals. $BTC

Mutual support, we are good friends

Beginner's Guide to Avoiding Pitfalls in Cryptocurrency Contracts: The First Lesson to Survive

Want to get involved in contract trading? Stay calm! This is the fastest way to reverse wealth in the cryptocurrency world, but the direction can lead to zero. Today, I will share some basic understandings and painful lessons to help you recognize the risks. This is absolutely not investment advice!
1. Basic Understanding: Understand the rules before discussing making money
1. Perpetual contracts are mainstream: There is no expiration date, operations are flexible, but risks are always present. Beginners should start by understanding it.
2. Leverage is a double-edged sword: 🚨 This is the core risk! It can amplify profits, but it can also instantly consume your principal. Beginners must test the waters with low leverage (like within 5 times) to deeply feel its power.
3. Stop-loss is a lifeline: Always set a stop-loss when opening a position! This is the only means to control the maximum loss of a single trade and protect your principal. Not setting a stop-loss is like driving without a seatbelt.
4. Choosing the right platform is key: Safety first! Prefer mainstream platforms with good reputations and large scales. Small platforms have extremely high risks of bankruptcy; do not lose big due to low fees.
2. Risk Management: Discipline is more important than technique
· Refuse to hold on to losing trades: Don’t fantasize that the market will turn around when you’re losing; decisively stop-loss. Preserving capital is always the top priority.
· Stay away from high leverage: High leverage is a "highway" to liquidation; data shows that its liquidation rate is extremely high. Restrain greed!
· Never go all in: No matter how optimistic you are, you must operate with multiple accounts and keep enough reserve funds. The market is unpredictable; always leave yourself an exit route.
3. Absolute Red Lines: Touching them makes liquidation easy
· Do not touch skyrocketing "meme coins": Currencies that are abnormally surging are often traps and can easily turn you into a bag holder.
· Eliminate trading without stop-loss: This is an extremely irresponsible action towards your funds.
· Do not blindly chase highs and cut losses: Emotional trading is the root cause of losses.
Final reminder: Contract trading is extremely risky and may lead to a total loss of principal. This article is only for knowledge dissemination and is absolutely not investment advice. Before entering the market, be sure to study deeply, make independent decisions, and be responsible for every penny you invest.

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$BTC $ETH $BNB

Attention, warriors of sharing your wins. The tax authorities are easily able to find you; don't think that showing off your real trading results is impressive. Whether in China or the West, the tax circle is specifically working for you 😂.
#税务审查 $BTC #美SEC推动加密创新监管

On December 11, an analysis of trends for the next month

Bitcoin has been affected by the U.S. government's reopening, releasing favorable news and rising to the resistance level of 107400 before pulling back. There are no significant positive developments in the near term, and the bearish trend remains inevitable.

The volatility in the crypto market is primarily influenced by policy, followed by market sentiment.
This major correction belongs to a structural adjustment in a bull market, not the arrival of a bear market. It may follow the script from early this year to April, with Bitcoin predicted to eventually pull back to the 88,000 to 92,000 level.

Ethereum may pull back to the 2500 to 2700 level.
BNB may pull back to the range of 770 to 850.

Spot trading will encounter a golden pit at this time.
In the next three to five days, the market is expected to remain in sideways fluctuations, entering a phase of accumulation, with predictions for a start next Monday or Tuesday.

If the bears prevail, the price will first rise to the 112,000 level to liquidate short positions.
Conversely, it will drop to the 93,000 level to liquidate long positions.

The above content is an analysis from Ten Years of Navigation, not investment advice. We hope everyone manages risk well and makes more money.
$BTC $ETH $BNB